Romans gripped by fear of quake forecast for May 11, 2011

[Jolie Rouge]

Gavin Jones – Mon May 9, 9:45 am ET

ROME (Reuters) – If tourists find Rome unusually quiet next Wednesday, the reason will probably be that thousands of locals have left town in fear of a devastating earthquake allegedly forecast for that day by a long-dead seismologist.

For months Italian internet sites, blogs and social networks have been debating the work of Raffaele Bendandi, who claimed to have forecast numerous earthquakes and, according to internet rumors, predicted a "big one" in Rome on May 11.

The national television network RAI has run programs aimed at calming rising panic among Romans. The civil protection agency has issued statements reiterating the official scientific view that earthquakes can't be predicted.

Yet many residents of the Eternal City aren't listening. "I'm going to tell the boss I've got a medical appointment and take the day off," barman Fabio Mengarelli told Reuters. "If I have to die I want to die with my wife and kids, and masses of people will do the same as me."

Chef Tania Cotorobai also said she would be taking a day off in the country. "I don't know if I really believe it but if you look at the internet you see everything and the opposite of everything, and it end up making you nervous," she said.

Memories are still vivid of the 2009 earthquake in L'Aquila, which killed more than 300 people and was also felt in Rome. On that occasion controversy also swirled around a scientist, Giampaolo Giuliani, who in the preceding days tried to warn the local population of an imminent quake -- though officials say he was wrong about its precise location.

Bendandi, who died in 1979 aged 86, believed earthquakes were the result of the combined movements of the planets, the moon and the sun and were perfectly predictable.

In 1923 he forecast a quake would hit the central Adriatic region of the Marches on January 2 the following year. He was wrong by two days but Italy's main newspaper Corriere della Sera still ran a front page article on "The man who forecasts earthquakes."

Bendandi's fame grew and in 1927 he was awarded a knighthood by Fascist dictator Benito Mussolini. During his long career his theories were studied by several prominent foreign astronomers.

However the current panic appears to be due more to fear-mongering in the age of internet than to Bendandi himself.

Paola Lagorio, the president of an association dedicated to Bendandi and which preserves all his manuscripts, says they make no reference to any earthquake around Rome in 2011.

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[Jolie Rouge]

2 earthquakes in Spain kill 10, injure dozens
Jorge Sainz, Associated Press – 19 mins ago

MADRID – Two earthquakes struck southeast Spain in quick succession Wednesday, killing at least 10 people, injuring dozens and causing major damage to buildings, officials said.

The epicenter of the quakes — with magnitudes of 4.4 and 5.2 — was close to the town of Lorca, and the second came about two hours after the first, an official with the Murcia regional government said on condition of anonymity in line with department policy.

The Murcia regional government said a hospital in Lorca was being evacuated, dozens of injured people were being treated at the scene and a field hospital was being set up.

The Spanish prime minister's office put the death toll at 10 and the Murcia regional administration said the deaths included a minor and occurred with the second, stronger quake.

Large chunks of stone and brick fell from the facade of a church in Lorca as a reporter for Spanish state TV was broadcasting live from the scene. A large church bell was also among the rubble, which missed striking the reporter, who appeared to be about 30 feet (9 meters) away when it fell. The broadcaster reported that schoolchildren usually gather at that spot around that time, and if it had happened 10 minutes later, a "tragedy" could have occurred.

Spanish TV showed images of cars that were partially crushed by falling rubble, and large cracks in buildings. Nervous groups of residents gathered in open public places, talking about what happened and calling relatives and friends on their cell phones. An elderly woman appeared to be in shock and was seated in a chair as people tried to calm her.

"I felt a tremendously strong movement, followed by a lot of noise, and I was really frightened," the newspaper El Pais quoted another Lorca resident Juani Avellanada as saying. It did not give her age.

Yet another resident, Juana Ruiz, said her house split open with the quake and "all the furniture fell over," according to El Pais.

John Bellini, a seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey's National Earthquake Information Center in Golden, Colorado, said the larger earthquake had a preliminary 5.3 magnitude and struck 220 miles (350 kilometers) south-southeast of Madrid at 6:47 p.m. (1647 GMT, 12:47 p.m. EDT).

The quake was about 6 miles (10 kilometers) deep, and was preceded by the smaller one with a 4.5 magnitude in the same spot, Bellini said. He classified the bigger quake as moderate and said it could cause structural damage to older buildings and masonry.

The quakes occurred in a seismically active area near a large fault beneath the Mediterranean Sea where the European and African continents brush past each other, USGS seismologist Julie Dutton said.

The USGS said it has recorded hundreds of small quakes in the area since 1990.

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