Thread: Who is Watching Ivan ??

Ivan Forces South Louisiana to Prepare

www.wafb.com/Global/story.asp?S=2297080

Governor Kathleen Blanco has declared a state of emergency, voluntary evacuations are underway in the New Orleans area and the State Office of Emergency Preparedness is activated. This comes as the entire northern Gulf coast braces for Hurricane Ivan, which is now in the Gulf of Mexico.

Ivan is now centered about 85 miles northwest of the western tip of Cuba. This puts it about 575 miles south-southeast of the northern Gulf coast. Movement is northwest at nine miles an hour, with a turn more to the north-northwest expected in the coming day or so. Top sustained winds are still at 160 miles an hour. Some slight weakening is expected in the coming 24 hours, but Ivan is expected to remain a major hurricane at landfall.

A hurricane watch is posted from Morgan City, Louisiana, eastward to St. Marks, Florida, which is south of Tallahassee. The middle of the official forecast track brings the center of the hurricane to about Pensacola late Wednesday night, but hurricane force winds stretch out 100 miles from center. Tropical storm-force winds are out up to 200 miles.

Forecasters are NOT looking for a significant change in Ivan's forward motion. One forecast model brings the center of the system to the Gulf coast about at New Orleans, while the others point to the areas between Pascagoula, Mississippi, and just east of Pensacola.

Evacuations

New Orleans Evacuations: Officials in New Orleans and suburban Jefferson Parish are urging residents to evacuate in the face of the threat of Hurricane Ivan. Mayor Ray Nagin says that even if the storm makes landfall on the central Gulf coast, the area could still feel hurricane-force winds. Jefferson Parish President Aaron Broussard urges residents not to take any comfort in forecasts charting an easterly movement for Ivan. Broussard says it's only a question of how hard the region will be hit - and not if it will be hit. Neither evacuation is mandatory.

Officials in St. Charles Parish ordered a mandatory evacuation this morning of that parish's 49-thousand residents. A mandatory evacuation also is in effect for low-lying areas of Plaquemines Parish.

Entergy Turns Back: Louisiana utility workers who spent the past few weeks restoring power in Florida in the wake of Hurricane Charley and Frances are heading home to contend with the threat of Hurricane Ivan. About 175 workers for Entergy Corporation's Louisiana utilities left Orlando, Florida, Monday. The workers represent about one-third of the company's normal outdoor work force in the state. Cleco Corporation in Pineville recalled about 50 workers from Ocala, Florida.

Entergy spokesman Chanel Lagarde says Entergy's workers should be home tonight, giving them time to rest before they have to respond to Ivan, which is expected to make landfall somewhere along the central Gulf Coast early Thursday. Cleco also expects workers to be back in the state by the end of today.

Tree-trimming crews from Entergy are scheduled to hit the streets in the New Orleans area to trim dead branches and other obstructors away from critical power lines. Both utilities are prepared to handle the aftermath of Ivan if the storm should hit Louisiana.

Entergy New Orleans supplies power to 191-thousand customers in Orleans Parish, and Entergy Louisiana supplice electrictiy to a million customers in the suburbs, Baton Rouge and other parts of the state. Cleco supplies electricity to 270-thousand customers in a portion of New Orleans' north shore and much of central Louisiana.

Classes Canceled: Southeastern Louisiana University canceled classes for Tuesday. Only faculty and staff were to report to SLU.


AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...IVAN REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 932 MB...27.52 INCHES.

More Bad News ....

Tropical Storm Jeanne in Atlantic

UNDATED (AP) - There's a new tropical storm in the Atlantic, bearing down on the Leewards as it moves coser to the Bahamas. Tropical Storm Jeanne developed from a depression that appeared overnight. It's centered about 135 miles southeast of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Movement is west-northwest at about 12 miles an hour, though some northwest movement is possible in the coming day or so.

There's a tropical storm warning posted for the U.S. and British Virgins, Puerto Rico, St. Kitts and Nevis. Top sustained winds are at about 40 miles an hour, with some strengthening expected. For now, forecast maps show the center of the tropical storm staying east of the Bahamas. But the larger forecast cone covers much of Hispaniola and part of Cuba by the end of the week.

and how many more weeks of hateful political commercials ...


Will Ivan Postpone Election?

