Atlantic Tropical System a Potential Threat

[Jolie Rouge]

For the last couple of days we've been tracking a tropical wave moving westward in the Atlantic Ocean. These tropical waves are typical this time of year and we monitor each one very closely for any signs of development into a tropical depression, tropical storm or eventually a hurricane.

In the case of this tropical wave, it's no different. The environment is expected to become more favorable for development over the next few days as this wave moves east. A tropical depression or tropical storm could form in the coming days.

Below is the expected timing and path of this system provided by our Hurricane Expert Dr. Rick Knabb, Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross and Senior Meteorologist Stu Ostro.

Expected Path, Timing of Atlantic Tropical System

http://www.weather.com/weather/hurricanecentral/article/watching-atlantic-tropical-system_2011-08-18


Tropical Storm Harvey in the Caribbean

Tropical Depression Eight, which formed off the coast of Central America late Thursday night, has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Harvey as of Friday afternoon. This is the eighth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season.

As you can see on the projected path map below, Tropical Storm Harvey will track west into Central America over the weekend, with the primary threat being locally heavy rainfall. This system will not be a threat to the U.S.


Atlantic Tropical System Impacts: What You Need to Know

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Regardless of development, heavy rain along with possible flooding and mudslides are expected in the northeast Caribbean later this weekend. This is depicted on our threat level graphic below.

The steering pattern is favorable for this system to track towards the southeast United States after moving through the Caribbean.

Impacts on the United States are uncertain and are dependent on many factors, including how much land interaction in the northeast Caribbean disrupts the system. Therefore, we are depicting the threat to the Southeast below as "low", for now, due to the uncertainty this far out in time.

Timing for possible U.S. impacts would be later next week. As always, stay tuned to The Weather Channel and weather.com for the latest updates on this situation. Tune in at :50 after each hour for a full look at the tropics.

[Jolie Rouge]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0911W5_NL_sm2+gif/023912W5_NL_sm.gif

tropical storm irene advisory number 2
irene approaching the leeward islands

summary of 1100 pm ast...0300 utc...information

location...15.3n 59.9w about 95 mi...150 km e of dominica
about 120 mi...195 km se of guadeloupe
maximum sustained winds...50 mph...85 km/h
present movement...w or 280 degrees at 22 mph...35 km/h
minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches


watches and warnings : Changes in watches and warnings with this advisory... The government of the dominican republic has issued a tropical storm watch for the south coast of the dominican republic from the haiti border to cabo engano.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect... A tropical storm warning is in effect for * puerto rico...u.s. Virgin islands...vieques and culebra * saba...st. Eustatius...and st. Maartin * dominica * barbuda...st. Kitts... Nevis... Antigua... Anguilla... Montserrat * british virgin islands

a tropical storm watch is in effect for... * south coast of the dominican republic from the haiti border to
cabo engano tropical storm conditions could occur elsewhere in the northern leeward islands tonight and early sunday.

Hurricane conditions could occur in the dominican republic late on monday.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook ---- at 1100 pm ast...0300 utc...the center of tropical storm irene was located near latitude 15.3 north...longitude 59.9 west. Irene is moving toward the west near 22 mph...35 km/h...and a motion toward
west-northwest at a slower rate of speed is expected during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track...irene will pass through the leeward islands early sunday...and move into the northeastern caribbean sea later on sunday. Irene could approach the dominican republic late monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph...85 km/h...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and irene could become a hurricane on monday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 120 miles...195 km...mainly to the north and east of the center. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb...29.71 inches.


Hazards affecting land -- wind...tropical storm conditions are expected in the leeward islands overnight into sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin sunday afternoon in the virgin islands and puerto rico.
Hurricane conditions are possible over the dominican republic by late monday with tropical storm conditions possible by monday afternoon.

Rainfall...irene is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 7 inches in the leeward islands...puerto rico and the virgin islands...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 10 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in areas of steep terrain.

Storm surge...a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the warning area. Near the coast...the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

Next intermediate advisory...200 am ast.

Next complete advisory...500 am ast.

~~ forecaster blake/brennan

[Jolie Rouge]

Tropical Storm Irene barrels toward Puerto Rico
By DANICA COTO - Associated Press | AP – 2 hrs 11 mins ago

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) — Tropical Storm Irene barreled toward Puerto Rico late Sunday after hitting St. Croix, packing heavy rains and winds that closed airports and flooded low-lying areas in the Leeward Islands.

The fast-moving storm, moving west-northwest at roughly 15 mph (24 kph), was taking an unpredictable path that left people in the islands of the U.S. Caribbean anxious about the winds and rain to come.

On its current forecast track, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Irene was expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico late Sunday with maximum winds of 60 mph (95 kph). It's expected to strengthen into a hurricane on Monday as it approaches Hispaniola, the island shared by the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Nearly 600,000 people in Haiti still live without shelter after last year's earthquake.

On Sunday night, Irene's center was some 90 miles (145 kilometers) east-southeast of Puerto Rico.

Puerto Rico's main airport was swamped with people, the usual Sunday crowds combined with people rushing to get off the island before the storm or stranded because flights to a number of other islands had been canceled. There were long lines at check-in counters and at the airport hotel.

Jenny Chappell of Richmond, Virginia, returning from a weeklong business trip in Puerto Rico, was among those booking a room at the airport hotel, assuming that her 1 a.m. flight, at the height of the storm, would be canceled.

"My friend told me get a room, get some water, get some snacks because if anything goes down you'll need it," Chappell said.

Strong winds and battering rain were expected late Sunday over Puerto Rico, including its outlying islands of Culebra and Vieques, where 150 tourists were evacuated, according to Gov. Luis Fortuno. At least 4,000 people were without power and another 13,000 without water as the storm approached. U.S. forecasters had earlier expected the storm's center to pass just south of Puerto Rico's southern coast, but now said it could pass near or over the island of nearly 4 million inhabitants.

"The storm is wobbling a little bit. It is moving more to the west-northwest than we anticipated earlier," said Cristina Forbes, an oceanographer at the center. Sustained winds must reach 74 mph (119 kph) for the storm to be classified as a hurricane.

In the U.S. Virgin Islands, Gov. John deJongh declared a state of emergency in order to impose storm curfews.

"We've got what appears to be a direct hit on St. Croix," said governor spokesman Jean Greaux, who did not immediately have details about any possible damage on the largest and poorest of the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Emergency shelters were opened on St. Croix, where the port was closed. The Hovensa LLC refinery on St. Croix also closed its port because of the storm but operations remained normal at the refinery, one of the largest in the Western Hemisphere, said spokesman Steve Strahan.

In the southeastern Puerto Rican town of Patillas, Edgar Morales, owner of a roadside food stall, was one of the few business owners who opened Sunday despite the approaching storm.

"We're going to stay open until God allows it," said Morales, 35, who scanned TV news about the tropical storm with some of his customers.

Jose Rivas, 46, said he woke up early Sunday to place storm shutters on his house, fill his car with gas and take out money. He said he and his wife along with their two sons will spend the night at a hotel next to their house in Patillas.

"We'll leave as soon as the sea starts rising," he said.

In advance of Irene, Puerto Rican authorities urged islanders to secure their homes and pick up debris that high winds could turn into dangerous projectiles. Maritime officials advised people to stay away from the ocean because Irene could bring a dangerous storm surge to the coast.

"I strongly recommend that swimmers and recreational boaters avoid the ocean and that the general public stay away from shoreline rocks until the tropical storm passes and weather and surf conditions normalize," said Capt. Drew Pearson, a U.S. Coast Guard commander.

All schools and nearly all government offices in Puerto Rico will remain closed on Monday, Fortuno said.

The National Hurricane Center said the main impediment to the storm's progress over the next couple of days will be interaction with land. If Irene passes over Hispaniola's mountains or over parts of eastern Cuba, the storm could weaken more than currently expected.

"However, if the system ends up moving to the north of both of those land masses it could strengthen more than expected," wrote forecaster Richard Pasch.

The center's current forecast has Irene hitting southern Florida as a hurricane by Thursday.

Early Sunday, the storm churned up rough surf along a group of small islands in the eastern Caribbean that includes Antigua & Barbuda, St. Kitts & Nevis, Guadeloupe, and St. Maarten.

The storm caused some flooding in low-lying areas, and several countries and territories reported scattered power outages, but there were no immediate reports of serious damage or injuries. The storm was expected to dump up to 7 inches (18 centimeters) of rain on the islands.

Forecasters said tropical storm force winds extended outward up to 150 miles (240 kilometers), mainly to the north of Irene's center.

___

Associated Press writers Ben Fox in San Juan, Puerto Rico, Anika Kentish in St. John's, Antigua, Carlisle Jno Baptiste in Roseau, Dominica and Judi Shimel in Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands contributed to this report.

http://news.yahoo.com/tropical-storm-irene-barrels-toward-puerto-rico-160652097.html


Nearly 600,000 people in Haiti still live without shelter after last year's earthquake.

Despite all the aide that poured into that country, this figure is pathetic

~~

Something to think about: Tampa, Florida hasn't been struck by a hurricane since 1928. Tampa is only a few dozen feet above sea level; so any storm surge from Irene would fill it up like a bowl such as depicted of NYC in the movie "The Day After Tomorrow". The damage caused by a storm surge from Irene would be worse than what damage Katrina caused in New Orleans.
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[Jolie Rouge]

Hurricane Irene marks 1st big US threat in years
By CURT ANDERSON - Associated Press | AP – 3 mins 2 secs ago

MIAMI (AP) — Emergency officials from Florida to the Carolinas were closely watching Irene Tuesday as the first hurricane to seriously threaten the U.S. in three years churned over energizing tropical waters. The storm has already cut a destructive path through the Caribbean.

