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Jolie Rouge
05-16-2005, 09:51 AM
BAY ST. LOUIS, Miss. (AP) — The East and Gulf coasts can expect another hurricane season that's worse than average, the head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Monday.
The Atlantic will have 12 to 15 tropical storms, seven to nine of them becoming hurricanes, and three to five of those hurricanes being major, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph, Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr. said, standing in front of a "hurricane hunter" aircraft. "We can't predict this far in advance how many will strike land," he said. But, given the active season, "We would say, 'Be prepared for two or three of these to make landfall.'"

Last year, 12 to 15 named storms were predicted, including six to eight hurricanes, two to four of them classified major. Instead, there were six major hurricanes out of nine hurricanes and 15 named storms.

Forecasters at Colorado State University also predict a significantly above-average Atlantic hurricane season. In April, William Gray and his team said they expect 13 named storms including seven hurricanes, three of them major.

The hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.

Lautenbacher said the eastern and central Pacific are expected to have a lighter-than-normal season. The eastern Pacific can expect 11 to 15 tropical storms, six to eight of them becoming hurricanes, and two to four of them major, Lautenbacher said.

Two or three tropical cyclones are projected for the central Pacific, he said.

The Atlantic seasons were relatively mild from the 1970s through 1994, and all but two since then have been above normal. The world may be just halfway through a 20-year cycle, Lautenbacher said.

Speakers stressed that people need to plan. A recent Mason-Dixon poll of 1,100 people from Texas to Maine found that 47% of them had no hurricane plans, said Max Mayfield, head of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Experience from Florida's four hurricanes last year bears out the need for such plans, he said: "People who had a hurricane plan did much better than those who didn't."

And, as he did at a hurricane conference in New Orleans earlier this year, Mayfield urged people to pay less attention to the black line which forecasters use for the most likely storm track, and more to the area on either side of it on the forecast map.

Despite great strides in predicting landfall over the past 15 years, the average error during the last 24 hours is still 85 miles, Mayfield said. "Those storms can literally turn on a dime," added Mike Brown, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.



http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/2005-05-16-Hurricane-outlook_x.htm?csp=24&RM_Exclude=Juno

schsa
05-16-2005, 01:00 PM
Every year they predict and then change the predictions in June or July. All I know is that it doesn't count until you know it is going to hit land and it's coming towards you.

Njean31
05-16-2005, 02:00 PM
great, i'll be up and down 95 again this year.

Jolie Rouge
05-16-2005, 05:18 PM
Last year, 12 to 15 named storms were predicted, including six to eight hurricanes, two to four of them classified major. Instead, there were six major hurricanes out of nine hurricanes and 15 named storms.

sounds fairly acurate ... exspecially for something as fluid as weather prediction ...

Jolie Rouge
05-19-2005, 07:22 PM
Hurricane Adrian Steams Toward El Salvador
By DIEGO MENDEZ, Associated Press Writer


PUERTO LA LIBERTAD, El Salvador - Salvadoran officials evacuated some 10,000 people and closed schools Thursday as Hurricane Adrian steamed toward the country's coast.

El Salvador and Guatemala declared emergencies as the eastern Pacific's first named tropical storm of the season, gained force and headed directly for the coast, carrying heavy rains that forecasters said could cause devastating flooding.

Forecasters said Adrian was only about 35 miles from the Salvadoran coast, and would likely hit land Thursday night.

In Puerto La Libertad, the beach resort and seafood center closest to El Salvador's capital, San Salvador, streets were nearly deserted as rains sprayed across an increasingly agitated surf and waves pounded at the pier. "You can feel the concern because we have never had anything like this," said Marco Antonio Hernandez, a 40-year-old seafood vendor.

The U.S. State Department warned the storm was expected to cause severe flooding and urged U.S. residents and tourists in Central America to stay alert.

Salvadoran President Tony Saca broadcast an appeal for his citizens to obey evacuation requests.

Authorities evacuated about 10,000 people from low-lying coastal areas near the city of Zacatecoluca, east of La Libertad.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center reported Adrian had grown to hurricane force, with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph. It was moving toward the northeast at about 9 mph, and appeared likely to hit land somewhere between the cities of Acajutla and Zacatecoluca, both south of San Salvador.

The region, where many people live in shacks clinging to sharp ravines, is particularly vulnerable to flooding and landslides. In 1998, Hurricane Mitch, arriving from the Caribbean, killed at least 9,000 people in Central America.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=5&u=/ap/20050520/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/pacific_storm

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On the Web:

U.S. National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


HURRICANE ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU MAY 19 2005

AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA EAST OF SIPICATE TO THE BORDER OF EL SALVADOR AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM SIPICATE WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-MEXICO BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST OR VERY NEAR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR AND ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.

ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/HR) AND A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ADRIAN BE MOVING INLAND OVER EL SALVADOR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND OVER HONDURAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH (140 KM/HR) WITH HIGHER GUSTS...IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER. ADRIAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. ADRIAN WILL WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND.

HAM RADIO REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 81 MPH (130 KM/HR) AT COMALAPA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LOCATED ABOUT 15 MILES (25 KM) SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM)
FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP1+shtml/200241.shtml