A major election is planned for Saturday and the Secretary of State's Office is watching the storm closely to figure out what to do if Louisiana takes a direct hit from Hurricane Ivan. There are a lot of options. The first is that precincts could be physically moved to a location that was spared storm damage. That would allow all voters in all parishes the opportunity to vote.

If the damage is just too great for that, the second option is that some parish elections could be postponed. That could change the ballot in other parishes if statewide races had to be postponed. For example, the statewide amendment to decide whether to ban gay marriage could be moved to the November ballot. The same thing could happen with the PSC races.

For now, Secretary of State Fox McKeithen is keeping a close eye on the storm. He'll have more information as the track becomes more clear and the damage is tallied.

supplies selling out quick here in south alabama...we are getting ready for power outages and tornadoes and flooding...I am praying hard for everyone in the path of this hurricane...its a monster...

Ivan at National Weather Tropical Prediction Center
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap.../140853.shtml?

good images; www.srh.weather.gov/hgx/tropical.htm

Hurrican Hunters out of Keesler: www.hurricanehunters.com (site may be to busy to get to) [no real data, just cool for the kids]

22 Percent Chance Ivan Will Slam New Orleans

Scores of people from New Orleans to northwest Fla. were told to leave their homes on Tuesday as deadly Hurricane Ivan roared into the Gulf of Mexico after grazing Cuba.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WEATHER/09/1...van/index.html

NEW ORLEANS, Louisiana (CNN) -- Coastal residents along the Gulf of Mexico were beginning to evacuate Tuesday, trying to evade Hurricane Ivan, a dangerous Category 4 storm projected to hit from the Florida Panhandle to the Texas-Louisiana border sometime early Thursday.

In New Orleans, Mayor Ray Nagin declared a state of emergency and strongly recommended residents evacuate immediately. Public and private schools in many of Louisiana's coastal parishes already have closed and some businesses and public offices were closing their doors. Nagin said that as of Tuesday morning there was a 22 percent chance that New Orleans would take a direct hit.

"The city basically sits like a bowl and most of the city is under sea level ... so if we get a storm like Ivan to hit us directly" there could be 12 to 18 feet of water in the city, Nagin said. If people can't get out of New Orleans, the mayor said, they should do a "vertical evacuation."

"Basically, go to hotels and high-rise buildings in the city," Nagin explained.

Mandatory evacuations have been issued for St. Charles and Plaquemines parishes. Officials strongly urged residents of Jefferson Parish to begin leaving.

Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Babineaux Blanco declared a state of emergency Monday, and in a news conference Tuesday urged coastal residents in designated areas to leave immediately.

Hurricane Ivan is rated a Category 4, with sustained winds of 140 mph and stronger gusts. Ivan weakened from its overnight rating of Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, when it had winds higher than 156 mph.

Also on Tuesday, President Bush asked for an additional $3.1 billion in emergency funds to help Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina and any other areas affected by Hurricanes Charley and Frances earlier this month.

Panama City warned

Residents of Panama City Beach, Florida, the spring break mecca, also are under an evacuation order.

"You must understand in all humility that you are at the mercy of the weather," said Panama City Beach Mayor Lee Sullivan. Sullivan recalled that Hurricane Opal in 1995 brought the region "to our knees."

He urged people to heed the warnings and leave before the three bridges linking the island to the mainland are shut down, which happens when winds reach 55 mph.

Alabama Gov. Bob Riley Tuesday ordered residents in Gulf Shores, Orange Beach and Fort Morgan to evacuate, and may include others later in the day.

More evacuations

In Mississippi, where Gov. Haley Barbour also declared a state of emergency Monday, residents living south of Interstate 10, were under a mandatory evacuation order.

In Florida, mandatory evacuations went into effect Tuesday for most of the Gulf Coast counties, including Santa Rosa, Walton, Escambia and Okaloosa. Schools in 12 counties have been closed. Other evacuation orders only affect residents in low-lying areas or those living in mobile homes.

Police in Destin, Florida, were making sure residents got out -- including employees of the Back Porch Restaurant, where staffers were working feverishly to secure the building from a storm surge predicted to hit as high as 13 feet. "The police are going to escort us out in the next half hour," said restaurant spokesman Coby Gent.

Storm weakens slightly

As of 2 p.m., Ivan was about 405 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving northwest near 9 mph and packing winds up to 140 mph with stronger gusts. The storm is expected to weaken slightly in the next 24 hours as it begins to take a more northerly course. The National Hurricane Center is projecting Ivan will remain a Category 4, or will have dropped to a Category 3 by the time it makes landfall.

