Atlantic Tropical System a Potential Threat

[Jolie Rouge]

For the last couple of days we've been tracking a tropical wave moving westward in the Atlantic Ocean. These tropical waves are typical this time of year and we monitor each one very closely for any signs of development into a tropical depression, tropical storm or eventually a hurricane.

In the case of this tropical wave, it's no different. The environment is expected to become more favorable for development over the next few days as this wave moves east. A tropical depression or tropical storm could form in the coming days.

Below is the expected timing and path of this system provided by our Hurricane Expert Dr. Rick Knabb, Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross and Senior Meteorologist Stu Ostro.

Expected Path, Timing of Atlantic Tropical System

http://www.weather.com/weather/hurri...tem_2011-08-18


Tropical Storm Harvey in the Caribbean

Tropical Depression Eight, which formed off the coast of Central America late Thursday night, has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Harvey as of Friday afternoon. This is the eighth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season.

As you can see on the projected path map below, Tropical Storm Harvey will track west into Central America over the weekend, with the primary threat being locally heavy rainfall. This system will not be a threat to the U.S.


Atlantic Tropical System Impacts: What You Need to Know



Regardless of development, heavy rain along with possible flooding and mudslides are expected in the northeast Caribbean later this weekend. This is depicted on our threat level graphic below.

The steering pattern is favorable for this system to track towards the southeast United States after moving through the Caribbean.

Impacts on the United States are uncertain and are dependent on many factors, including how much land interaction in the northeast Caribbean disrupts the system. Therefore, we are depicting the threat to the Southeast below as "low", for now, due to the uncertainty this far out in time.

Timing for possible U.S. impacts would be later next week. As always, stay tuned to The Weather Channel and weather.com for the latest updates on this situation. Tune in at :50 after each hour for a full look at the tropics.

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[Jolie Rouge]

tropical storm irene advisory number 2
irene approaching the leeward islands

summary of 1100 pm ast...0300 utc...information

location...15.3n 59.9w about 95 mi...150 km e of dominica
about 120 mi...195 km se of guadeloupe
maximum sustained winds...50 mph...85 km/h
present movement...w or 280 degrees at 22 mph...35 km/h
minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches


watches and warnings : Changes in watches and warnings with this advisory... The government of the dominican republic has issued a tropical storm watch for the south coast of the dominican republic from the haiti border to cabo engano.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect... A tropical storm warning is in effect for * puerto rico...u.s. Virgin islands...vieques and culebra * saba...st. Eustatius...and st. Maartin * dominica * barbuda...st. Kitts... Nevis... Antigua... Anguilla... Montserrat * british virgin islands

a tropical storm watch is in effect for... * south coast of the dominican republic from the haiti border to
cabo engano tropical storm conditions could occur elsewhere in the northern leeward islands tonight and early sunday.

Hurricane conditions could occur in the dominican republic late on monday.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook ---- at 1100 pm ast...0300 utc...the center of tropical storm irene was located near latitude 15.3 north...longitude 59.9 west. Irene is moving toward the west near 22 mph...35 km/h...and a motion toward
west-northwest at a slower rate of speed is expected during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track...irene will pass through the leeward islands early sunday...and move into the northeastern caribbean sea later on sunday. Irene could approach the dominican republic late monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph...85 km/h...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and irene could become a hurricane on monday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 120 miles...195 km...mainly to the north and east of the center. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.


Hazards affecting land -- wind...tropical storm conditions are expected in the leeward islands overnight into sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin sunday afternoon in the virgin islands and puerto rico.
Hurricane conditions are possible over the dominican republic by late monday with tropical storm conditions possible by monday afternoon.

Rainfall...irene is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 7 inches in the leeward islands...puerto rico and the virgin islands...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 10 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in areas of steep terrain.

Storm surge...a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the warning area. Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

Next intermediate advisory...200 am ast.

Next complete advisory...500 am ast.

~~ forecaster blake/brennan

[Jolie Rouge]

Tropical Storm Irene barrels toward Puerto Rico
By DANICA COTO - Associated Press | AP – 2 hrs 11 mins ago

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) — Tropical Storm Irene barreled toward Puerto Rico late Sunday after hitting St. Croix, packing heavy rains and winds that closed airports and flooded low-lying areas in the Leeward Islands.

The fast-moving storm, moving west-northwest at roughly 15 mph (24 kph), was taking an unpredictable path that left people in the islands of the U.S. Caribbean anxious about the winds and rain to come.