Forecasters say the hurricane could grow to a monstrous Category 4 storm with winds of more than 131 mph before it's predicted to come ashore this weekend on the U.S. mainland. The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami expected Irene to reach Category 3 strength on Tuesday, said spokesman Dennis Feltgen.

Officials could begin issuing watches for parts of the U.S. mainland later in the day. Because the storm is so large, Florida could begin feeling some effects from the storm late Wednesday.

Current government models have the storm's outer bands sweeping Florida late this week before it takes aim at the Carolinas this weekend, though forecasters caution that predictions made days in advance can be off by hundreds of miles. Georgia is also likely to be affected.

The last hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. was Ike, which pounded Texas in 2008.

For now, the first Atlantic hurricane of the season had maximum sustained winds early Tuesday around 100 mph (160 kph) and was centered about 55 miles (90 kilometers) northeast of Puerto Plata in the Dominican Republic. The hurricane was moving west-northwest near 10 mph (17 kph). "For residents in states that may be affected later this week, it's critical that you take this storm seriously," said Craig Fugate, administrator at the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Emergency officials in North Carolina were checking "pre-landfall operations" to make sure equipment such as trucks, forklifts, generators and computers were working, said Ernie Seneca, spokesman for the state Department of Crime Control and Public Safety. Also, they were taking inventory of food and water supplies.

To the south in Miami, Julio Gonzalez was heeding the warnings and headed to a hardware store to pick up what he needed to protect his home. "I'm gonna board up," he said Monday. "It's best to play it safe."

Others were stocking up on bottled water and plywood. And Hurricane Irene was trending on Twitter, with many users sharing updates on the storm's progress while others hoped it wouldn't come their way. "We want to make sure Floridians are paying attention," said Bryan Koon, director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, who met Monday with the governor. "We are at the height of the hurricane season right now. If it's not Hurricane Irene, it could be the follow-up storm that impacts us."

After several extremely active years, Florida has not been struck by a hurricane since Wilma raked across the state's south in October 2005. That storm was responsible for at least five deaths in the state and came two months after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita devastated New Orleans and the entire Gulf Coast.

Irene slashed directly across Puerto Rico, tearing up trees and knocking out power to more than a million people. It then headed out to sea, north of the Dominican Republic, where the powerful storm's outer bands were buffeting the north coast with dangerous sea surge and downpours. President Barack Obama declared an emergency for Puerto Rico, making it eligible for federal help.

Irene was forecast to pass over or near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas by Tuesday night and be near the central Bahamas early Wednesday. In the U.K. territory of the Turks and Caicos, a steady stream of customers bought plywood and nails at hardware stores, while others readied storm shutters and emergency kits at home. "I can tell you I don't want this storm to come. It looks like it could get bad, so I've definitely got to get my boats out of the water," said Dedrick Handfield at the North Caicos hardware store where he works.

Many of the center's computer models had the storm veering northward away from Florida's east coast toward Georgia and the Carolinas. A hurricane center forecast map said the storm's center could come ashore in one of the states on Saturday or Sunday, but forecasters said much was still unclear. "In terms of where it's going to go, there is still a pretty high level of uncertainty," said Wallace Hogsett, a National Hurricane Center meteorologist. "It's a very difficult forecast in terms of when it's going to turn northward."

In South Carolina, emergency agencies went on alert for what could be the first hurricane to hit there in seven years. "This is potentially a very serious hurricane," longtime Charleston Mayor Joseph P. Riley Jr. said. He led Charleston's recovery from the massive destruction of Hurricane Hugo's 135 mph winds and waves back in 1989.

It's been more than a century since Georgia has taken a direct hit from a Category 3 storm or greater. That was in 1893 and the last hurricane to make landfall along the state's 100-mile coast was David, which caused only minor damage when it struck in 1979.

Across Florida, emergency management agencies were closely monitoring Irene's movements and track. They urged residents to make sure they have batteries, drinking water, food and other supplies available in case Irene takes aim at the state. "We must prepare for the worst and hope for the best," said Joe Martinez, chairman of the Miami-Dade County Commission.

Gov. Scott met with state emergency management officials and the state meteorologist, poring over detailed charts involving windspeed and steering currents. Scott, a first-term Republican who has not experienced a hurricane as governor, asked questions such as how much advanced notice would be needed for evacuations of low-lying areas. "Irene's going to be close," Amy Godsey, the state meteorologist, told Scott. "We're not out of the woods yet."

Scott replied, "I'm an optimist."

http://news.yahoo.com/hurricane-irene-marks-1st-big-us-threat-years-071828290.html

comments

I put this together for all of you with the misconception that because it doesn't hit the US that there where no hurricanes 2010 was a record year the reason 2009 was somewhat quiet was the El nino effect. If a tree falls in the woods?

The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season was a very active hurricane season with sixteen named storms formed, including eight that became hurricanes and five that became major hurricanes

The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season was a below-average year, unlike the 2009 Pacific hurricane season, which was above average, both due to a moderate El Niño. During this year, nine tropical storms formed, the fewest since the 1997 season. Although Tropical Depression One formed on May 28, the season officially began on June 1, 2009 and ended on November 30. The season's last storm, Hurricane Ida dissipated on November 10. The season had eleven tropical depressions, of which nine intensified into tropical storms, three became hurricanes, and two became major hurricanes.

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was a well above average season due to a moderate La Niña, with the most number of named storms since the 2005 season. The 2010 Atlantic season ties with the 1995 Atlantic hurricane season and the 1887 Atlantic hurricane season for the third largest number of named storms, with 19, and it also ties with the 1969 Atlantic hurricane season for the second largest number of hurricanes, with 12. In addition, the activity in the north Atlantic in 2010 exceeded the activity in the northwest Pacific Typhoon season. The only other known time this event happened was in 2005.

[Jolie Rouge]

Hurricane Irene's latest forecast puts highly populated Northeast cities, including New York, under a hurricane threat that the region hasn't seen in a generation. We cannot stress enough that you need to watch Irene's developments very closely from North Carolina to Maine.


HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...IRENE BEARING DOWN ON THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

LOCATION...21.1N 71.8W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS, THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH ... LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK ... THE
CORE OF IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ... AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ... AND NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER ... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY... WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE ... AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ... AND BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. NEAR THE COAST... THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH IRENE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS... AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

[Jolie Rouge]

U.S. East Coast alerted to Hurricane Irene threat
By Neil Hartnell | Reuters – 4 hrs ago

NASSAU (Reuters) - The U.S. put its eastern seaboard on alert for Hurricane Irene on Tuesday as the powerful storm barreled up from the Caribbean on a path that could hit the U.S. coast on the weekend.

Even as the first hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic season pounded the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas with battering winds and rain and dangerous storm surge, coastal residents in Florida and the Carolinas were preparing for Irene's approach.

"I pray God's blessing on us all," Bahamas Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham said as he urged residents of his Atlantic archipelago nation southeast of Florida to take shelter.

Irene is the ninth named storm of the busy June-through-November season and looks set to be the first hurricane to hit the United States since Ike pounded the Texas coast in 2008.

It weakened on Tuesday to a Category 1 hurricane on the five-step Saffir Simpson scale of intensity, but could strengthen into a major Category 3 storm with winds over 111 miles per hour (178 km per hour) by Thursday, the Hurricane Center forecasters said.

While warning the entire U.S. East Coast to be on the alert, Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Craig Fugate and National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read said it was too early to be certain where Irene would directly hit the coastline.

"We're going to have a very large tropical cyclone move up the Eastern Seaboard over the next five to seven days," Read said on a conference call in which he spoke along with Fugate.

The "best guess" forecast was that it would approach the coast of the Carolinas on Saturday morning as a major storm of Category 3 or upward, Read said.

After that, the already saturated New England region of the East Coast could also be at particular risk for torrential rains, high winds and flooding from Irene, Fugate said. Major eastern cities like Washington and New York could feel some impact from Irene, the forecast indicated.

In a separate development, a magnitude 5.9 earthquake struck the U.S. East Coast, shaking Washington, New York and other cities.

Irene could put a damper on Sunday's dedication ceremony for the new memorial honoring civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jnr. on Washington's National Mall. Tens of thousands of people, including President Barack Obama, were expected to attend.

Forecasts showed Irene posing no threat to U.S. oil and gas installations in the Gulf of Mexico.

SALT HARVEST HALTED

Irene was heading west-northwest over the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas.

At 5 p.m. (2100 GMT), it had top winds of 90 miles per hour and was centered 110 miles east of Great Inagua Island in the southern Bahamas. Forecasters warned that a storm surge up to 13-feet high could wash over parts of the Bahamas.

Cruise line Royal Caribbean rearranged itineraries for six ships, skipping two scheduled stops at its Coco Cay island in the Bahamas so staff could prepare and evacuate.

Carnival Cruise Lines changed ports of call or shifted the arrival or departure times at ports for seven of its ships, a spokesman said.

Morton Salt shut down its operations on Great Inagua because rain melts the salt cake in its crystallizers, leaving it unable to continue the salt harvest. The company temporarily laid off 100 workers this month after getting more than double the average rainfall in July.

"We are hoping and praying we don't get any more precipitation from this hurricane," said Glen Bannister, Morton Salt's managing director.

In North Carolina, where Irene was forecast to come ashore on Saturday, Governor Bev Perdue urged residents to make sure they had three days worth of food, water and supplies.

"You may lose water or electrical power during the storm, and grocery stores and other businesses may be closed. Also make sure you know the evacuation routes," Perdue said.

Evacuations were to begin on Wednesday for parts of North Carolina's Outer Banks, the stretch of barrier islands and beaches jutting into the Atlantic Ocean. Tourists were ordered to leave some areas.

At a hardware store in Charleston, South Carolina, Carlito Resnicki, 29, hauled sheets of plywood to his car to board up his home. "I have a wife. ... Mama Bear said go buy plywood, so I came."

