2016 Hurricane Season

[Jolie Rouge]

Does a Weakening El Niño Mean a More Dangerous 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season?
1 day 19 hours ago
By Jon Erdman

What effect will a disappearing El Niño have on the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season?

Wait, you may rightly ask. Isn't the current El Niño one of the strongest on record?

Indeed it is. But, as expected, this one appears to have reached its peak in late 2015, and is expected to weaken substantially or disappear altogether by the start of the hurricane season.


Suite of model forecasts from mid-December 2015 through October 2016 for the Niño 3.4 region sea-surface temperature anomaly. El Niño conditions are indicated by anomalies less than 0.5 degrees Celsius. (IRI/Earth Institute/Columbia University/NOAA)


El Niño likely played a significant suppressing role in the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season.

Dr. Phil Klotzbach, tropical scientist at Colorado State University, found June through October Caribbean wind shear was the highest on record dating to 1979. Klotzbach also said the magnitude of dry air over the Caribbean Sea in the peak season month of August and September also set a record.

These two factors contributed to the demise of five named storms tracking near the Caribbean Sea from mid-August through September: Hurricane Danny, Tropical Storm Erika, Hurricane Fred, Tropical Storm Grace and Tropical Storm Ida.

Despite that, Hurricane Joaquin was the first Category 4 or stronger hurricane to make an October strike on the Bahamas since 1866.

(MORE: 11 Things We Remember About the 2015 Hurricane Season)

With only 11 named storms in the 2015 Atlantic season, it marked the first time in 21 years to have two consecutive below-average named storm seasons, according to Klotzbach.

So, let's take a look at past hurricane seasons following strong El Niños to see if we can gain any insight.

Past Post-Strong El Niño Atlantic Seasons

Using the El Niño intensity classification scheme from consultant meteorologist Jan Null, we examined five previous hurricane seasons following strong El Niños. The statistics from each of those seasons is below. http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

As you can see, there's quite a spread, ranging from a record low four named storms in 1983 to 14 such storms in 1998.

The 1998 season featured seven U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones, three of which - Bonnie, Earl, and Georges - were hurricanes at landfall.

Despite only four named storms in 1983, two of those made U.S. landfall, including Category 3 Hurricane Alicia in southeast Texas.

This again illustrates the poor correlation between the number of named storms or hurricanes and landfalls.

In all, there have been a total of six U.S. hurricane landfalls in the five post-strong El Niño seasons dating to 1958, for an average of roughly one a season. Two of those five seasons were without a U.S. hurricane landfall, however.



What It Means in 2016

Klotzbach found that the chance of a U.S. hurricane impact rises dramatically in a La Niña or neutral (neither El Niño or La Niña) season compared to an El Niño season.

The U.S. averages between 1 to 2 hurricane landfalls each season, according to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division statistics.

(MORE: Hurricane Central)

As you may be aware, Florida has had an extraordinary run of over 10 years since its last hurricane impact (Hurricane Wilma in 2005), the longest hurricane-free streak for the Sunshine State in records dating to 1851.

Furthermore, Wilma was the last Category 3 or stronger hurricane to landfall anywhere along the U.S. mainland, also the longest such streak dating to the mid-19th century.

We're past due.

Without El Niño contributing to stronger wind shear and dry air in the Caribbean Sea, it at least loads the dice toward an increased chance of tropical cyclones surviving into the Caribbean Sea, or forming there in 2016, particularly later in the season as El Niño disappears farther in the rear-view mirror.

If El Niño was the only factor, that is.

The previous two Atlantic hurricane seasons featured either few named storms (2014; 8) or a greater number of storms, but few of which survived long or became hurricanes (2013).

Each featured prohibitive dry air and/or wind shear during a significant part of the season, but El Niño was nowhere to be found.

To sum it up, the odds may shift a bit toward a more active Atlantic hurricane season in 2016, but El Niño's absence doesn't guarantee that outcome.

Nor does it mean it poses any greater threat to the U.S. compared to any other year.

All it takes is one intense, landfalling hurricane to render much of this El Niño talk moot. Prepare for every hurricane season, regardless of El Niño or its pre-season demise.

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurric...prclt-75aW2N9x

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[Jolie Rouge]

Alex : Hurricane Season 2016 - Early Start ?

As expected... Say Hello to Tropical Storm Bonnie. This makes 2 named storms to develop before the Official start of Hurricane Season.



NHC has upgraded Tropical Depression Two to Tropical Storm Bonnie, the second named Atlantic basin storm of 2016. The center of Bonnie was located by satellite and NOAA Doppler radars about 120 miles (190 km) southeast of Beaufort, S. Car., moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed, is expected through this evening and on Sunday. A Tropical Storm Warning continues along the South Carolina coast from the Savannah River to Little River Inlet.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight as Bonnie moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. Gradual weakening is forecast on Sunday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later tonight or early Sunday. Bonnie is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with maximum totals of 5 inches from eastern South Carolina through southeastern North Carolina. Storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground level is possible within the tropical storm warning area during the next high tide on Sunday morning.
Bonnie is also expected to produce life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United
States coast through the weekend. An isolated tornado or two will be possible late tonight and early Sunday over the immediate coastal region from central South Carolina through southern North Carolina.

Get the latest on this tropical cyclone by visiting the NHC website at http://www.hurricanes.gov

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center's photo.