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janelle
04-01-2005, 09:28 AM
WEB EXCLUSIVE

By Jennifer Barrett Ozols
Newsweek

Updated: 12:07 p.m. ET April 1, 2005As John Paul II’s health deteriorated, the world’s 1 billion Roman Catholics wondered about who could succeed the third-longest-serving pope in history. Former Vatican diplomat and aide John-Peter Pham, a professor at James Madison University and author of the 2004 book “Heirs of the Fisherman: Behind the Scenes of Papal Death and Succession” (Oxford University Press), has identified some of the leading candidates. NEWSWEEK’s Jennifer Barrett Ozols spoke with Pham about how the next pontiff will be chosen. Excerpts:


NEWSWEEK: The pope made changes to the papal succession procedures. What will that mean if he dies?
John-Peter Pham: The basic tradition of the conclave [the assembly where a papal successor is picked] is to lock the cardinals up in a manner to expedite the election. John Paul II created and built a controversial palace, for all intents and purposes—though they eschew the term—inside the Vatican. It contains 120 suites—just enough for the cardinals—with a study, bedroom, bathroom and thermostat. It’s a much more comfortable and humane way to treat men who are in their 60s and 70s. On the other hand, they don’t have to be in such a hurry.

But John Paul II also changed the voting mechanism. Traditionally, a two-thirds majority is required to elect the pope. But, now, he’s changed the rules so that, essentially, after a little over a week’s time staying at this hotel in relative comfort, if they haven’t elected someone, they can change the rules to elect by simple majority after they have gone through the whole procedure.

How many cardinals will choose the next pope?
There are now 119 electoral cardinals. So someone who gets 60 votes can change the rules. The current pope has appointed all but three of the electors. But this way, a determined majority can elect someone who is not a consensus figure.

Why did the pope make these changes?
He never explained it himself. But there are two possibilities. In a worst-case scenario, the church wouldn’t be without a pope for more than a month, since the conclave opens about 20 days after the pope’s death. Another, more sinister, interpretation is that it is a mechanism to allow more doctrinaire hard-liners to push through someone who would have run aground if they’d had to achieve a two-thirds majority.


Since the pope has appointed almost all the voting cardinals, can we expect more of the same with his successor?
Both popes and cardinals have been surprised by what comes out of a conclave. Because of the nature of the constitution of the church that invests sole and absolute power in one man, once that man is seated in that chair, all bets are off. You can’t, from the grave, control your successor. Conventional wisdom only takes you so far.

What criteria will be used to pick the next pope?
You’ll have to elect someone who is in good health. John Paul has been seen by more human beings than anyone in history, with his travels around the world and his activities. It would be hard to elect someone who didn’t like travel or physically wasn’t able to live up to that regimen. John Paul brought to the papacy an incredible human culture. Whether one agrees or disagrees with his theological convictions, here’s a man with two earned doctorates, a world-class philosopher, a writer on drama and theater. After that standard, it’s hard to go back to someone who is not as intellectual.


You also have to look at languages. The pope is the bishop of Rome. He has to speak Italian. Latin remains the official working language of church law and church doctrine. You can’t get by without speaking English. There’s also a large number of the faithful in Spanish-speaking countries. French is still the diplomatic language of the Vatican diplomacy. And if you want to be in tune with the Catholic or protestant theology of the last 50 years, most of the seminal work is in German. Then they’re going to look for someone with pastoral experience. The period in which a pope can be elected who spent his entire life as a bureaucrat is over.

Who would meet your criteria?
I come down to five people who currently could meet all those criteria. One is Dionigi Tettamanzi, the archbishop of Milan, the largest Catholic diocese in Europe, and he’s a bioethicist by trade … Another is Severino Poletto, the archbishop of Turin, who’s got a lower profile … Angelo Scola is the patriarch of Venice, a city that has given the church a pope three times in the 20th century, and a scholar. Francis Arinze also meets the criteria. He is a Nigerian with a fascinating personal story. His father was a chieftain, and he converted and was baptized at the age of 9. In 2002, he was transferred to head of the office in charge of liturgy and sacraments in Rome … Finally, Christoph Schönborn, who is 60, young by cardinal standards. He’s the only cardinal of electors who is titled aristocracy; he’s related by blood to every European royal family. He’s also a brilliant theologian with great sensitivity to the Christian East, orthodoxy and Eastern bloc Catholics. And he’s the editor of the Catechism of the Catholic Church.

Who’s got the best chance?
It’s very hard to know because none will enter the conclave with a clear-cut majority. A lot will depend on the period between the pope’s death and the opening of the conclave, which is a minimum of 15 days and maximum of 20 days. That was put in place years ago to allow for cardinals from far away who had to race to get there, to accommodate steamship travel. That’s not the case anymore. Within 48 hours [of the pope’s death], almost every elector will be in Rome so they have two to three weeks to visit with one another, informally caucus, and those will be the weeks where it will be decided.

What are the top issues his successor will have to face?
First, the relationship between the worldwide Catholic church, centered in the pope and the Roman quarry on Vatican Hill, and the local churches and dioceses all over the world. Also, there’s the issue of vocations. You have a graying of the clergy. It hasn’t kept up with the increase in population. The ratio of the faithful to the priests has worsened. Also, he must consider the role of laity, especially as the number of priests declines. The subset under that is the role of women. There are issues of conception and contraception. There are questions of divorce and remarriage. Ecumenism. Also, church and state. And there’s the changing face of Catholicism demographically.


What do you see as John Paul II’s legacy?
I’m cautious of calling him John Paul the Great while he is alive, but also don’t agree with those attempts to degrade him. He has a complex history. He’ll have a mixed legacy that we need the time and dispassion to truly assess.

Where does he rank among popes?
He will certainly rank as one of the most influential popes. Whether he makes the cut into the top 10 or top five greatest remains to be seen.

Editor’s Note: This interview was first published on Feb. 25, shortly after the pope underwent a tracheotomy.


© 2004 Newsweek, Inc.