Irene could still swing farther east away from the U.S. coast. But if it skirts North Carolina's Outer Banks without weakening and then plows northward through the heavily populated mid-Atlantic and New England coasts as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, "It could become one of the ten most damaging hurricanes in history," hurricane expert Jeff Masters of private forecaster Weather Underground wrote in his blog.

Obama was briefed about Irene while on vacation at the Massachusetts island of Martha's Vineyard. He signed an emergency declaration on Monday for Puerto Rico after the storm pummeled the U.S. territory with heavy rains and winds. Puerto Rican authorities reported power outages and some flooding, but there were no reports of deaths or injuries.

http://news.yahoo.com/irene-strengthens-category-2-hurricane-031002614.html

[Jolie Rouge]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/ft-l.jpg


Irene becomes Cat 3 hurricane on way to East Coast
AP – 18 mins ago

MIAMI (AP) — Hurricane Irene has strengthened to a major Category 3 storm as it heads toward the East Coast.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says Irene's maximum sustained winds have increased Wednesday to near 115 mph (185 kph) with additional strengthening forecast during the next day or so.

Meanwhile, evacuations have begun on a tiny barrier island off North Carolina early Wednesday in a test of whether people in the crosshairs of the first serious hurricane along the East Coast in years will heed orders to get out of the way.

Irene is centered about 335 miles (540 kilometers) southeast of Nassau in the Bahamas and is moving west-northwest near 9 mph (15 kph).

http://news.yahoo.com/irene-becomes-cat-3-hurricane-way-east-coast-120542878.html

[Jolie Rouge]

Hurricane Irene affirms 'magic' hurricane date
LiveScience.com – 5 hrs ag

Hurricane watchers circle Aug. 20 on their calendars every year. This is the "magic" date when hurricane season seems to kicks into high gear.

Like clockwork, Hurricane Irene — the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2011 — was born on Aug. 22, later strengthening to a Category 2 hurricane. Last year was another good example of an active storm season ramping up after Aug. 20. All of the 2010's major hurricanes (those of Category 3 or higher) formed after Aug. 20, starting with Danielle on Aug. 21.

Aug. 20 seems to be special because around this time, the air and ocean are in just the right state to foster and feed the monster storms. In climate-speak, this time of year is when vertical shear (a change in wind directions with height) in the atmosphere is low enough and sea surface temperatures are warm enough to create big storms.

http://news.yahoo.com/hurricane-irene-affirms-magic-hurricane-date-004631453.html

[Jolie Rouge]

To stay or go? Officials ponder Irene evacuations
By MARTHA WAGGONER - Associated Press | AP – 1 hr 6 mins ago

HATTERAS, N.C. (AP) — Hurricane Irene could hit anywhere from North Carolina to New York this weekend, leaving officials in the path of uncertainty to make a delicate decision. Should they tell tourists to leave during one of the last weeks of the multibillion-dollar summer season?

Most were in a wait-and-see mode, holding out to get every dime before the storm's path crystalizes. North Carolina's governor told reporters not to scare people away. "You will never endanger your tourists, but you also don't want to over inflate the sense of urgency about the storm. And so let's just hang on," North Carolina Gov. Beverly Perdue said Wednesday. At the same time she warned to "prepare for the worst."

In the Bahamas, tourists cut their vacations short and caught the last flights out before the airport was closed. Those who remained behind with locals prepared for a rough night of violent winds and a dangerous storm surge that threatened to punish the low-lying chain of islands. Irene has already hit Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, causing landslides and flooding homes. One woman was killed.

On the Outer Banks of North Carolina, some tourists heeded evacuation orders for a tiny barrier island as Irene strengthened to a Category 3 storm, with winds of 120 mph (193 kph). "We jam-packed as much fun as we could into the remainder of Tuesday," said Jessica Stanton Tice of Charleston, W.Va. She left Ocracoke Island on an early-morning ferry with her husband and toddler. "We're still going to give North Carolina our vacation business, but we're going to Asheville" in the mountains, she said.

Officials said Irene could cause flooding, power outages or worse as far north as Maine, even if the eye of the storm stays offshore. Hurricane-force winds were expected 50 miles from the center of the storm.

Predicting the path of such a huge storm can be tricky, but the National Hurricane Center uses computer models to come up with a "cone of uncertainty," a three-day forecast that has become remarkably accurate in recent years. Forecasters are still about a day away from the cone reaching the East Coast. A system currently over the Great Lakes will play a large role in determining if Irene is pushed farther to the east in the next three or four days.

The mood was calm in Virginia Beach, Va. Jimmy Capps, manager of the Breakers Resort Inn, said the 56-room hotel is about 80 percent booked for the weekend, despite a few cancellations. "It just appears they're not quite sure what the storm is going to do," Capps said. "The thing I'm amazed at now is that we haven't had more cancellations so far. Usually when they start mentioning the Outer Banks and Cape Lookout, which we are between, the phones light up."

In nearby Norfolk, the Navy ordered the Second Fleet to prepare to move out to sea early Thursday to keep the ships safe from the storm.

In New England, some beachgoers started second-guessing vacation plans. Steven Miller, who runs a charter sport fishing company off the coast of Rhode Island, hasn't received any cancellations, but no one has been calling to schedule trips in the next few days, either. "The hoopla beforehand could end the season," Miller said. "Everybody yanks their boats out, everybody leaves, and then they don't come back because it's so late in the season."

Sandbags were in demand in the Northeast to protect already saturated grounds from flooding. Country music star Kenny Chesney moved a Sunday concert in Foxborough, Mass., up to Friday to avoid the storm. High school football games were also rescheduled, and officials still hadn't decided whether to postpone Sunday's dedication of the Martin Luther King Jr. memorial on the National Mall. Hundreds of thousands were expected for that event. "Tourism depends so much on the weather, which is such an unpredictable element," said Samantha Rich, a tourism extension specialist at North Carolina State University. "An extremely hot season, an extremely cold season, a hurricane — it can make or break a season, especially for small businesses."

In North Carolina's Outer Banks, where about 300,000 visitors come every week in the summer, tourism is the lifeblood of the towns that dot the sandy barrier islands. Dare County beaches are the state's top vacation destination and it ordered tourists out beginning Thursday morning. Tourism represents about $834 million for businesses in the county, which has 8,000 rental homes and 3,000 hotel rooms, plus campground spots.

Business owners are wary of sacrificing a weekend in August if it's not completely necessary. "We had that occur last year, with Earl," said Veda Peters, co-owner of the Cypress House Inn in Kill Devil Hills. He was referring to the hurricane that passed off to the east, bringing little more than a night of rain and some wind gusts. "They evacuated the county, and then Labor Day weekend was gorgeous in the Outer Banks."

So far, the Cypress House Inn is fully booked for the coming weekend, but Peters already is getting calls about the weather. "If it's safe for people to be here, we want them to be here. If it's not safe, we'll say so and we'll get you in as soon as it is," said Lee Nettles, managing director or the Outer Banks Visitors Bureau. "We have a peak summer season and we're in the midst of that."

http://news.yahoo.com/stay-officials-ponder-irene-evacuations-210145924.html

comments

North Carolina's governor told reporters not to scare people away.
"You will never endanger your tourists, but you also don't want to over inflate the sense of urgency about the storm. And so let's just hang on," North Carolina Gov. Beverly Perdue said Wednesday. At the same time she warned to "prepare for the worst."

Hey retard, a hurricane's something that you'd better get a sense of urgency about! Because by the time it's about to hit, it's too late to evacuate. Friggin Perdue's more concerned about losing tourist bucks than she is about their safety! But what can you expect from a democrook, more concerned about getting other people's money than about the people.

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Hope someone is thinking of the poor without cars or means of evacuation and money to stay in a hotel or stock up on supplies.Food and water should be free for the needy.

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Based on the latest model trends and the NWS offices starting to launch WX Balloons every 6 hours over most of the NE and Midwest....I'd say she is going to be a beast, one for the ages. NYC and LI watch out!!!

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Very nasty. However, anyone that doesn't pay attention to the warnings should NOT get any TAXPAYER MONEY. Just ask HOUSTON what they have put up with since Katrina. I went through the earthquake in San Francisco in 1990. NEVER took a taxpayer-funded dime but went to work at 4:30 A.M. to open up the plant, because the Bay Bridge was down for our production employees. PAID MY TAXES!!!!!!!!!!!

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Ray Nagin says : "Stay"

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Hurricane Ike was a Category 3 Hurricane that hit Houston and knocked out power for 3 weeks. The Woodlands (100 miles inland) and all of Houston got hammered. There were dozens of inbedded tornados that knocked down huge pine trees iun the Woodlands. Get away from this storm now. Take your wife and kids and get away now. Do not wait until 24 hours, the roads will be jammed. Leave Now!!

[Jolie Rouge]

Hurricane Irene tightens aim on East Coast
By MITCH WEISS - SETH BORENSTEIN - Associated Press | AP – 5 mins ago

BUXTON, N.C. (AP) — A monstrous Hurricane Irene tightened its aim on the Eastern Seaboard on Thursday, threatening 65 million people along a shore-hugging path from North Carolina to New England. One of the nation's top experts called it his "nightmare" scenario.

The Category 3 storm with winds of 115 mph — the threshold for a major hurricane — would be the strongest to strike the East Coast in seven years, and people were already getting out of the way. Tens of thousands fled North Carolina beach towns, farmers pulled up their crops, and the Navy ordered ships to sea so they could endure the punishing wind and waves in open water.

All eyes were on Irene's projected path, which showed it bringing misery to every city along the I-95 corridor, including Washington, New York and Boston. The former chief of the National Hurricane Center called it one of his three worst possible situations. "One of my greatest nightmares was having a major hurricane go up the whole Northeast Coast," Max Mayfield, the center's retired director, told The Associated Press. He said the damage will probably climb into billions of dollars: "This is going to have an impact on the United States economy."