On its current forecast track, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Irene was expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico late Sunday with maximum winds of 60 mph (95 kph). It's expected to strengthen into a hurricane on Monday as it approaches Hispaniola, the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Nearly 600,000 people in Haiti still live without shelter after last year's earthquake.

On Sunday night, Irene's center was some 90 miles (145 kilometers) east-southeast of Puerto Rico.

Puerto Rico's main airport was swamped with people, the usual Sunday crowds combined with people rushing to get off the island before the storm or stranded because flights to a number of other islands had been canceled. There were long lines at check-in counters and at the airport hotel.

Jenny Chappell of Richmond, Virginia, returning from a weeklong business trip in Puerto Rico, was among those booking a room at the airport hotel, assuming that her 1 a.m. flight, at the height of the storm, would be canceled.

"My friend told me get a room, get some water, get some snacks because if anything goes down you'll need it," Chappell said.

Strong winds and battering rain were expected late Sunday over Puerto Rico, including its outlying islands of Culebra and Vieques, where 150 tourists were evacuated, according to Gov. Luis Fortuno. At least 4,000 people were without power and another 13,000 without water as the storm approached. U.S. forecasters had earlier expected the storm's center to pass just south of Puerto Rico's southern coast, but now said it could pass near or over the island of nearly 4 million inhabitants.

"The storm is wobbling a little bit. It is moving more to the west-northwest than we anticipated earlier," said Cristina Forbes, an oceanographer at the center. Sustained winds must reach 74 mph (119 kph) for the storm to be classified as a hurricane.

In the U.S. Virgin Islands, Gov. John deJongh declared a state of emergency in order to impose storm curfews.

"We've got what appears to be a direct hit on St. Croix," said governor spokesman Jean Greaux, who did not immediately have details about any possible damage on the largest and poorest of the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Emergency shelters were opened on St. Croix, where the port was closed. The Hovensa LLC refinery on St. Croix also closed its port because of the storm but operations remained normal at the refinery, one of the largest in the Western Hemisphere, said spokesman Steve Strahan.

In the southeastern Puerto Rican town of Patillas, Edgar Morales, owner of a roadside food stall, was one of the few business owners who opened Sunday despite the approaching storm.

"We're going to stay open until God allows it," said Morales, 35, who scanned TV news about the tropical storm with some of his customers.

Jose Rivas, 46, said he woke up early Sunday to place storm shutters on his house, fill his car with gas and take out money. He said he and his wife along with their two sons will spend the night at a hotel next to their house in Patillas.

"We'll leave as soon as the sea starts rising," he said.

In advance of Irene, Puerto Rican authorities urged islanders to secure their homes and pick up debris that high winds could turn into dangerous projectiles. Maritime officials advised people to stay away from the ocean because Irene could bring a dangerous storm surge to the coast.

"I strongly recommend that swimmers and recreational boaters avoid the ocean and that the general public stay away from shoreline rocks until the tropical storm passes and weather and surf conditions normalize," said Capt. Drew Pearson, a U.S. Coast Guard commander.

All schools and nearly all government offices in Puerto Rico will remain closed on Monday, Fortuno said.

The National Hurricane Center said the main impediment to the storm's progress over the next couple of days will be interaction with land. If Irene passes over Hispaniola's mountains or over parts of eastern Cuba, the storm could weaken more than currently expected.

"However, if the system ends up moving to the north of both of those land masses it could strengthen more than expected," wrote forecaster Richard Pasch.

The center's current forecast has Irene hitting southern Florida as a hurricane by Thursday.

Early Sunday, the storm churned up rough surf along a group of small islands in the eastern Caribbean that includes Antigua & Barbuda, St. Kitts & Nevis, Guadeloupe, and St. Maarten.

The storm caused some flooding in low-lying areas, and several countries and territories reported scattered power outages, but there were no immediate reports of serious damage or injuries. The storm was expected to dump up to 7 inches (18 centimeters) of rain on the islands.

Forecasters said tropical storm force winds extended outward up to 150 miles (240 kilometers), mainly to the north of Irene's center.

___

Associated Press writers Ben Fox in San Juan, Puerto Rico, Anika Kentish in St. John's, Antigua, Carlisle Jno Baptiste in Roseau, Dominica and Judi Shimel in Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands contributed to this report.

http://news.yahoo.com/tropical-storm...160652097.html

Nearly 600,000 people in Haiti still live without shelter after last year's earthquake.