No matter where the landfall occurs, forecasters said, a wide swath of the Gulf of Mexico coast will be impacted because of the storm's massive size. Hurricane force winds extend outward 100 miles and tropical storm force winds stretch 260 miles.

That means that tropical storm force winds will begin hitting the Gulf Coast Wednesday, making it difficult for residents to finish boarding up their homes and move things inside.

On Monday, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush told residents of the hurricane-weary state to take the necessary precautions, prepare for the impact and listen to authorities as evacuation orders go into effect. "This is not the time to be defiant or to kind of let people know that you're a macho man. There are other ways to do that in life," Bush said. "Trust me, it is a powerful, powerful force of nature that you shouldn't be messing with."


Ivan hammers Cuba

Ivan, which had been a Category 5 storm, ravaged Cuba before heading for the Gulf Coast. Since 1900, only three Category 5 hurricanes have hit the United States, most recently Hurricane Andrew, which pounded the south Florida coast in 1992, killing 23 people and causing about $26 billion in damages.

The storm has already left more than 60 dead in its wake as it barreled across Jamaica, Grenada and other islands. Grenada was the hardest hit, reporting 37 people killed by the storm.

With Ivan heading toward the Gulf of Mexico, oil companies evacuated off-shore oil rigs, stopping production of nearly 100,000 barrels of oil per day.

The military also began making preparations, moving Navy and Air Force equipment away from the storm's path, including 300 Navy aircraft moved from Naval Air Station Pensacola and Whiting Field in the Florida Panhandle.

On Grand Cayman, which the storm's eye missed by about 30 miles Sunday. The hurricane center said ham radio operators were reporting flooding so bad that people had to stand on their roofs.

My 2 grandkidlettes in Ft. Walton, FL Okaloosa County evacuated this afternoon. Army Mom nearby evacuated yesterday. And Jolie, be safe hon. Looks like Grand Isle with get smacked too. And everyone in Ivan's path, be safe.....

My DS, DIL and GD are in Biloxi at Keesler AFB. They are going to the shelter tomorrow and the base will be locked down at 6 PM, I think she said. Looks like this will be pretty bad for so many people, just heard winds are back to 140 mph. Everyone stay safe.

Direct Hit by Ivan Could Sink New Orleans
By BRETT MARTEL, Associated Press Writer

NEW ORLEANS - The worst-case scenario for New Orleans — a direct strike by a full-strength Hurricane Ivan — could submerge much of this historic city treetop-deep in a stew of sewage, industrial chemicals and fire ants, and the inundation could last for weeks, experts say.

If the storm were strong enough, Ivan could drive water over the tops of the levees that protect the city from the Mississippi River and vast Lake Pontchartrain. And with the city sitting in a saucer-shaped depression that dips as much as 9 feet below sea level, there would be nowhere for all that water to drain.


Even in the best of times, New Orleans depends on a network of canals and huge pumps to keep water from accumulating inside the basin.


"Those folks who remain, should the city flood, would be exposed to all kinds of nightmares from buildings falling apart to floating in the water having nowhere to go," Ivor van Heerden, director of Louisiana State University's Hurricane Public Health Center, said Tuesday.


LSU's hurricane experts have spent years developing computer models and taking surveys to predict what might happen.


The surveys predict that about 300,000 of the 1.6 million people living in the metropolitan area would risk staying.


The computer models show a hurricane with a wind speed of around 120 mph or more — hitting just west of New Orleans so its counterclockwise rotation could hurl the strongest surf and wind directly into the city — would push a storm surge from the Gulf of Mexico and Lake Pontchartrain over the city's levees. Ivan had sustained wind of 140 mph Tuesday.


New Orleans would be under about 20 feet of water, higher than the roofs of many of the city's homes.


Besides collecting standard household and business garbage and chemicals, the flood would flow through chemical plants in the area, "so there's the potential of pretty severe contamination," van Heerden said.


Severe flooding in area bayous also forces out wildlife, including poisonous snakes and stinging fire ants, which sometimes gather in floating balls carried by the current.


A rescue of people who stayed behind would be among the world's biggest since 1940, when Allied forces and civilian volunteers during World War II rescued mostly British soldiers from Dunkirk, France, and carried them across the English Channel, van Heerden predicted.