The head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency said damages could exceed most previous storms because so many people live along the East Coast and property values are high. "We've got a lot more people that are potentially in the path of this storm," FEMA Director Craig Fugate said in an interview with The Associated Press. "This is one of the largest populations that will be impacted by one storm at one time."

The storm would "have a lot of impact well away from the coastline," he added. "A little bit of damage over big areas with large populations can add up fast."

Irene was massive, with tropical-force winds extending almost twice as far as normal, about the same size as Katrina, which devastated New Orleans in 2005. "It's not going to be a Katrina, but it's serious," said MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel. "People have to take it seriously."

The governors of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New York and New Jersey declared emergencies to free up resources, and authorities all the way to New England urged residents in low-lying areas to gather supplies and learn the way to a safe location. Irene was expected to come ashore Saturday in North Carolina with 115 mph winds and a storm surge of 5 to 10 feet. Warnings were out for the entire coast. It could dump a foot of rain, with as much as 15 inches falling in some places along the coast and around Chesapeake Bay.

With heavy rain and storm surge predicted for the nation's capital, organizers postponed Sunday's dedication of the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial on the National Mall. Already in South Florida near West Palm Beach, authorities blame the rough ocean churned up by the outer bands of Irene for injuring eight people when a wave knocked them off a jetty.

Scientists predict Irene will chug up the coast. Some forecasts showed it taking dead aim at New York City, with its eye passing over Brooklyn and Manhattan before weakening and trudging through New England.

If the storm strikes New York, it will probably be a Category 1 or 2, depending on its exact track, hurricane specialist John Cangialosi said.

Hurricanes are rare in the Northeast because the region's cooler seas tend to weaken storms as they approach, and they have to take a narrow track to strike New York without first hitting other parts of the coast and weakening there.

Still, strong storms have been known to unleash serious damage in an urban environment already surrounded by water.

A September 1821 hurricane raised tides by 13 feet in an hour and flooded all of Manhattan south of Canal Street — an area that now includes the nation's financial capital. An infamous 1938 storm dubbed the Long Island Express came ashore about 75 miles east of the city and then hit New England, killing 700 people and leaving 63,000 homeless.

On Thursday, Ocean City, Md., officials ordered thousands of residents and tourists to abandon the beach community. "This is not a time to get out the camera and sit on the beach and take pictures of the waves," said Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley.

Earlier in North Carolina, three coastal counties issued evacuation orders covering more than 200,000 people, including tourists and full-time residents. President Barack Obama declared an emergency for the state, allowing for federal help.

Dania Armstrong of New York sat outside a motel smoking a cigarette while she waited for her family to get ready. Armstrong, her daughter and grandchildren had already been ordered off the island of Ocracoke and planned to leave the town of Buxton soon. "I've been coming down here for 50 years," she said. "I know what's coming. It's time to leave. You don't want to be here when it hits."

John Robeson, an accountant from New Jersey, brought his wife and two children down for a week, but they were cutting the trip short after three days. "I'm disappointed," he said as he loaded his car. "You wait all year. Talk about it. Make plans for your vacation. And now this. It's a bad break."

Other year-round residents planned to ride it out, despite warnings from authorities that they will be on their own immediately after the storm. "If you leave, you can't get back for days because of the roads, and you don't know what's going on with your property," said Kathy MacKenzie, who works at Dillon's Corner, a general store in Buxton.

Ollie Jarvis, the store's owner, said he's staying and preparing for the worst. During Hurricane Emily in 1993, his store was flooded with 18 inches of water and sand from a storm surge. Like a spear, the water pushed a T-shirt rack filled with clothes through the ceiling. They still have the high-water mark on a wall near the cash register. "I can't leave. You have to worry about the stuff you have. You have to save what you can," he said.

Bobby Overbey of Virginia Beach, Va., pulled into a gas station in his Jeep with two surfboards hanging on the back. He planned to stay, despite the evacuation orders. Usually the waves top out at 2 to 3 feet. On Thursday, he was riding 4- and 5-foot waves. "You live for this," he said.

Farmers grimly accepted the fate of their crops. Strong winds and widespread flooding could mean billions of dollars in losses for corn, cotton, soybean, tobacco and timber growers. While most farmers have disaster insurance, policies often pay only about 70 percent of actual losses.

Wilson Daughtry owns Alligator River Growers near Engelhard, near Pamlico Sound. Though he is under a mandatory evacuation order, Daughtry and his workers planned to stay to salvage what corn and squash they can. He said he's lost count of how many times his crops have been wiped out by storms. "Hurricanes are just part of doing business down here," he said.

In Virginia, officials recalled Hurricane Isabel in 2003, which came ashore as a Category 1, killed more than 30 people and caused more than $1 billion in property damage. The low-lying Hampton Roads region is at high risk of flooding from storm surge and heavy rains. Widespread power outages are likely.

The Navy ordered many of its ships at Norfolk Naval Station out to sea to wait out the storm, including the aircraft carrier USS Dwight Eisenhower, as well as destroyers and submarines. Gearing up for approaching hurricanes is an almost annual occurrence in coastal North Carolina and Virginia, so planning is extensive and almost second-nature.

Building codes along the Outer Banks require structures to be reinforced to withstand sustained winds of up to 110 mph and gusts up to 130 mph. Houses close to the water must be elevated on pilings to keep them above storm surges, and required setbacks preserve sand dunes to provide additional protection.

[Jolie Rouge]

It could be a different story as the storm moves up the coast. In Washington, where residents were rattled by a rare earthquake Tuesday, officials warned people to be prepared for stormy conditions regardless of Irene's exact path and to stay away from the beaches in the region.

The Philadelphia area could get more than a half-foot of rain, accompanied by sustained winds up to 50 mph. Mayor Michael Nutter said it could be the worst storm in at least 50 years. August has already been one of the rainiest months in city history.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie asked all visitors to the shore to get out by midday Friday. He said Irene was poised to be a "serious, significant event," with flooding a threat across the entire state. A mandatory evacuation was ordered for Cape May County.

In a normal hurricane, tropical storm-force winds extend about 150 miles from the eye. Irene's winds extend nearly 250 miles. Another worry is that the ground is already saturated in the Northeast after a wet spring and summer. That means trees and power lines will be more vulnerable to winds, like during Hurricane Isabel, Mayfield said.

New York is especially susceptible with its large subway network and the waterways around the city, Mayfield said. "In many ways, a Category 2 or stronger storm hitting New York is a lot of people's nightmare," said Susan Cutter, director of the Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute at the University of South Carolina. High water in the harbor and rivers, along with a high tide at the end of the month because of the new moon, could cause serious flooding. New York's three airports are close to the water, putting them at risk, too, Cutter said. And if the storm shifts further to the west, placing New York City on the stronger right-hand quadrant of the storm, "that is what's going to push this wall of water into the bays and the Hudson River."

http://news.yahoo.com/hurricane-irene-tightens-aim-east-coast-223254202.html

[Jolie Rouge]

New York City preps for 1st hurricane in decades
By JENNIFER PELTZ - SETH BORENSTEIN - Associated Press | AP – 26 mins ago

NEW YORK (AP) — Hundreds of thousands of New Yorkers were told Thursday to pack a bag and prepare to be evacuated as the nation's biggest city braced for its first hurricane in decades.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg ordered nursing homes and five hospitals in low-lying areas evacuated beginning Friday and said he would order 270,000 other people moved by Saturday if the storm stays on its current path.

Hurricane Irene was on track to make landfall Saturday in North Carolina and then move up the East Coast, reaching the New York area by late Sunday.

"For the general public, it's a good idea to move Friday," Bloomberg said. "Keep in mind, it is possible — I don't know that I want to say likely — but it is very conceivable ... that Saturday morning at 8 o'clock, we're going to say, 'Look, the forecast has not changed. The storm is still barreling down on us. It's still very dangerous. You must get out of these areas.'"

Evacuating hundreds of thousands of people would be particularly difficult in New York, where there are about 1.6 million people in Manhattan, many without cars. There are about 6.8 million in the city's other four boroughs.

"Don't wait until the last minute," the mayor said. "If you can move out on Friday, that's great."

Bloomberg advised residents on the southern tip of Manhattan and on Brooklyn's Coney Island to start moving items upstairs and to be ready to leave immediately. Apartment building managers emailed residents, telling them to close windows and expect power outages. Flyers were posted in building lobbies.

"If you have a car and you live in a low-lying area, my suggestion is to park on top of a hill, not in the valley," Bloomberg said. "It's those kinds of things. Take some precautions now, so that if it gets to that you'll have less to do."

Irene rolled toward the Carolinas on Thursday with winds of 115 mph. The storm was expected to weaken after brushing North Carolina's Outer Banks, but it will still likely be a hurricane when it rumbles toward the Northeast.

Forecasters said passing near Manhattan could lead to a nightmare scenario: shattered glass falling from skyscrapers, flooded subways and seawater coursing through the streets.

In the last 200 years, New York has seen only a few significant hurricanes. In September of 1821, a hurricane raised tides by 13 feet in an hour and flooded all of Manhattan south of Canal Street, the southernmost tip of the city. The area now includes Wall Street and the World Trade Center memorial.

In 1938, a storm dubbed the Long Island Express came ashore about 75 miles east of the city on neighboring Long Island and then hit New England, killing 700 people and leaving 63,000 homeless.

Craig Fugate, head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, worries about a storm surge coming into Manhattan, home to some of the most valuable real estate in the country. He noted pictures from a 1944 hurricane where police in Midtown, where Times Square, Broadway theaters and the Empire State Building are located, were standing in waist-deep water.

"This is going to have a lot of impacts well away from the coastline," Fugate said. "A little bit of damage over big areas with large populations can add up fast."