Despite all the aide that poured into that country, this figure is pathetic

~~

Something to think about: Tampa, Florida hasn't been struck by a hurricane since 1928. Tampa is only a few dozen feet above sea level; so any storm surge from Irene would fill it up like a bowl such as depicted of NYC in the movie "The Day After Tomorrow". The damage caused by a storm surge from Irene would be worse than what damage Katrina caused in New Orleans.
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[Jolie Rouge]

Hurricane Irene marks 1st big US threat in years
By CURT ANDERSON - Associated Press | AP – 3 mins 2 secs ago

MIAMI (AP) — Emergency officials from Florida to the Carolinas were closely watching Irene Tuesday as the first hurricane to seriously threaten the U.S. in three years churned over energizing tropical waters. The storm has already cut a destructive path through the Caribbean.

Forecasters say the hurricane could grow to a monstrous Category 4 storm with winds of more than 131 mph before it's predicted to come ashore this weekend on the U.S. mainland. The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami expected Irene to reach Category 3 strength on Tuesday, said spokesman Dennis Feltgen.

Officials could begin issuing watches for parts of the U.S. mainland later in the day. Because the storm is so large, Florida could begin feeling some effects from the storm late Wednesday.

Current government models have the storm's outer bands sweeping Florida late this week before it takes aim at the Carolinas this weekend, though forecasters caution that predictions made days in advance can be off by hundreds of miles. Georgia is also likely to be affected.

The last hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. was Ike, which pounded Texas in 2008.

For now, the first Atlantic hurricane of the season had maximum sustained winds early Tuesday around 100 mph (160 kph) and was centered about 55 miles (90 kilometers) northeast of Puerto Plata in the Dominican Republic. The hurricane was moving west-northwest near 10 mph (17 kph). "For residents in states that may be affected later this week, it's critical that you take this storm seriously," said Craig Fugate, administrator at the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Emergency officials in North Carolina were checking "pre-landfall operations" to make sure equipment such as trucks, forklifts, generators and computers were working, said Ernie Seneca, spokesman for the state Department of Crime Control and Public Safety. Also, they were taking inventory of food and water supplies.

To the south in Miami, Julio Gonzalez was heeding the warnings and headed to a hardware store to pick up what he needed to protect his home. "I'm gonna board up," he said Monday. "It's best to play it safe."

Others were stocking up on bottled water and plywood. And Hurricane Irene was trending on Twitter, with many users sharing updates on the storm's progress while others hoped it wouldn't come their way. "We want to make sure Floridians are paying attention," said Bryan Koon, director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, who met Monday with the governor. "We are at the height of the hurricane season right now. If it's not Hurricane Irene, it could be the follow-up storm that impacts us."

After several extremely active years, Florida has not been struck by a hurricane since Wilma raked across the state's south in October 2005. That storm was responsible for at least five deaths in the state and came two months after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita devastated New Orleans and the entire Gulf Coast.

Irene slashed directly across Puerto Rico, tearing up trees and knocking out power to more than a million people. It then headed out to sea, north of the Dominican Republic, where the powerful storm's outer bands were buffeting the north coast with dangerous sea surge and downpours. President Barack Obama declared an emergency for Puerto Rico, making it eligible for federal help.

Irene was forecast to pass over or near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas by Tuesday night and be near the central Bahamas early Wednesday. In the U.K. territory of the Turks and Caicos, a steady stream of customers bought plywood and nails at hardware stores, while others readied storm shutters and emergency kits at home. "I can tell you I don't want this storm to come. It looks like it could get bad, so I've definitely got to get my boats out of the water," said Dedrick Handfield at the North Caicos hardware store where he works.

Many of the center's computer models had the storm veering northward away from Florida's east coast toward Georgia and the Carolinas. A hurricane center forecast map said the storm's center could come ashore in one of the states on Saturday or Sunday, but forecasters said much was still unclear. "In terms of where it's going to go, there is still a pretty high level of uncertainty," said Wallace Hogsett, a National Hurricane Center meteorologist. "It's a very difficult forecast in terms of when it's going to turn northward."

In South Carolina, emergency agencies went on alert for what could be the first hurricane to hit there in seven years. "This is potentially a very serious hurricane," longtime Charleston Mayor Joseph P. Riley Jr. said. He led Charleston's recovery from the massive destruction of Hurricane Hugo's 135 mph winds and waves back in 1989.

It's been more than a century since Georgia has taken a direct hit from a Category 3 storm or greater. That was in 1893 and the last hurricane to make landfall along the state's 100-mile coast was David, which caused only minor damage when it struck in 1979.

Across Florida, emergency management agencies were closely monitoring Irene's movements and track. They urged residents to make sure they have batteries, drinking water, food and other supplies available in case Irene takes aim at the state. "We must prepare for the worst and hope for the best," said Joe Martinez, chairman of the Miami-Dade County Commission.

