Dorian in the Atlantic

[Jolie Rouge]

Tropical Storm Dorian becomes the 4th Atlantic named storm of the season.

Tropical depression 4 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Dorian, the season's 4th storm, in the far eastern Atlantic. Tropical Storm Dorian: 11 AM ET, 50 mph winds, 1002 mb, moving WNW at 21 mph.

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Latest forecast thinking: http://wxch.nl/12Lvj0H

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[Jolie Rouge]

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[Jolie Rouge]

Tropical Storm Dorian : 11 PM ET, 50 mph winds, 1002 mb, moving WNW at 20 mph.
NHC notes warmer ocean temps now expected ahead of Dorian, forecast calls for ~65 mph winds 5 days out.

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[Jolie Rouge]

Here is our latest thinking beyond 5 days for Dorian. There is much uncertainty in the long range as there are many factors at play. There will be a chance for the storm to curve out to sea or possibly affect a portion of the US east coast. It will be all about timing. We do think that in the 5-7 day range, the center will be located somewhere in the orange cone we have drawn in beyond the official NHC track. There is still a lot of time to watch Dorian as it is still way out in the Atlantic. It has become more apparent today that Dorian will likely survive the dry air and wind shear along its path due to the robust circulation it has developed. We will have more for you tomorrow. It could even make a run for hurricane status by early next week. Follow in-depth at http://www.hurrtracker.com

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[Jolie Rouge]

Tropical Storm Dorian strengthened slightly over the open Atlantic Ocean Thursday morning.
At 4 a.m. it was located @ 15.6N, 34.5W.
Maximum sustained winds were 60 mph and it was moving WNW @ 17 mph.

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[Jolie Rouge]

This visible imagery shows me a couple of things.. the outflow is expanding in all directions with this storm. This is a sign that the anti-cyclone which helps ventilate a tropical system is still sufficient. Also noticed the strong flow from South to North out ahead of this system. This is the southwesterly flow caused by the upper-level trough just north of the Greater Antilles. This flow bends slightly to the east as it approaches the top part of ex-Dorian. This means that the anticyclone is holding strong and could diminish the affect of shear. Also as more air escapes from the top of the column more air will have to rise from the surface to compensate. This will lower surface pressures over time and also help to transport moisture, latent heat, and instability to the mid-levels of the atmosphere. If enough can be transported the warmer air will cause the air column to expand which will rise heights in the upper-levels and negate the upper-level trough completely. This system can then be able to generate convection on its own during the daytime and once again develop into a cyclone. I am certainly not writing this storm off yet from what I see.

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Brand new evening model plots for the remnants of Dorian. A shift westward. Gulf residents need to watch this system too. Follow the models and the storm with the app at www.hurrtracker.com

[Jolie Rouge]

The NHC is now giving ex Dorian a 50/50 chance of reforming & we are giving a 70% chance. Only a slight increase in organization will bring Dorian back. The next Hurricane Hunter mission departs in 3 hours. Follow with the Hurricane Tracker App at www.hurrtracker.com

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[Jolie Rouge]

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Here is what we are thinking at this time. This is a very fluid situation and will change. This is guidance and NOT gospel. We are giving this system a 70% chance of development. It is high, but not certain. If it develops, this is about what we expect in terms on track and intensity. Medium confidence in the track and low confidence on the intensity.

Based on everything we have seen, there is a good chance we will have TS Dorian again by tomorrow evening (we have done a lot pouring over data) with 40-50 mph winds. The system will be steered generally wnw and guidance is suggesting very favorable upper level conditions after Tuesday. Only marginal until then. We think this will be an intensifying system as it heads through the Bahamas. By WED-THUR the system should pass anywhere from N Cuba to South FL possibly as a CAT 1 hurricane. From there, a track into the Gulf is certainly possible.

You need to be on close watch or on guard if you live in the shaded regions. The "center" could track anywhere within the red cone whether this is a wave, TS or hurricane. Don't run out and fill up the car or evacuate just yet, just SHARE this post with your friends and grab the Hurricane Tracker app here www.hurrtracker.com to keep tabs with the latest information on this developing situation. We will have more information from the Hurricane Hunters tonight for you. ~ The Hurricane Tracker App Team.

[Jolie Rouge]

We have had to make a drastic change in our thinking (good news) from our previous forecasts. A few things have become apparent during the day today that leads us to believe "Dorian" will not end up re-developing. I will explain why.

First, the upper level trough just to the west of Dorian is still pretty strong. It appeared yesterday that the trough would lift out and weaken, leaving an area for the storm to intensify. This trough and associated shear is expected to hang around for most of the week. Also, the mid-level center is looking very weak this evening. The only hope for this storm was for the mid-level center to sustain convection long enough so that a low level center could form. It is becoming apparent this is not likely going to happen. Also, pressures have not come down today in the region and the surface trough is displaced to the west of the mid-level center.

Having said the above, there is still a low chance it could form into a tropical storm at some point this week. It will bring heavy, tropical rains and gusty winds along its path this week. The tropics are a very fluid environment and ever-changing. We will be here to let you know if it appears the storm is on the verge of developing. This has been one of the most difficult storms to follow in recent memory. No matter how much experience you have, you always try to make your best educated "guess" using the available data. Weather is not an exact science. www.hurrtracker.com

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[Jolie Rouge]

Good morning! Nothing brewing in the ‪#‎Tropics‬ for now I am monitoring a vigorous wave that has come of the African coast. As of right now conditions are not favorable, a thick Saharan dust layer should stop it from developing. The energy left over from the pesky headache of a storm called Dorian should head towards the ‪#‎Gulf‬ over the next couple days but looks like no chance for development either. Everyone enjoy today... HAPPY HUMP DAY!!

[Jolie Rouge]

Dorian, is that you? We are watching the partial remains of Dorian. We are giving this system a 20% chc of development within the next 2 days. NHC 0%. Will likely not develop, but something to watch. It will be picked up and steered away from land by an approaching trough of low pressure.

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[Jolie Rouge]

Named after a Soap Opera Character .... "Dorian" just refuses to be counted "down & out"
... everytime they claim she is dead and gone ... she returns ...


Well, it appears that ex-Dorian is trying to make a comeback. Sometimes the tropics will surprise us. Satellite data is reporting 40 mph winds. There is no wind shear or dry air and the NHC is giving this system a 20% chance of development. An upper level trough coming down from the eastern US should help to pick up this system and lift it north and northeast out to sea. If you live in FL or the SE us just keep an eye on this as it still has a ways to if it wants to develop

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[Jolie Rouge]

Tired talking about this system BUT the ‪#‎NHC‬ has classified the remnants of ‪#‎Dorian‬ AGAIN to 91L AGAIN!!!! Only a 20% chance as of now. A lot of pages and sources are posting pictures of early model guidance going into the ‪#‎Gulf‬ but I still see a trough coming down to pick this thing up more north then carry it northeast along the east coast and back out to sea! Waiting for more reliable models to come out later this evening Regardless of anything forming Florida should see some good rain and waves from this thing. Standby later as I will have more information on this pesky system...

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[Jolie Rouge]

NHC now gives ‪#‎Dorian‬ a 30% chance at regeneration.
Up from 20% 6 hours ago.

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[Jolie Rouge]

After falling apart about a week ago, Dorian has regenerated as a tropical depression off the coast of Florida this morning.

More: http://wxch.nl/1cy65tM

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[Jolie Rouge]

‎Tropics‬ are dead, at least for the next 48 hours. Models not showing much for development right now. Keeping watch...