In Lower Manhattan, few seemed preoccupied with preparations.

"I live on the 10th floor of a 30-story building," said Sam Laury, who lives in Battery Park City, one of the areas that Bloomberg said might be evacuated. "I'm sure I'll be fine."

Irene is a large storm, with tropical storm-force winds extending nearly 300 miles from its center. And the storm could hit at a time when high tides reach their highest levels, which could amplify flooding in a city built around bays and rivers. Some experts predict a storm surge of five feet or more. Lower Manhattan could see streets under a few feet of water.

"In many ways, a Category 2 or stronger storm hitting New York is a lot of people's nightmare, for a number of reasons," said Susan Cutter, director of the Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute at the University of South Carolina.

Even if the winds aren't strong enough to damage buildings made largely of brick, concrete and steel, a lot of New York's subway system and power lines are underground. The city's airports are close to the water, too, and could be inundated, as could densely packed neighborhoods. Hospitals were told to make sure generators were ready.

Poised to brush one of the most densely populated parts of the country, Irene could cause billions or even hundreds of billions of dollars in damage, said Kathleen Tierney, director of the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado.

http://news.yahoo.com/york-city-preps-1st-hurricane-decades-001549882.html

[Jolie Rouge]

Hurricane Irene Looks 'Terrifying' From Space, Astronaut Says
By Tariq Malik , SPACE.com Managing Editor 17 hrs ago

Hurricane Irene is bearing down on the U.S. East Coast and has turned into a frightening storm, according to an astronaut on the International Space Station.

NASA astronaut Mike Fossum said that Hurricane Irene, like all hurricanes, looks "terrifying from above," and its evolution into a major storm this week has been unmistakable from orbit.

"We saw a big change in the structure of the storm over the several days that we've watched her, especially yesterday," Fossum told SPACE.com today (Aug. 25) during a video interview from space.

Hurricane Irene is currently a Category 3 storm with winds of 115 mph (185 kph) that is battering the Bahamas. Space station astronauts and satellites have kept a constant watch on the growing storm. [Photos: Hurricane Irene Views From Space]




The storm is expected to hit the North Carolina coast on Saturday (Aug. 27) and follow the coastline north, where it may make landfall on Long Island, posing a threat to New York City, according to OurAmazingPlanet, a sister site of SPACE.com.


Fossum, a native of Texas who has seen many hurricanes from the ground and space, said that two days ago the eye of Hurricane Irene wasn't as stable as it appears now. The storm has grown more organized and uniform as this week wore on, he added.

"There's kind of a dome shape to the whole thing, with the eye fully formed," Fossum said. "Yesterday you could see the eye wall and down into the eye itself. You know that is a powerful storm, and those are never good news when they're headed your way. So our prayers and thoughts are with the people in its path."

Fossum is one of six astronauts living aboard the International Space Station and is in the middle of a six-month spaceflight. His crewmate Ron Garan, also of NASA, has been posting photos of Irene from orbit each day as the space station has been flying over the huge storm.

NASA is also broadcasting live views of Hurricane Irene from the space station when the orbiting lab sails over the storm.

http://news.yahoo.com/hurricane-irene-looks-terrifying-space-astronaut-says-174601334.html

[Jolie Rouge]

Hurricane Irene targets East Coast, many evacuate, cities brace
By Jim Brumm | Reuters – 2 hrs 23 mins ago

WILMINGTON, North Carolina (Reuters) - Hurricane Irene bore down on North Carolina on Friday, tens of thousands of people evacuated and East Coast cities including New York braced for a weekend hit from the powerful storm.

Fifty-five million people are potentially in Irene's path from the Carolinas to Cape Cod. Tens of thousands of coastal residents were leaving their homes for safety, starting in east North Carolina that juts into the Atlantic ocean and where Irene is due to make its first U.S. landfall on Saturday. "This is a big, bad storm," North Carolina Governor Bev Perdue said. "We are prepared for the worst, praying for the best ... we are ready," she told CNN.

Coastal communities from the Carolinas to New England, stocked up on food and water and tried to secure homes, vehicles and boats. States, cities, ports, hospitals, oil refineries and nuclear plants activated emergency plans. Forecasters expect that after hitting North Carolina's eastern coast as a powerful, broad hurricane on Saturday, Irene will then rake up the densely-populated U.S. eastern seaboard to New York, America's most populous city of more than eight million inhabitants, and beyond. "Flooding, flash flooding and power outages will impact a lot of folks," Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Craig Fugate told CNN. The capital was also expected to feel wind and rain impact.

Extensive flight and rail service cancellations were expected.

Hurricane warnings and watches were in effect from North Carolina northwards as far as Massachusetts. Cities covered by these alerts included New York City and Boston. EQECAT, a company that helps the insurance industry predict disaster damage, said Irene's forecast track represented "one of the worst-case scenarios" for the United States. It was one of the biggest storms to threaten the northeast in decades. "I filled my tank up with gas in case I need to leave in a hurry or something, and get a lot of food supplies, taking everything out of my yard ... anything that can fly into a window," said Patricia Stapleton of Newport, North Carolina.

Irene weakened slightly early on Friday -- to a Category 2 hurricane from a Category 3 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale -- but still was packing winds of up to 110 miles per hour. At 8 a.m. EDT, its center was about 375 miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving north.

NORTHEAST CITIES IN PATH

"Some re-intensification is possible today and Irene is expected to be near the threshold between Category Two and Three as it reaches the North Carolina coast," the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Coastal evacuations were under way in North Carolina and were ordered for beach resorts in Virginia, Delaware and Maryland. Airlines began to cut flights at eastern airports, made plans to move aircraft from the region and encouraged travelers to consider postponing trips.

"All the major metropolitan areas along the northeast are going to be impacted," National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read told Reuters Insider. "Being a large hurricane, tropical storm-force winds will extend far inland."

Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell urged residents to seek shelter by Friday night, before the winds kick up.

"Saturday is going to be a horrendous day for travel. There will be roads and bridges closed," he said.

Anticipating severe storm damage in North Carolina, U.S. President Barack Obama declared an emergency on Thursday, authorizing federal aid to support that state's response. The governors of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York and Connecticut also declared emergencies.

Even if the center of Irene stays offshore as it tracks up the coast, its heavy winds and rain could lash cities like Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York and knock out power, forecasters said.

Irene will be the first hurricane to hit the U.S. mainland since Ike pounded Texas in 2008.

NEW YORK PREPARES

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg said the city was bracing for storm conditions and flooding starting on Sunday.

He urged residents of vulnerable areas to move to safety on Friday because the mass transit system, the nation's biggest with 8 million passengers a day, may have to shut if flooding or high winds endanger its buses, subways and commuter trains.

Many New Yorkers do not have cars, so mass transit could be vital in evacuations.

Long Island, the populous area that extends about 100 miles east into the Atlantic Ocean from New York City, could be hit hard if Irene stays on its current track.

In Washington, Irene forced the postponement of Sunday's dedication ceremony for the new memorial honoring civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. Tens of thousands of people, including Obama, had been expected to attend.

Flooding from Irene killed at least one person in Puerto Rico and two in the Dominican Republic. The storm knocked out power in the Bahamian capital Nassau and blocked roadways with fallen trees.

http://news.yahoo.com/east-coast-irenes-path-scrambles-prepare-003351853.html

NY mayor: Coastal residents should move out Friday
By Joan Gralla | Reuters – 2 hrs 20 mins ago

NEW YORK (Reuters) - New Yorkers living in low-lying areas should think about moving out on Friday before Hurricane Irene hits the city of 8.4 million people, Mayor Michael Bloomberg said on Thursday.

The mass transit system might have to be shut down on Saturday, making it difficult for residents to leave if they wait, Bloomberg said at a televised news conference.

Hurricane Irene, raging up from the Caribbean toward the U.S. east coast, is expected to hit New York on Sunday with winds of up to 95 miles an hour. Public transport in New York, home to Wall Street, Broadway theaters and thousands of businesses, might have to be shut through Monday.

Bloomberg made it clear people in coastal areas such as Battery Park City on Manhattan's southern tip, Coney Island and the Rockaways should not linger until he issues an evacuation order because that could endanger emergency workers.

Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly promised an increased police presence in evacuated neighborhoods to deter looting.

Bloomberg said he would decide by 8 a.m. on Saturday on whether to order about a quarter of a million coastal residents to evacuate. City shelters will open by 4 p.m. on Friday, he said.

To keep traffic flowing, public permits for events such as fairs and block parties were revoked for Sunday. Permits in coastal "Zone A" areas were canceled for Saturday.

Governor Andrew Cuomo declared a state of emergency on Thursday, which helps New York state tap aid from the federal government.

SUBWAYS MAY BE HALTED

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which runs New York's buses, subways and suburban commuter rail lines, could remain shut through sometime on Monday, Bloomberg said, advising employers to prepare. New York's mass transit system is the largest in the United States, serving 8 million people a day. The subways might have to be shut because surging sea water could damage equipment. Commuter railroads face flooding and strong winds that might knock down their power lines.

MTA Chairman Jay Walder said the mass transit system must shut if winds top 39 mph. "It takes us a minimum of eight hours to shut the system down," he said.

Some Long Island service already was being modified. "The Hamptons special trains for tomorrow are canceled," Walder said.

The MTA also runs major city bridges and tunnels. Whether bridges must be closed will be decided on a case-by-case basis, Walder said.

Nursing homes, hospitals and senior citizens' centers in the low-lying areas must evacuate -- unless the city and state give them permission to stay -- by Friday night. "For those who are homebound and not as mobile as we would like (them) to be, we would strongly urge that they move tomorrow," Bloomberg said.

http://news.yahoo.com/nyc-mayor-coastal-residents-move-friday-002314790.html

[Jolie Rouge]

Get Real: Hurricane Irene Should Be Renamed "Hurricane Hype"
By Patrick Michaels | Forbes – 2 hrs 24 mins ago

Over the years the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has employed the world’s best experts on Atlantic tropical cyclones, from “Dr. Bob” Simpson, to the mediagenic Neil Frank and on to the current director, Bill Read.