Gov. Scott met with state emergency management officials and the state meteorologist, poring over detailed charts involving windspeed and steering currents. Scott, a first-term Republican who has not experienced a hurricane as governor, asked questions such as how much advanced notice would be needed for evacuations of low-lying areas. "Irene's going to be close," Amy Godsey, the state meteorologist, told Scott. "We're not out of the woods yet."

Scott replied, "I'm an optimist."

http://news.yahoo.com/hurricane-iren...071828290.html

comments

I put this together for all of you with the misconception that because it doesn't hit the US that there where no hurricanes 2010 was a record year the reason 2009 was somewhat quiet was the El nino effect. If a tree falls in the woods?

The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season was a very active hurricane season with sixteen named storms formed, including eight that became hurricanes and five that became major hurricanes

The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season was a below-average year, unlike the 2009 Pacific hurricane season, which was above average, both due to a moderate El Niño. During this year, nine tropical storms formed, the fewest since the 1997 season. Although Tropical Depression One formed on May 28, the season officially began on June 1, 2009 and ended on November 30. The season's last storm, Hurricane Ida dissipated on November 10. The season had eleven tropical depressions, of which nine intensified into tropical storms, three became hurricanes, and two became major hurricanes.

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was a well above average season due to a moderate La Niña, with the most number of named storms since the 2005 season. The 2010 Atlantic season ties with the 1995 Atlantic hurricane season and the 1887 Atlantic hurricane season for the third largest number of named storms, with 19, and it also ties with the 1969 Atlantic hurricane season for the second largest number of hurricanes, with 12. In addition, the activity in the north Atlantic in 2010 exceeded the activity in the northwest Pacific Typhoon season. The only other known time this event happened was in 2005.

[Jolie Rouge]

Hurricane Irene's latest forecast puts highly populated Northeast cities, including New York, under a hurricane threat that the region hasn't seen in a generation. We cannot stress enough that you need to watch Irene's developments very closely from North Carolina to Maine.


HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...IRENE BEARING DOWN ON THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

LOCATION...21.1N 71.8W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS, THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH ... LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK ... THE
CORE OF IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ... AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ... AND NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER ... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY... WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE ... AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ... AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST... THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS... AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

[Jolie Rouge]

U.S. East Coast alerted to Hurricane Irene threat
By Neil Hartnell | Reuters – 4 hrs ago

NASSAU (Reuters) - The U.S. put its eastern seaboard on alert for Hurricane Irene on Tuesday as the powerful storm barreled up from the Caribbean on a path that could hit the U.S. coast on the weekend.

Even as the first hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic season pounded the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas with battering winds and rain and dangerous storm surge, coastal residents in Florida and the Carolinas were preparing for Irene's approach.

"I pray God's blessing on us all," Bahamas Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham said as he urged residents of his Atlantic archipelago nation southeast of Florida to take shelter.

Irene is the ninth named storm of the busy June-through-November season and looks set to be the first hurricane to hit the United States since Ike pounded the Texas coast in 2008.

It weakened on Tuesday to a Category 1 hurricane on the five-step Saffir Simpson scale of intensity, but could strengthen into a major Category 3 storm with winds over 111 miles per hour (178 km per hour) by Thursday, the Hurricane Center forecasters said.

While warning the entire U.S. East Coast to be on the alert, Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Craig Fugate and National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read said it was too early to be certain where Irene would directly hit the coastline.

"We're going to have a very large tropical cyclone move up the Eastern Seaboard over the next five to seven days," Read said on a conference call in which he spoke along with Fugate.

The "best guess" forecast was that it would approach the coast of the Carolinas on Saturday morning as a major storm of Category 3 or upward, Read said.

After that, the already saturated New England region of the East Coast could also be at particular risk for torrential rains, high winds and flooding from Irene, Fugate said. Major eastern cities like Washington and New York could feel some impact from Irene, the forecast indicated.

In a separate development, a magnitude 5.9 earthquake struck the U.S. East Coast, shaking Washington, New York and other cities.

Irene could put a damper on Sunday's dedication ceremony for the new memorial honoring civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jnr. on Washington's National Mall. Tens of thousands of people, including President Barack Obama, were expected to attend.

Forecasts showed Irene posing no threat to U.S. oil and gas installations in the Gulf of Mexico.

SALT HARVEST HALTED

Irene was heading west-northwest over the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas.