Much of the city would be under water for weeks. And even after the river and Lake Pontchartrain receded, the levees could trap water above sea level, meaning the Army Corps of Engineers would have to cut the levees to let the water out.


"The real big problem is the water from sea level on down because it will have to be pumped and restoring the pumps and getting them back into action could take a considerable amount of time," said John Hall, the Corps' spokesman in New Orleans.


Hall spoke from his home — 6 feet below sea level — as he prepared to flee the city himself. The Corps' local staff was being relocated 166 miles north to Vicksburg, Miss.


New Orleans was on the far western edge of the Gulf Coast region threatened by Ivan, and forecasters said Tuesday that the hurricane appeared to moving toward a track farther east, along the Mississippi coast.


If the eye came ashore east of the city, van Heerden said, New Orleans would be on the low side of the storm surge and would not likely have catastrophic flooding.


The worst storm in recent decades to hit New Orleans was Hurricane Betsy in 1965, which submerged parts of the city in water 7-feet deep and was blamed for 74 deaths in Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida. That storm was a Category 3, weaker than Ivan is expected to be.

Even if New Orleans escapes this time, van Heerden said, it will remain vulnerable until the federal and state governments act to restore the coastal wetlands that should act as a buffer against storms coming in from the Gulf.

Louisiana has lost about a half million acres of coast to erosion since 1930 because the Mississippi River is so corralled by levees that it can dump sediment only at its mouth, and that allows waves from the Gulf to chop away at the rest of the coastline.

"My fear is, if this storm passes (without a major disaster), everybody forgets about it until next year, when it could be even worse because we'll have even less wetlands," van Heerden said.


http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...le_new_orleans

Originally Posted by Tina

JMO.. and I'll probably get bashed for this one... but it sure seems to me like God's trying to get someone's attention..... I wish they'd listen......

I may get bashed also but I agree and lots of other folks down this way agree too
Stay safe {{{{everyone}}}}My prayers are for this monster to dissolve and hit noone

Evacuees Flee New Orleans Ahead of Ivan
By DOUG SIMPSON

NEW ORLEANS (AP) - More than 1.2 million people in metropolitan New Orleans were warned to get out Tuesday as 140-mph Hurricane Ivan churned toward the Gulf Coast, threatening to submerge this below-sea-level city in what could be the most disastrous storm to hit in nearly 40 years.

Residents streamed inland in bumper-to-bumper traffic in an agonizingly slow exodus amid dire warnings that Ivan could overwhelm New Orleans with up to 20 feet of filthy, chemical-polluted water. About three-quarters of a million more people along the coast in Florida, Mississippi and Alabama also were told to evacuate.

Forecasters said Ivan, blamed for at least 68 deaths in the Caribbean, could reach 160 mph and strengthen to Category 5, the highest level, by the time it blows ashore as early as Thursday somewhere along the Gulf Coast.

``Hopefully the house will still be here when we get back,'' said Tara Chandra, a doctor at Tulane University in New Orleans who packed up his car, moved plants indoors and tried to book a Houston hotel room. Chandra said he wanted to ride out the storm, but his wife wanted to evacuate: ``All the news reports are kind of freaking her out.''


With hurricane-force wind extending 105 miles from its center - and forecast to continue as much as 150 miles inland - Ivan could cause significant damage no matter where it strikes. Officials ordered or strongly urged an estimated 1.9 million people in four states to flee to higher ground.


``I beg people on the coast: Do not ride this storm out,'' Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour said, urging people in other parts of the state to open their homes to relatives, friends and co-workers.


At 11 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Ivan was centered about 295 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and moving north-northwest at 12 mph. Latitude: 25.1 north; Longitude: 87.2 west; Top sustained winds: Near 140 mph


The National Hurricane Center in Miami posted a hurricane warning for about a 300-mile swath from Apalachicola in the Florida Panhandle to New Orleans and Grand Isle in Louisiana. Forecasters said Ivan could bring a coastal storm surge of 10 to 16 feet, topped by large, battering waves. ``If we get the kind of tidal surge they are saying, the fishing boats are all going to be in the trees,'' said Jamee Lowry, owner of a bar and restaurant in Perdido Key, Fla., near the Alabama border.