The lifesaver-in-chief was probably Frank, who indefatigably crisscrossed the nation educating the public to the dangers—hidden and obvious—that accompany these curiously seductive weather systems. His era was one of many innovations, including extensive use of satellites, and tailoring the “names” of storms to the culture where they roam in order to attract attention.

One of Frank’s nightmare scenarios goes like this: A strong hurricane threatens a heavily-populated resort area with few escape routes, such as the North Carolina Outer Banks. Vacationers reluctantly abandon their $20,000/week palaces on Pine Island for 36 hours in an immobile SUV conga line, drenching tropical showers, and no toilets. The storm falls apart or unexpectedly turns away from land. Lotsa folks rent for more than a week, so they return, an equally strong storm shows up, and they don’t leave. The title of this movie is “how to die in a 10,000 square foot house-boat”.

We have just lived through something pretty close to this nightmare. Last April 27, in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, 41 died because they disregarded a weather warning.

While the number of strong tornadoes is hardly changing (there may even be a slight decline), the number of tornado warnings has increased exponentially as Doppler radar picks up twisting circulations embedded in thunderstorms that could produce a ground tornado.

The number of false positives has so cheapened the currency of tornado warnings that few now bother to interrupt their work when one is given. While the very good forecasters at the National Weather Service were not at all happy when veteran TV meteorologist James Spann blamed a large number of Tuscaloosa deaths on the very high false alarm rates, he had a point.

Now on to Hurricane Irene:

Up until now (Friday evening) Irene has been very similar to 1985 hurricane Gloria, though a bit weaker. But the level of hype—because of its projected path near all of the I-95 major cities—is similar to that of 26 years ago.

See the track here.

When Gloria didn’t kill enough people to suit CBS’s Dan Rather—a serial hurricane hyper who made his career on 1961 Hurricane Carla—he yelled at poor Neil Frank on live TV.


What had happened is that the night before landfall, Gloria took a sudden 40-mile jog to the east. The cyclone slid harmlessly east of the big cities, showing her weaker western side instead of the destructive northeast corner.

Irene has put on a remarkably similar show. Within the limits of forecasting error, Irene’s projected path makes it was impossible to rule out a major disaster. But, as a dangerous Category 3 storm within two days of land, something similar to what happened to Gloria occurred. Instead of going slightly off course, the power of her winds dropped markedly, at least as measured by hurricane hunter aircraft. Because it is prudent to not respond to every little tropical cyclone twitch (such as Gloria’s jog or Thursday’s wind drop), the Thursday evening forecast was virtually unchanged, the Internet went thermonuclear, and the Weather Channel’s advertising rates skyrocketed. From that point on, it became all Irene, all the time. With this level of noise, the political process has to respond with full mobilization. Hype begets hype.

A day later, the smart money is still riding a very Gloria-like track, but with a cyclone that will be weaker than projected. It is doubtful that Irene will even cough up eight bodies (the number killed by Gloria), though power outages east of where the center makes landfall (probably on Long Island) may be extensive.

As I complete this, there’s another tropical depression out in the Atlantic, and a couple more on the way in the very near future. Suppose one of these takes a similar path, except that it improbably threads the needle of the Mid-Atlantic Bight and makes landfall immediately to the west of New York City as a Category 3 storm. How many people will the hyping of Irene have killed?

That’s how Hurricane Hype followed by Hurricane Insanity leads to hurricane death.

I see a solution, in all places, in Washington DC, where a group of crackerjack weather forecasters, led Jason Samenow, have set up the Capital Weather Gang (www.capitalweathergang.com). It’s become the go-to group for potentially severe winter storms here (including hurricanes), and, because they are serving a smaller community than, say, NHC, they aren’t under the massive scrutiny of a politicized media. Is it time for similar diversity to develop all over the high-stakes world of tropical cyclones?

Or would that be an abject disaster? Consider if there are five competing hurricane forecasters, four suggesting evacuation while the fifth says “stay put”, and the fifth one is wrong. Surely most people would choose to stay, with disastrous results. Given the nature of the Internet, such an experiment is sure to run in the near future.

http://news.yahoo.com/real-hurricane-irene-renamed-hurricane-hype-021402485.html

[Jolie Rouge]

Hurricane Irene: How bad will it be?
The Week – 11 hrs ago

The East Coast is bracing for the most powerful storm to hit its shores in decades. Here's what you need to know

Hurricane hysteria is in full force. As news outlets across the country have been extensively reporting for days, Hurricane Irene is barreling toward the East Coast, and is expected to cause extensive damage from North Carolina all the way up through Massachusetts and New England. Irene will reach the North Carolina coast on Saturday before taking "dead aim at New York City" on Sunday, says the Daily News. Currently, Irene ranks in the "top 50 most intense hurricanes ever observed in the Atlantic basin," according to The Wall Street Journal. Just how bad might the storm be? Here, seven things to expect:

1. Severe weather conditions : Irene was originally predicted to hit the East Coast as a Category 3 hurricane, but has been downgraded to a Category 2. But don't rest easy yet — winds up to 105 mph are still expected. The Northeast corridor can expect up to 10 inches of rain, warns Bill Read at the National Hurricane Center. Since the ground is already saturated from recent rainfall, that could mean flash floods. Twenty-foot storm surges on the banks of New York City's rivers are possible, "JFK airport could be swamped," and a surge on Long Island Sound could breach sea walls protecting LaGuardia Airport, says Dr. Jeff Masters at Weather Underground. FEMA warns that East Coast flooding could be as severe as Hurricane Katrina's.

2. Mass evacuations : With 50 million people potentially in Hurricane Irene's path, many states are advising residents in the line of the storm to evacuate. In North Carolina, 200,000 tourists and residents have already evacuated. The state's governor is urging 3.5 million other residents to get out of the storm's path, too. New Jersey has ordered 750,000 people out of its Cape May area. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg ordered the first mandatory evacuations in the Big Apple's history, affecting low-lying sections of the city in all five boroughs.

3. Transit shutdowns : New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo says that New York City's sprawling subway and bus system will shut down beginning at noon Saturday. Air travel will also likely be a nightmare. On Friday afternoon, JetBlue became the first major airline to announce major cancellations, according to Bloomberg, scrapping 882 flights scheduled for Saturday and Sunday. The Northeast is "the busiest airspace in the U.S.," and a total of seven major airports in New York City, Boston, Washington, and Philadelphia are expected to either entirely or partially shut down. Amtrak trains linking New York and Charlotte, N.C., have also been canceled.

4. Entertainment postponed : Major League Baseball, the Women's Tennis Association, the NFL, and Major League Soccer have all rescheduled games and matches in order to accommodate the storm, reports ESPN. In Atlantic City, most casinos plan "to stop rolling the dice and turn off slot machines" by 8 p.m. Friday night, says James Barron at The New York Times. The highly-anticipated dedication of the Martin Luther King, Jr. Memorial in Washington, D.C., was also canceled. But as of Friday afternoon, Playbill maintained that on Broadway, at least, the show must go on.

5. Widespread power outages : Downed power lines and widespread outages are expected all along the Eastern seaboard, says Jerry A. Dicolo and Rebecca Smith at The Wall Street Journal. Recent heavy rainfall could make matters worse, as trees are more likely to be uprooted by strong winds, "both adding to downed lines and slowing restoration efforts." ConEd, which supplies power to much of New York City, is worried that flooding could delay workers from restoring power. Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley is warning residents that power could be out for up to 72 hours.

6. Record-setting damages : This could be a "multibillion-dollar catastrophe," says Nate Silver at The New York Times. Judging from the damage caused by previous hurricanes that have hit the Northeast, a storm with wind speeds of 100 mph could cause $35 billion in damage if it passes directly over Manhattan. This would rank Irene among the costliest natural disasters of all time.

7. Widespread panic : The National Hurricane Center made the switch from three-day forecasts to five-day forecasts ten years go, says Ryan Naquin at Carolina Live. This "gives us more time to prepare but also gives us more time to worry." Indeed, says Adrain Chen at Gawker. Doomsday forecasts have turned into a "dire weather prediction geek-off" that has sent many residents in the path of the storm into a panic. But, as a paternal President Obama cautioned in an address Friday afternoon, "We all hope for the best, but we have to be prepared for the worst."

http://news.yahoo.com/hurricane-irene-bad-174400850.html

[Jolie Rouge]

Waves from Hurricane Irene sweep eight off Florida jetty
By Liz Goodwin National Affairs Reporter | The Lookout – 12 hrs ago

As Hurricane Irene makes it way toward North Carolina, where it's expected to make landfall early Saturday morning, video footage of the storm is beginning to surface.

The storm weakened to a Category 2 as it reached Florida's waters, the Associated Press reported, but it could pick up steam again.

The video below appears to show the first injuries from the storm, as eight people were swept off a jetty near West Palm Beach by giant waves. According to the Palm Beach Post, one of the eight is in a hospital in serious condition. The waves crashed over people in Boynton Beach, Florida, who ventured out to a jetty to watch the storm.

Orlando WESH 2 News meteorologist Dan Billow was also hit by a rogue wave while trying to report on erosion caused by the storm. "It almost took me out of here," he says.

Video shows Irene blasting the Bahamas. According to CBS, there have been no reports of major injuries from the storm yet, which passed the islands this morning. But up to 90 percent of homes on two sparsely populated islands, called Acklins and Crooked, are severely damaged. Winds were up to 120 miles per hour.


http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/wave-hurricane-irene-sweeps-eight-off-florida-jetty-164248243.html

Our state is telling people who decide to ignore the mandatory evacuations and warnings that 911 will NOT respond to calls for help! They need to tell everyone this including these dumb a**'s. I don't wish death on anyone but if you choose to look death in the face as an adrenalin rush, then do so at your own risk!!