At 5 p.m. (2100 GMT), it had top winds of 90 miles per hour and was centered 110 miles east of Great Inagua Island in the southern Bahamas. Forecasters warned that a storm surge up to 13-feet high could wash over parts of the Bahamas.

Cruise line Royal Caribbean rearranged itineraries for six ships, skipping two scheduled stops at its Coco Cay island in the Bahamas so staff could prepare and evacuate.

Carnival Cruise Lines changed ports of call or shifted the arrival or departure times at ports for seven of its ships, a spokesman said.

Morton Salt shut down its operations on Great Inagua because rain melts the salt cake in its crystallizers, leaving it unable to continue the salt harvest. The company temporarily laid off 100 workers this month after getting more than double the average rainfall in July.

"We are hoping and praying we don't get any more precipitation from this hurricane," said Glen Bannister, Morton Salt's managing director.

In North Carolina, where Irene was forecast to come ashore on Saturday, Governor Bev Perdue urged residents to make sure they had three days worth of food, water and supplies.

"You may lose water or electrical power during the storm, and grocery stores and other businesses may be closed. Also make sure you know the evacuation routes," Perdue said.

Evacuations were to begin on Wednesday for parts of North Carolina's Outer Banks, the stretch of barrier islands and beaches jutting into the Atlantic Ocean. Tourists were ordered to leave some areas.

At a hardware store in Charleston, South Carolina, Carlito Resnicki, 29, hauled sheets of plywood to his car to board up his home. "I have a wife. ... Mama Bear said go buy plywood, so I came."

Irene could still swing farther east away from the U.S. coast. But if it skirts North Carolina's Outer Banks without weakening and then plows northward through the heavily populated mid-Atlantic and New England coasts as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, "It could become one of the ten most damaging hurricanes in history," hurricane expert Jeff Masters of private forecaster Weather Underground wrote in his blog.

Obama was briefed about Irene while on vacation at the Massachusetts island of Martha's Vineyard. He signed an emergency declaration on Monday for Puerto Rico after the storm pummeled the U.S. territory with heavy rains and winds. Puerto Rican authorities reported power outages and some flooding, but there were no reports of deaths or injuries.

http://news.yahoo.com/irene-strength...031002614.html

[Jolie Rouge]

Irene becomes Cat 3 hurricane on way to East Coast
AP – 18 mins ago

MIAMI (AP) — Hurricane Irene has strengthened to a major Category 3 storm as it heads toward the East Coast.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says Irene's maximum sustained winds have increased Wednesday to near 115 mph (185 kph) with additional strengthening forecast during the next day or so.

Meanwhile, evacuations have begun on a tiny barrier island off North Carolina early Wednesday in a test of whether people in the crosshairs of the first serious hurricane along the East Coast in years will heed orders to get out of the way.

Irene is centered about 335 miles (540 kilometers) southeast of Nassau in the Bahamas and is moving west-northwest near 9 mph (15 kph).

http://news.yahoo.com/irene-becomes-...120542878.html

[Jolie Rouge]

Hurricane Irene affirms 'magic' hurricane date
LiveScience.com – 5 hrs ag

Hurricane watchers circle Aug. 20 on their calendars every year. This is the "magic" date when hurricane season seems to kicks into high gear.

Like clockwork, Hurricane Irene — the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2011 — was born on Aug. 22, later strengthening to a Category 2 hurricane. Last year was another good example of an active storm season ramping up after Aug. 20. All of the 2010's major hurricanes (those of Category 3 or higher) formed after Aug. 20, starting with Danielle on Aug. 21.

Aug. 20 seems to be special because around this time, the air and ocean are in just the right state to foster and feed the monster storms. In climate-speak, this time of year is when vertical shear (a change in wind directions with height) in the atmosphere is low enough and sea surface temperatures are warm enough to create big storms.

http://news.yahoo.com/hurricane-iren...004631453.html

[Jolie Rouge]

To stay or go? Officials ponder Irene evacuations
By MARTHA WAGGONER - Associated Press | AP – 1 hr 6 mins ago

HATTERAS, N.C. (AP) — Hurricane Irene could hit anywhere from North Carolina to New York this weekend, leaving officials in the path of uncertainty to make a delicate decision. Should they tell tourists to leave during one of the last weeks of the multibillion-dollar summer season?

Most were in a wait-and-see mode, holding out to get every dime before the storm's path crystalizes. North Carolina's governor told reporters not to scare people away. "You will never endanger your tourists, but you also don't want to over inflate the sense of urgency about the storm. And so let's just hang on," North Carolina Gov. Beverly Perdue said Wednesday. At the same time she warned to "prepare for the worst."