New Orleans, the nation's largest city below sea level, is particularly vulnerable to flooding, and Mayor Ray Nagin urged residents to get out while they can. The city's Louis Armstrong Airport was ordered closed Tuesday night.


Up to 10 feet below sea level in spots, New Orleans is a bowl-shaped depression that sits between the half-mile-wide Mississippi River and Rhode Island-size Lake Pontchartrain. It relies on levees, canals and huge pumps to keep dry.


The city has not taken a major direct hit from a hurricane since Betsy in 1965, when an 8- to 10-foot storm surge submerged parts of the city in seven feet of water. Betsy, a Category 3 storm, was blamed for 74 deaths in Louisiana, Mississippi and Florida.


Experts said Ivan could be worse.


Nagin said he would ``aggressively recommend'' people evacuate, but that it would be difficult to order them to, because at least 100,000 in the city rely on public transportation and have no way to leave. ``They say evacuate, but they don't say how I'm supposed to do that,'' said Latonya Hill, 57, who lives on a disability check and money she picks up cleaning houses or baby sitting. ``If I can't walk it or get there on the bus, I don't go. I don't got a car. My daughter don't either.''


The mayor also said many people were in town for conventions, and there was nowhere for many of them to go except their hotels. The National Safety Council, which had about 16,000 delegates in town for its national convention, ended its meeting a day early Tuesday, and delegates faced the problem of getting transportation out of the city.


Despite the potential need for emergency housing, no shelters had been opened in the city as of Tuesday night. Nagin said the city was working on setting up a shelter of ``last resort'' and added that the Superdome might be used, but a spokesman for the stadium said earlier Tuesday that it was not equipped as a shelter.


By midday Tuesday, traffic on Interstate 10, the major hurricane route out of New Orleans, was at a near standstill, and state police turned the interstate west of the city into a one-way route out. U.S. Highway 61 to Baton Rouge also was jammed.


In the French Quarter, businesses put up plywood and closed their shutters. A few people were still hanging out at Cafe du Monde, a favorite spot for French roast coffee and beignets, and a man playing a trombone outside had a box full of tips. ``They said get out, but I can't change my flight, so I figure I might as well enjoy myself,'' said George Senton, of Newark, N.J., who listened to the music. ``At least I'll have had some good coffee and some good music before it gets me.''


Tourist Dee Barkhart, a court reporter from Baltimore, drank hurricane punches at Pat O'Brien's bar before it closed at nightfall. ``I looked into earlier flights, but they were hundreds of dollars more and I wasn't sure I could switch flights,'' she said. ``I figure I'm happier sitting here drinking hurricanes than sitting at the airport worrying about them.''





Elsewhere along the Gulf Coast, thousands of residents, gamblers and tourists crowded northbound roads. Motels were booked as far north as Jackson, Miss., and Montgomery, Ala.


Mississippi regulators ordered a dozen casinos along the state's 75-mile-long coast to close at noon Tuesday. Many gamblers pumped coins into the slot machines right up to closing. ``I don't worry about what's going to happen tomorrow. We can't control it anyway,'' said Ed Bak of Fairfield, Ohio, who dropped quarters into a machine at the President Casino.


In Alabama, Gov. Bob Riley ordered the evacuation of coastal resorts. ``This is a serious storm that requires serious action to get people out of harm's way,'' he said.


In Gulf Shores, Ala., the heart of the ``Redneck Riviera,'' the sugary white beaches and offbeat tourist spots were largely deserted. Workers at Souvenir City, where tourists enter by walking through the mouth of a huge shark, packed up glass figurines for storage in a warehouse. ``I don't know if it will be any safer where they're taking it. Only the good Lord knows what's going to happen,'' said Pamela Davis, an employee.


Along Florida's Panhandle, the sounds of saws and drills filled the air as people put up boards to protect their homes and businesses. ``We are just hoping to still be here,'' said Matt Claxton, an assistant manager of a Perdido Key seafood restaurant as workers brought the patio furniture inside.


Associated Press Writers Bill Kaczor in Perdido Key, Fla.; Allen G. Breed and David Royse in Panama City Beach, Fla.; Shelia Hardwell Byrd in Biloxi, Miss.; Bob Johnson in Montgomery, Ala.; and Mary Foster in New Orleans contributed to this report.


On the Net:


National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov



09/14/04 23:03


http://cnn.netscape.cnn.com/ns/news/...0040914ALJC102