~~

I don't wish death on any individual but how do you mourn stupidity. Federal and State governments have warned, and ACTED, to prevent loss of life and these idiots are standing on a jetty in a hurricane????????? Then they want the rest of America to shed tears over their deaths.

[Jolie Rouge]

Flood worries and some relief in Irene's wake
By BETH FOUHY - SAMANTHA GROSS - Associated Press – 2 mins 18 secs ago

NEW YORK (AP) — Stripped of hurricane rank, Tropical Storm Irene spent the last of its fury Sunday, leaving treacherous flooding and millions without power — but an unfazed New York and relief that it was nothing like the nightmare authorities feared.

Slowly, the East Coast surveyed the damage — up to $7 billion by one private estimate — but for many the danger had not passed.

Rivers and creeks turned into raging torrents tumbling with limbs and parts of buildings in northern New England and upstate New York.

Flooding was widespread in Vermont, and hundreds of people were told to leave the capital, Montpelier, which could get flooded twice: once by Irene and once by a utility trying to save an overwhelmed dam.

"This is not over," President Barack Obama said from the Rose Garden.

Meanwhile, the nation's most populous region looked to a new week and the arduous process of getting back to normal.

New York lifted its evacuation order for 370,000 people and said subway service, shut down for the first time by a natural disaster, will be partially restored Monday, though it warned riders to expect long lines and long waits. Philadelphia restarted its trains and buses.

"All in all," New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg said, "we are in pretty good shape."

At least 21 people died in the storm, most of them when trees crashed through roofs or onto cars.

The main New York power company, Consolidated Edison, didn't have to go through with a plan to cut electricity to lower Manhattan to protect its equipment. Engineers had worried that salty seawater would damage the wiring.

And two pillars of the neighborhood came through the storm just fine: The New York Stock Exchange said it would be open for business on Monday, and the Sept. 11 memorial at the World Trade Center site didn't lose a single tree.

The center of Irene passed over Central Park at midmorning with the storm packing 65 mph winds. By evening, with its giant figure-six shape brushing over New England and drifting east, it was down to 50 mph. It was expected to drop below tropical storm strength — 39 mph — before midnight, and was to drift into Canada later Sunday or early Monday.

"Just another storm," said Scott Beller, who was at a Lowe's hardware store in the Long Island hamlet of Centereach, looking for a generator because his power was out.

The Northeast was spared the urban nightmare some had worried about — crippled infrastructure, stranded people and windows blown out of skyscrapers. Early assessments showed "it wasn't as bad as we thought it would be," New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said.

Later in the day, the extent of the damage became clearer. Flood waters were rising across New Jersey, closing side streets and major highways including the New Jersey Turnpike and Interstate 295. In Essex County, authorities used a five-ton truck to ferry people away from their homes as the Passaic River neared its expected crest Sunday night.

Twenty homes on Long Island Sound in Connecticut were destroyed by churning surf. The torrential rain chased hundreds of people in upstate New York from their homes and washed out 137 miles of the state's main highway.

In Massachusetts, the National Guard had to help people evacuate. The ski resort town of Wilmington, Vt., was flooded, but nobody could get to it because both state roads leading there were underwater.

"This is the worst I've ever seen in Vermont," said Mike O'Neil, the state emergency management director.

Rivers roared in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. In the Hudson Valley town of New Paltz, N.Y., so many people were gathering to watch a rising river that authorities banned alcohol sales and ordered people inside. And in Rhode Island, which has a geography thick with bays, inlets and shoreline, authorities were worried about coastal flooding at evening high tide.

The entire Northeast has been drenched this summer with what has seemed like relentless rain, saturating the ground and raising the risk of flooding, even after the storm passes altogether.

The storm system knocked out power for 4½ million people along the Eastern Seaboard. Power companies were picking through uprooted trees and reconnecting lines in the South and had restored electricity to hundreds of thousands of people by Sunday afternoon.

Under its first hurricane warning in a quarter-century, New York took extraordinary precautions. There were sandbags on Wall Street, tarps over subway grates and plywood on storefront windows.

The subway stopped rolling. Broadway and baseball were canceled.

With the worst of the storm over, hurricane experts assessed the preparations and concluded that, far from hyping the danger, authorities had done the right thing by being cautious.

Max Mayfield, former director of the National Hurricane Center, called it a textbook case.

"They knew they had to get people out early," he said. "I think absolutely lives were saved."

Mayfield credited government officials — but also the meteorologists. Days before the storm ever touched American land, forecast models showed it passing more or less across New York City.

"I think the forecast itself was very good, and I think the preparations were also good," said Keith Seitter, director of the American Meteorological Society. "If this exact same storm had happened without the preparations that everyone had taken, there would have been pretty severe consequences."

In the storm's wake, hundreds of thousands of passengers still had to get where they were going. Airlines said about 9,000 flights were canceled.

Officials said the three major New York-area airports will resume most flights Monday morning. Philadelphia International Airport reopened Sunday afternoon, and flights resumed around Washington, which took a glancing blow from the storm.

In the South, authorities still were not sure how much damage had been done. North Carolina Gov. Beverly Perdue said some parts of her state were unreachable. TV footage showed downed trees, toppled utility poles and power lines and mangled awnings.

Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell had initially warned that Irene could be a "catastrophic" monster with record storm surges of up to 8 feet. But the mayor Virginia Beach, Va., suggested on Twitter that the damage was not as bad as feared, as did the mayor of Ocean City, Md.

One of two nuclear reactors at Calvert Cliffs, Md., automatically went offline because of high winds. Constellation Energy Nuclear Group said the plant was safe.

In New York, some cabs were up to their wheel wells in water, and water rushed over a marina near the New York Mercantile Exchange, where gold and oil are traded. But the flooding was not extensive.

"Whether we dodged a bullet or you look at it and said, 'God smiled on us,' the bottom line is, I'm happy to report, there do not appear to be any deaths attributable to the storm," Bloomberg said.

New York officials could not pinpoint when the trains would run again but warned that the Monday commute would be rough. The New York subway carries 5 million riders on an average weekday.

The casinos of Atlantic City, N.J., planned to reopen Monday at noon after state officials checked the integrity of the games, made sure the surveillance cameras work, and brought cash back into the cages under state supervision. All 11 casinos shut down for the storm, only the third time that has happened.

In Philadelphia, the mayor lifted the city's first state of emergency since 1986. The storm was blamed for the collapses of seven buildings, but no one was hurt and everyone was accounted for. People kept their eyes on the rivers. The Schuylkill was expected to reach 15 feet.

The 21 deaths attributed to the storm included six in North Carolina, four in Virginia, four in Pennsylvania, two in New York, two in rough surf in Florida and one each in Connecticut, Maryland and New Jersey.

In an early estimate, consulting firm Kinetic Analysis Corp. figured total losses from the storm at $7 billion, with insured losses of $2 billion to $3 billion. The storm will take a bite out of Labor Day tourist business from the Outer Banks to the Jersey Shore to Cape Cod.

Irene was the first hurricane to make landfall in the continental United States since 2008, and came almost six years to the day after Katrina ravaged New Orleans on Aug. 29, 2005.

As the East Coast cleans up, it can't afford to get too comfortable. Off the coast of Africa is a batch of clouds that computer models say will probably threaten the East Coast 10 days from now, Mayfield said. The hurricane center gave it a 40 percent chance of becoming a named storm over the next two days. "Folks on the East Coast are going to get very nervous again," Mayfield said.

http://news.yahoo.com/flood-worries-relief-irenes-wake-215214930.html

[Jolie Rouge]

Tropical Storm Jose` forms near Bermuda
By Tom Brown | Reuters – 8 hrs ago

MIAMI (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Jose formed near Bermuda on Sunday, becoming the 10th named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, U.S. forecasters said.

At 2 p.m. EDT, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said Jose was 60 miles west of Bermuda and churning northward over the central Atlantic Ocean. It posed no threat to the U.S. coast or to energy interests in the Gulf of Mexico.

The storm was packing top sustained winds of 40 mph and little change in strength was expected over the next 24 hours, the hurricane center said.

It said stiff winds were buffeting Bermuda, where Jose was expected to dump up to 3 inches of rain. But the storm was forecast to lose strength on Monday before dissipating as it takes a projected north-northeast track further out to sea.

Jose formed near the British territory on Sunday morning as Hurricane Irene, the first hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic season, hit New York after swirling up the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina, where it made landfall on Saturday.

Irene has since been downgraded to a tropical storm.

Weather watchers were also keeping an eye on Sunday on a cluster of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave south of Cape Verde off West Africa.

In an updated forecast on Sunday afternoon, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said the system had a "high chance" of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. If the system becomes a tropical storm it will be named Katia.

http://news.yahoo.com/tropical-storm-jose-forms-near-bermuda-national-hurricane-123753166.html


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/overview_atl/refresh/atl_overview+gif/1314585965.gif

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM IRENE...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH OF ST. JOHNSBURY VERMONT...AND ON TROPICAL STORM JOSE...LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 T0 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...IS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON JOSE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.

FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON JOSE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

[Jolie Rouge]

On this 6th anniversary of Katrina's landfall in Louisiana, we could have 2011's 'K' storm before the day is up. Tropical Depression #12 formed in the eastern Atlantic this morning. If upgraded, it would be named Tropical Storm Katia. Coincidentally, Katia was the name chosen to replace Katrina after it was retired in 2005. Check out our Interactive Hurricane Tracker for more: http://www.wafb.com/link/483613/hurrica


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/refresh/danger_atl_latestBW_sm2+gif/143428123_sm.gif

[Jolie Rouge]

By The Associated Press | AP – 9 hrs ago

Hurricane Irene has led to the deaths of at least 40 people in 11 states. The total is derived from state and local law enforcement agencies, emergency officials and family members:

CONNECTICUT: 2

— In Prospect, 89-year-old Charlotte Levine was killed early Sunday when a falling tree limb pulled power lines onto her house and started a fire.