In the Bahamas, tourists cut their vacations short and caught the last flights out before the airport was closed. Those who remained behind with locals prepared for a rough night of violent winds and a dangerous storm surge that threatened to punish the low-lying chain of islands. Irene has already hit Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, causing landslides and flooding homes. One woman was killed.

On the Outer Banks of North Carolina, some tourists heeded evacuation orders for a tiny barrier island as Irene strengthened to a Category 3 storm, with winds of 120 mph (193 kph). "We jam-packed as much fun as we could into the remainder of Tuesday," said Jessica Stanton Tice of Charleston, W.Va. She left Ocracoke Island on an early-morning ferry with her husband and toddler. "We're still going to give North Carolina our vacation business, but we're going to Asheville" in the mountains, she said.

Officials said Irene could cause flooding, power outages or worse as far north as Maine, even if the eye of the storm stays offshore. Hurricane-force winds were expected 50 miles from the center of the storm.

Predicting the path of such a huge storm can be tricky, but the National Hurricane Center uses computer models to come up with a "cone of uncertainty," a three-day forecast that has become remarkably accurate in recent years. Forecasters are still about a day away from the cone reaching the East Coast. A system currently over the Great Lakes will play a large role in determining if Irene is pushed farther to the east in the next three or four days.

The mood was calm in Virginia Beach, Va. Jimmy Capps, manager of the Breakers Resort Inn, said the 56-room hotel is about 80 percent booked for the weekend, despite a few cancellations. "It just appears they're not quite sure what the storm is going to do," Capps said. "The thing I'm amazed at now is that we haven't had more cancellations so far. Usually when they start mentioning the Outer Banks and Cape Lookout, which we are between, the phones light up."

In nearby Norfolk, the Navy ordered the Second Fleet to prepare to move out to sea early Thursday to keep the ships safe from the storm.

In New England, some beachgoers started second-guessing vacation plans. Steven Miller, who runs a charter sport fishing company off the coast of Rhode Island, hasn't received any cancellations, but no one has been calling to schedule trips in the next few days, either. "The hoopla beforehand could end the season," Miller said. "Everybody yanks their boats out, everybody leaves, and then they don't come back because it's so late in the season."

Sandbags were in demand in the Northeast to protect already saturated grounds from flooding. Country music star Kenny Chesney moved a Sunday concert in Foxborough, Mass., up to Friday to avoid the storm. High school football games were also rescheduled, and officials still hadn't decided whether to postpone Sunday's dedication of the Martin Luther King Jr. memorial on the National Mall. Hundreds of thousands were expected for that event. "Tourism depends so much on the weather, which is such an unpredictable element," said Samantha Rich, a tourism extension specialist at North Carolina State University. "An extremely hot season, an extremely cold season, a hurricane — it can make or break a season, especially for small businesses."

In North Carolina's Outer Banks, where about 300,000 visitors come every week in the summer, tourism is the lifeblood of the towns that dot the sandy barrier islands. Dare County beaches are the state's top vacation destination and it ordered tourists out beginning Thursday morning. Tourism represents about $834 million for businesses in the county, which has 8,000 rental homes and 3,000 hotel rooms, plus campground spots.

Business owners are wary of sacrificing a weekend in August if it's not completely necessary. "We had that occur last year, with Earl," said Veda Peters, co-owner of the Cypress House Inn in Kill Devil Hills. He was referring to the hurricane that passed off to the east, bringing little more than a night of rain and some wind gusts. "They evacuated the county, and then Labor Day weekend was gorgeous in the Outer Banks."

So far, the Cypress House Inn is fully booked for the coming weekend, but Peters already is getting calls about the weather. "If it's safe for people to be here, we want them to be here. If it's not safe, we'll say so and we'll get you in as soon as it is," said Lee Nettles, managing director or the Outer Banks Visitors Bureau. "We have a peak summer season and we're in the midst of that."

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North Carolina's governor told reporters not to scare people away.
"You will never endanger your tourists, but you also don't want to over inflate the sense of urgency about the storm. And so let's just hang on," North Carolina Gov. Beverly Perdue said Wednesday. At the same time she warned to "prepare for the worst."

Hey retard, a hurricane's something that you'd better get a sense of urgency about! Because by the time it's about to hit, it's too late to evacuate. Friggin Perdue's more concerned about losing tourist bucks than she is about their safety! But what can you expect from a democrook, more concerned about getting other people's money than about the people.

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Hope someone is thinking of the poor without cars or means of evacuation and money to stay in a hotel or stock up on supplies.Food and water should be free for the needy.

