Thread: This could very well be "Chantal"...

GFS Model run. The time frame for this picture is 6AM July 3rd.
GFS has started to become more consistent now.And the targeted area of landfall has also started to become more consistent as well.A 999mb storm isn't all that strong maybe on the order of Strong Tropical Storm status.But just strong enough to disrupt things across South Louisiana.

This could very well be "Chantal".

If you have public activities planned or are planning them for the 4th of July, might be a good idea to stay tuned and be ready to change your Holiday plans accordingly.

But... Models and Mother Nature are always at odd's so this may not pan out at all.But it is the season and when models start to become consistent on something paying attention early means you don't get caught off guard.

We'll continue to monitor and see how this plays out.
-Joe D.

The tropical wave in the central Atlantic has organized into Tropical Storm Chantal. Chantal will move into the Caribbean and then begin to curve to the right moving into the Bahamas. At this time it appears we should not be impacted by Chantal, but as always we will update you on any changes.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...daynl#contents

11:00 PM EDT Sun Jul 7
Location: 9.8°N 47.2°W
Moving: W at 26 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

OK, here is our latest thinking with the tropics over the next week. Not a forecast, always subject to change. This is how it looks right now. Gonna be very active.




The 11pm new advisory is out. ‎#Chantal is expected to remain a Tropical Storm through the Bahamas now. The NHC track has her crossing directly over Hispaniola, which should weaken her. Most models show an increase in intensity after this land interaction it appears (pictured here). And most models predict a curve back to the West after the Bahamas as High pressure in the Atlantic blocks movement there (pictured here). New models will be coming in through the night with fresh data from reconnaissance... and recon is going out again in the AM. There is a strong wave following Chantal that may be our next system to track soon. See everything at http://www.spaghettimodels.com. Talk ‎#tropics and more ‎#weather at www.hurricanechat.com.




Right after Chantal the GFS is showing an insane pattern for July. 3 systems at once, all from Africa. We've expected activity for mid-July. Going to be an active period with possible multiple US landfalls due to strong ridging in the Atlantic pushing storms west versus north. We've been talking about this possible pattern.

Tropical Storm Chantal: 11 AM ET, 45 mph winds, 1011 mb, moving W at 29 mph. The hurricane hunters found just enough of a circulation. Chantal lives to see another advisory.

Chantal is forecasted by the hurricane center to become a depression or an open wave within 24 hours. See the latest track below. The hurricane center is thinking that moderate wind shear will cause her to lose any organization she has left. Beware though, Chantal has been a fighter it could always change this forecast by doing what it wants to do.