— In Bristol, 46-year-old Shane Seaver died after he and another man went canoeing down a flooded street and the canoe capsized. Seaver's body washed ashore late Sunday in Plainville.

DELAWARE: 2

— In Hockessin, police found the bodies of two men who had sent a text message to a friend saying they were running through Irene during the height of the storm.

FLORIDA: 2

— In Volusia County, 55-year-old Frederick Fernandez died Saturday off New Smyrna Beach after he was tossed off his board by massive waves caused by Irene.

— In Flagler County, 55-year-old tourist James Palmer of New Jersey died Saturday in rough surf.

MARYLAND: 1

— In Queen Anne's County, Md., 85-year-old Anne Bell was killed when a tree knocked a chimney through the glass roof of the sunroom where she was sitting.

MASSACHUSETTS: 1

— In Southbridge, 52-year-old public works employee Richard Gorgone was electrocuted Monday when he touched a railing on his front porch that was electrified by downed power lines.

NEW JERSEY: 6

— Michael Kenwood, an emergency medical technician, died of injuries after being knocked over by floodwaters in Princeton.

— Celena Sylvestri, 20, of Quinton called her boyfriend and then 911 early Sunday seeking help getting out of her flooded car in Pilesgrove. Her body was found eight hours later in the vehicle, about 150 feet off the road.

— The body of Ronald Dawkins, a 47-year-old postal worker, was found after he abandoned his partially submerged vehicle Sunday and stepped into a hidden drainage creek.

— Scott Palecek, 39, was walking in Wanaque when a pipe broke loose and swept him away in floodwaters Sunday.

— The body of Jorge Hernandez, 25, of Point Pleasant Beach was found Monday in a Manasquan River inlet jetty.

— The body of another man was found in Manasquan River inlet in Point Pleasant Beach on Monday. His identity was not immediately determined.

NEW YORK: 8

— Rozalia Gluck, 82, of Brooklyn drowned in a cottage in the Catskills community of Fleischmanns that was swamped by floodwaters.

— A man in his 50s was electrocuted in Spring Valley when he tried to help a child who had gone into a flooded street with downed wires.

— Sharon Stein, 68, drowned in a creek as she and her husband were evacuating their New Scotland home Sunday.

— 68-year-old Joseph Rocco of East Islip drowned while windsurfing in Bellport Bay.

— A man died after his inflatable boat capsized on the Croton River.

— The body of 68-year-old Jose Sierra of the Bronx was pulled out of the water at a marina Sunday afternoon.

— The bodies of 23-year-old Mikita Fox and Danine Swamp were pulled from a river in Altona after their vehicle plunged into the water while crossing a storm-damaged bridge.

NORTH CAROLINA: 6

— Katherine Morales Cruz, 15, of Manassas Park, Va., died Saturday in a two-car collision at an intersection where Hurricane Irene had knocked out power to the traffic lights.

— Ricky Webb, 63, who lived on a farm near Nashville, was killed after a tree limb fell on him when he went outside to feed his horse Saturday.

— Tim *****, 50, was found sitting in a chair facing the television after strong winds toppled a tree onto his Ayden home.

— Jose Manuel Farabia Corona, 21, of Dover died in a Pitt County traffic accident after his SUV went off a road and twice slammed into trees Saturday as Irene's began to make landfall.

— Sabrina Anne Jones, 26, of Clinton died when a tree fell on a car carrying her, her husband and their young daughter Saturday in Sampson County.

— Deputies recovered the body of Melton Robinson Jr., who had been missing since falling or jumping into the Cape Fear River as storms reached North Carolina.

PENNSYLVANIA: 5

— Michael Scerarko, 44, was killed Sunday when a tree fell on him in his yard.

— A 58-year-old Harrisburg man was killed Sunday when a tree toppled onto his tent.

— A man in a camper was crushed by a tree in northeastern Pennsylvania's Luzerne County.

— A motorist was killed on the Pennsylvania Turnpike when he lost control of his car during the storm in Carbon County, skidded over an embankment and hit a tree.

— The body of 64-year-old Patricia O'Neill of East Norriton was discovered Sunday in the Wissahickon Creek, about a half-mile from where her car was found in the flooded waterway.

VERMONT: 3

— The body of Rutland Water Treatment Plant Supervisor Michael Joseph Garofano was recovered Monday, a day after he was checking on a water system intake in Mendon. His 24-year-old son, Michael Gregory Garofano, was still missing.

— A body recovered from the Deerfield River is believed to be that of a woman who fell in while watching flooding in Wilmington.

— Police said another man was found dead in Lake Rescue in Ludlow.

VIRGINIA: 4

— 11-year-old Zahir Robinson was killed when a tree crashed through his apartment.

— 67-year-old James Blackwell of Brodnax was killed when a tree fell across a car Saturday in Brunswick County.

— A man died at a Hopewell hospital Saturday after a tree fell on a house he was in.

— 57-year-old William P. Washington of King William County was killed when a tree fell on him as he was cutting another tree Saturday night.

http://news.yahoo.com/hurricane-irene-blamed-least-40-deaths-024746952.html

[Jolie Rouge]

TROPICAL STORM KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
500 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2011

NEW TROPICAL STORM MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...11.8N 31.7W
ABOUT 535 MI...855 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS : THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK : AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.7 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND KATIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/300845.shtml?

[Jolie Rouge]

Better safe than sorry
The Week – 7 hrs ago

Political leaders and news organizations have been unfairly pilloried for hyping the dangers of Irene. Really now — should they have ignored the threat instead?

Did the media and the government oversell the dangers of Hurricane Irene?

Almost as soon as the winds in New York City began to slow, the media began turning a critical eye on the hyperbole surrounding the storm. Before it made landfall, federal and state governments warned of disaster from North Carolina to the top of the Atlantic seaboard. When, thankfully, the storm turned out to be weaker than predicted — much weaker than some predictions — the natural response was to criticize those who set off the alarms in the first place.

For instance, media critic Howard Kurtz of The Daily Beast blasted cable news networks that were "utterly swept away by the notion that Irene would turn out to be Armageddon. … But the apocalypse that cable television had been trumpeting had failed to materialize. And at 9 a.m., you could almost hear the air come out of the media's hot-air balloon of constant coverage when Hurricane Irene was downgraded to a tropical storm." The New Jersey Star-Ledger noted in its Sunday evening coverage that Irene mainly provided "great photo opps for politicians like New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg." George Will called Irene's media coverage "manufactured hysteria."

The storm was bad enough to kill dozens of people across 11 states. Without the warnings and the hyperbole, would the death toll have gone higher?

There is a legitimate concern about the danger of hyperbole in crisis-management situations. If every storm that approaches an American shore gets billed as another Katrina — a comparison often heard over the past week — the people who warnings are intended to help will start disregarding them. We saw the reluctance of residents in Irene's path to follow evacuation requests; if they hear dire warnings of disasters that fail to materialize, then compliance with safety measures and evacuation orders will decrease, and put people at more risk. Hyperbolic estimates of damage and lack of essential services can also prompt unnecessary hoarding and artificial shortages of water and food that will end up making those goods both more expensive and less available even after an event-free storm.

Fortunately, the damage done by Irene came is far less than predicted — but the damage is not insignificant. Initial estimates of economic value lost have come to $7 billion, and that may go up as flooding continues in some areas. More significantly, at least 40 people died in the storm — as far south as Florida and as far west as Pennsylvania. The victims include an 89-year-old Connecticut woman who died when downed power lines set her home on fire, a New Jersey EMT who died in a Princeton flood, and a middle-aged New York man who had tried to rescue a child in a flood and got electrocuted by power lines.

Clearly, this was not a "manufactured" event. Irene may not have packed the punch that many predicted, but for those families and communities across 11 states who have to bury their dead and repair their homes, it wasn't merely a photo opportunity. It was a real disaster, even if its scope was much more limited than initially feared.


Furthermore, we have a "dog that didn't bark" dimension to this story. The storm was bad enough to kill dozens of people across 11 states. Without the warnings and the hyperbole, would the death toll have gone higher? None of the deaths appear to have resulted from excess zeal to seek safety or shelter. In fact, a number of them came from people who continued their recreational activities despite the storm. How many more were convinced to stay home instead?

A significant amount of criticism has been directed at political leaders for supposed grandstanding during the storm — including Bloomberg, Christie, and President Barack Obama. However, that ignores a couple of political realities. Had these leaders not taken the storm seriously and it turned out worse — or with the 38 deaths, perhaps even turned out as it did — the same critics would be pillorying them for a lack of leadership. The lessons of Katrina don't just apply to the nuts and bolts of emergency response, after all, but also to political leadership and the perceptions of crisis management.

As far as these leaders taking advantage of "photo opps" and television moments, that's almost a given for governors and presidents of any political party. We expect executives to publicly demonstrate leadership, especially in crisis situations. They generally don't reap political benefit from simply meeting expectations — they have much more risk of political damage if they fail to do so, which is why governments will usually err on the side of over-warning. Two months from now, nobody's appraisal of these three politicians' leadership skills will have anything to do with Irene.

Hurricanes are notoriously hard to predict — in origination, path, and impact. Given all the variables in play with Irene and its eventual deadly impact, it's difficult to argue that the media and government overreacted to it. Perhaps we should just be grateful that it didn't turn out as bad as predicted and leave it at that.

http://news.yahoo.com/better-safe-sorry-100500728.html