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Based on the latest model trends and the NWS offices starting to launch WX Balloons every 6 hours over most of the NE and Midwest....I'd say she is going to be a beast, one for the ages. NYC and LI watch out!!!

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Very nasty. However, anyone that doesn't pay attention to the warnings should NOT get any TAXPAYER MONEY. Just ask HOUSTON what they have put up with since Katrina. I went through the earthquake in San Francisco in 1990. NEVER took a taxpayer-funded dime but went to work at 4:30 A.M. to open up the plant, because the Bay Bridge was down for our production employees. PAID MY TAXES!!!!!!!!!!!

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Ray Nagin says : "Stay"

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Hurricane Ike was a Category 3 Hurricane that hit Houston and knocked out power for 3 weeks. The Woodlands (100 miles inland) and all of Houston got hammered. There were dozens of inbedded tornados that knocked down huge pine trees iun the Woodlands. Get away from this storm now. Take your wife and kids and get away now. Do not wait until 24 hours, the roads will be jammed. Leave Now!!

[Jolie Rouge]

Hurricane Irene tightens aim on East Coast
By MITCH WEISS - SETH BORENSTEIN - Associated Press | AP – 5 mins ago

BUXTON, N.C. (AP) — A monstrous Hurricane Irene tightened its aim on the Eastern Seaboard on Thursday, threatening 65 million people along a shore-hugging path from North Carolina to New England. One of the nation's top experts called it his "nightmare" scenario.

The Category 3 storm with winds of 115 mph — the threshold for a major hurricane — would be the strongest to strike the East Coast in seven years, and people were already getting out of the way. Tens of thousands fled North Carolina beach towns, farmers pulled up their crops, and the Navy ordered ships to sea so they could endure the punishing wind and waves in open water.

All eyes were on Irene's projected path, which showed it bringing misery to every city along the I-95 corridor, including Washington, New York and Boston. The former chief of the National Hurricane Center called it one of his three worst possible situations. "One of my greatest nightmares was having a major hurricane go up the whole Northeast Coast," Max Mayfield, the center's retired director, told The Associated Press. He said the damage will probably climb into billions of dollars: "This is going to have an impact on the United States economy."

The head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency said damages could exceed most previous storms because so many people live along the East Coast and property values are high. "We've got a lot more people that are potentially in the path of this storm," FEMA Director Craig Fugate said in an interview with The Associated Press. "This is one of the largest populations that will be impacted by one storm at one time."

The storm would "have a lot of impact well away from the coastline," he added. "A little bit of damage over big areas with large populations can add up fast."

Irene was massive, with tropical-force winds extending almost twice as far as normal, about the same size as Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in 2005. "It's not going to be a Katrina, but it's serious," said MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel. "People have to take it seriously."

The governors of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New York and New Jersey declared emergencies to free up resources, and authorities all the way to New England urged residents in low-lying areas to gather supplies and learn the way to a safe location. Irene was expected to come ashore Saturday in North Carolina with 115 mph winds and a storm surge of 5 to 10 feet. Warnings were out for the entire coast. It could dump a foot of rain, with as much as 15 inches falling in some places along the coast and around Chesapeake Bay.

With heavy rain and storm surge predicted for the nation's capital, organizers postponed Sunday's dedication of the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial on the National Mall. Already in South Florida near West Palm Beach, authorities blame the rough ocean churned up by the outer bands of Irene for injuring eight people when a wave knocked them off a jetty.

Scientists predict Irene will chug up the coast. Some forecasts showed it taking dead aim at New York City, with its eye passing over Brooklyn and Manhattan before weakening and trudging through New England.

If the storm strikes New York, it will probably be a Category 1 or 2, depending on its exact track, hurricane specialist John Cangialosi said.

Hurricanes are rare in the Northeast because the region's cooler seas tend to weaken storms as they approach, and they have to take a narrow track to strike New York without first hitting other parts of the coast and weakening there.

Still, strong storms have been known to unleash serious damage in an urban environment already surrounded by water.

A September 1821 hurricane raised tides by 13 feet in an hour and flooded all of Manhattan south of Canal Street — an area that now includes the nation's financial capital. An infamous 1938 storm dubbed the Long Island Express came ashore about 75 miles east of the city and then hit New England, killing 700 people and leaving 63,000 homeless.

On Thursday, Ocean City, Md., officials ordered thousands of residents and tourists to abandon the beach community. "This is not a time to get out the camera and sit on the beach and take pictures of the waves," said Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley.

