Jolie Rouge
11-02-2008, 03:13 PM
How soon will we know on election night?
November 2, 2008
Answer: Pretty soon, potentially. Via CNN, a rundown of when the polls in various battleground states close (all times ET): http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/poll.closing/
7 p.m. Indiana, Virginia
7:30 p.m. Ohio, North Carolina
8 p.m. Pennsylvania, Florida, Missouri
———————————–
9 p.m. Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, North Dakota
10 p.m. Nevada, Montana
I didn’t include Iowa because it’s not a battleground anymore, assuming it ever was, but that’s also a 10 p.m. close for what it’s worth.
The line is there because none of the states below it matter much unless Maverick’s come close to running the table in the states above it. Play around with CNN’s electoral map and you’ll see what I mean. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/ Give him every last state from 9 p.m. on, then try to figure out how many pre-9 p.m. states he can lose and still reach 270. Unless I missed something, it boils down to this:
1. He can afford to lose any single state above the line, no matter which it is, so long as he wins all the others.
2. He can afford to lose any combination of Indiana, Virginia, and Missouri (but not all three), so long as he wins every other state above the line.
3. Under no circumstances can he afford to lose a combination of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Virginia. Two out of three is a must, plus every other state above the line. McCain currently trails in all three by anywhere from four to seven points, per the RCP state averages.
(Fun fact: Given my assumptions, if Maverick wins Pennsylvania and Virginia, Obama wins Ohio, and they split Indiana and Missouri, it’s 269-269.)
What this means, given The One’s lead, is that each hour on Tuesday night operates almost like an elimination game. If McCain wins Indiana and Virginia, he survives and advances to the next round against Ohio and North Carolina.
If he wins both of those, he moves on to the eastern regional championship in Pennsylvania and Florida. And if he wins both of those, he heads west for the Final Four Six. As I say, he can technically afford to lose one or two states early (depending upon which ones they are), but the bellwether omens will be grim if he’s dropped any battlegrounds before 8 p.m. And again, to win the election he’d almost certainly then have to win all six of those western states. If you believe PPP, not only does The One lead big in Colorado and New Mexico, but a majority of voters have already cast their ballots. Assuming that’s true, McCain’s margin of error above the line is virtually zero.
Needless to say, if both Indiana and Virginia are called for Obama, commence drinking immediately. Here’s the latest battleground snapshot from Mason-Dixon. http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1108/Final_polls_tight_in_key_states_with_Obama_enjoyin g_small_advantage.html
Final polls tight in key states, with Obama enjoying small advantage
The final round of Mason-Dixon polls has Obama enjoying small leads in the red states that would deliver him the presidency, but he's below 50 percent in each and there are enough white undecided voters to leave some too close to call.
Colorado: Obama 49, McCain 44, Undecided 4
Florida: Obama 47, McCain 45, Undecided 7
Nevada: Obama 47, McCain 43, Undecided 8
Pennsylvania: 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9
Virginia: Obama 47, McCain 44, Undecided 9
Ohio: McCain 47, Obama 45, Undecided 6
Missouri: McCain 47, Obama 46, Undecided 5
North Carolina: McCain 49, Obama 46, Undecided 5
As Brad Coker, who runs the Mason-Dixon poll, notes, the vast majority of the undecided voters in these states are whites.
If these undecided voters all break for McCain, it may be enough for him to eke out a small win. But there is another possibility: that some of these undecided voters who can't bring themselves to support a black candidate but are also unhappy with the GOP just stay home.
Every vote counts, swing-staters.
November 2, 2008
Answer: Pretty soon, potentially. Via CNN, a rundown of when the polls in various battleground states close (all times ET): http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/poll.closing/
7 p.m. Indiana, Virginia
7:30 p.m. Ohio, North Carolina
8 p.m. Pennsylvania, Florida, Missouri
———————————–
9 p.m. Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, North Dakota
10 p.m. Nevada, Montana
I didn’t include Iowa because it’s not a battleground anymore, assuming it ever was, but that’s also a 10 p.m. close for what it’s worth.
The line is there because none of the states below it matter much unless Maverick’s come close to running the table in the states above it. Play around with CNN’s electoral map and you’ll see what I mean. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/ Give him every last state from 9 p.m. on, then try to figure out how many pre-9 p.m. states he can lose and still reach 270. Unless I missed something, it boils down to this:
1. He can afford to lose any single state above the line, no matter which it is, so long as he wins all the others.
2. He can afford to lose any combination of Indiana, Virginia, and Missouri (but not all three), so long as he wins every other state above the line.
3. Under no circumstances can he afford to lose a combination of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Virginia. Two out of three is a must, plus every other state above the line. McCain currently trails in all three by anywhere from four to seven points, per the RCP state averages.
(Fun fact: Given my assumptions, if Maverick wins Pennsylvania and Virginia, Obama wins Ohio, and they split Indiana and Missouri, it’s 269-269.)
What this means, given The One’s lead, is that each hour on Tuesday night operates almost like an elimination game. If McCain wins Indiana and Virginia, he survives and advances to the next round against Ohio and North Carolina.
If he wins both of those, he moves on to the eastern regional championship in Pennsylvania and Florida. And if he wins both of those, he heads west for the Final Four Six. As I say, he can technically afford to lose one or two states early (depending upon which ones they are), but the bellwether omens will be grim if he’s dropped any battlegrounds before 8 p.m. And again, to win the election he’d almost certainly then have to win all six of those western states. If you believe PPP, not only does The One lead big in Colorado and New Mexico, but a majority of voters have already cast their ballots. Assuming that’s true, McCain’s margin of error above the line is virtually zero.
Needless to say, if both Indiana and Virginia are called for Obama, commence drinking immediately. Here’s the latest battleground snapshot from Mason-Dixon. http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1108/Final_polls_tight_in_key_states_with_Obama_enjoyin g_small_advantage.html
Final polls tight in key states, with Obama enjoying small advantage
The final round of Mason-Dixon polls has Obama enjoying small leads in the red states that would deliver him the presidency, but he's below 50 percent in each and there are enough white undecided voters to leave some too close to call.
Colorado: Obama 49, McCain 44, Undecided 4
Florida: Obama 47, McCain 45, Undecided 7
Nevada: Obama 47, McCain 43, Undecided 8
Pennsylvania: 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9
Virginia: Obama 47, McCain 44, Undecided 9
Ohio: McCain 47, Obama 45, Undecided 6
Missouri: McCain 47, Obama 46, Undecided 5
North Carolina: McCain 49, Obama 46, Undecided 5
As Brad Coker, who runs the Mason-Dixon poll, notes, the vast majority of the undecided voters in these states are whites.
If these undecided voters all break for McCain, it may be enough for him to eke out a small win. But there is another possibility: that some of these undecided voters who can't bring themselves to support a black candidate but are also unhappy with the GOP just stay home.
Every vote counts, swing-staters.