Earlier in North Carolina, three coastal counties issued evacuation orders covering more than 200,000 people, including tourists and full-time residents. President Barack Obama declared an emergency for the state, allowing for federal help.

Dania Armstrong of New York sat outside a motel smoking a cigarette while she waited for her family to get ready. Armstrong, her daughter and grandchildren had already been ordered off the island of Ocracoke and planned to leave the town of Buxton soon. "I've been coming down here for 50 years," she said. "I know what's coming. It's time to leave. You don't want to be here when it hits."

John Robeson, an accountant from New Jersey, brought his wife and two children down for a week, but they were cutting the trip short after three days. "I'm disappointed," he said as he loaded his car. "You wait all year. Talk about it. Make plans for your vacation. And now this. It's a bad break."

Other year-round residents planned to ride it out, despite warnings from authorities that they will be on their own immediately after the storm. "If you leave, you can't get back for days because of the roads, and you don't know what's going on with your property," said Kathy MacKenzie, who works at Dillon's Corner, a general store in Buxton.

Ollie Jarvis, the store's owner, said he's staying and preparing for the worst. During Hurricane Emily in 1993, his store was flooded with 18 inches of water and sand from a storm surge. Like a spear, the water pushed a T-shirt rack filled with clothes through the ceiling. They still have the high-water mark on a wall near the cash register. "I can't leave. You have to worry about the stuff you have. You have to save what you can," he said.

Bobby Overbey of Virginia Beach, Va., pulled into a gas station in his Jeep with two surfboards hanging on the back. He planned to stay, despite the evacuation orders. Usually the waves top out at 2 to 3 feet. On Thursday, he was riding 4- and 5-foot waves. "You live for this," he said.

Farmers grimly accepted the fate of their crops. Strong winds and widespread flooding could mean billions of dollars in losses for corn, cotton, soybean, tobacco and timber growers. While most farmers have disaster insurance, policies often pay only about 70 percent of actual losses.

Wilson Daughtry owns Alligator River Growers near Engelhard, near Pamlico Sound. Though he is under a mandatory evacuation order, Daughtry and his workers planned to stay to salvage what corn and squash they can. He said he's lost count of how many times his crops have been wiped out by storms. "Hurricanes are just part of doing business down here," he said.

In Virginia, officials recalled Hurricane Isabel in 2003, which came ashore as a Category 1, killed more than 30 people and caused more than $1 billion in property damage. The low-lying Hampton Roads region is at high risk of flooding from storm surge and heavy rains. Widespread power outages are likely.

The Navy ordered many of its ships at Norfolk Naval Station out to sea to wait out the storm, including the aircraft carrier USS Dwight Eisenhower, as well as destroyers and submarines. Gearing up for approaching hurricanes is an almost annual occurrence in coastal North Carolina and Virginia, so planning is extensive and almost second-nature.

Building codes along the Outer Banks require structures to be reinforced to withstand sustained winds of up to 110 mph and gusts up to 130 mph. Houses close to the water must be elevated on pilings to keep them above storm surges, and required setbacks preserve sand dunes to provide additional protection.

[Jolie Rouge]

It could be a different story as the storm moves up the coast. In Washington, where residents were rattled by a rare earthquake Tuesday, officials warned people to be prepared for stormy conditions regardless of Irene's exact path and to stay away from the beaches in the region.

The Philadelphia area could get more than a half-foot of rain, accompanied by sustained winds up to 50 mph. Mayor Michael Nutter said it could be the worst storm in at least 50 years. August has already been one of the rainiest months in city history.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie asked all visitors to the shore to get out by midday Friday. He said Irene was poised to be a "serious, significant event," with flooding a threat across the entire state. A mandatory evacuation was ordered for Cape May County.

In a normal hurricane, tropical storm-force winds extend about 150 miles from the eye. Irene's winds extend nearly 250 miles. Another worry is that the ground is already saturated in the Northeast after a wet spring and summer. That means trees and power lines will be more vulnerable to winds, like during Hurricane Isabel, Mayfield said.

New York is especially susceptible with its large subway network and the waterways around the city, Mayfield said. "In many ways, a Category 2 or stronger storm hitting New York is a lot of people's nightmare," said Susan Cutter, director of the Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute at the University of South Carolina. High water in the harbor and rivers, along with a high tide at the end of the month because of the new moon, could cause serious flooding. New York's three airports are close to the water, putting them at risk, too, Cutter said. And if the storm shifts further to the west, placing New York City on the stronger right-hand quadrant of the storm, "that is what's going to push this wall of water into the bays and the Hudson River."

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