Thread: Disturbance in Gulf of Mexico is almost a tropical storm

DEBBY

By Jane Sutton | Reuters – 2 hrs 27 mins ago.


MIAMI (Reuters) - A weather disturbance in the central Gulf of Mexico was likely to develop into Tropical Storm Debby in the next day or two, forecasters at the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Saturday.

The broad mass of low pressure and heavy thunderstorms had begun to develop a center of circulation about 275 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, the forecasters said.

It would become a tropical storm if those swirling winds reach a sustained speed of 39 miles per hour (63 km per hour), and a buoy had already measured gusts near that level.

"This system has a high chance, 90 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone as it moves slowly northward during the next 48 hours," the forecasters said.

"Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast over the weekend and interests in this area should continue to monitor the progress of this (low-pressure system)."

Forecasting models diverged widely on its potential path. Some took it east over northern Florida while others swung it north toward the Alabama-Mississippi border or west over Texas or Mexico.

Energy companies began shutting in production and evacuating workers from oil and gas platforms on Friday in the Gulf of Mexico, which is home to 20 percent of U.S. oil production and 6 percent of natural gas output.

A hurricane hunter plane was scheduled to check out the disturbance on Saturday. The disturbance has brought heavy rain to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba and southern Florida over the past few days and forecasters said there was a potential for local flooding in those areas.

http://news.yahoo.com/disturbance-gu...144611349.html

Tropical Storm Debby forms in the Gulf
Posted: Jun 23, 2012 4:07 PM CDT Updated: Jun 23, 2012 4:13 PM CDT



MIAMI, FL (AP) - Tropical Storm Debby has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and forecasters say it will bring rain to the Gulf coast from southern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.

Forecasters said Saturday the storm has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (80 kph). A tropical storm warning has been issued for part of the Louisiana coast. The storm is moving north at 6 mph (10 kph). The center of Debby is expected to be moving over the northern Gulf during the next few days.

The National Hurricane Center says this is the first time four tropical storms have been recorded before July 1 during the Atlantic hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851. Alberto was the first storm this year. It formed off the South Carolina coast on May 19.

http://www.wafb.com/story/18863755/t...ed-before-july

All the tracks yesterday had it headed towards the Texas Coast and Mexico... now she is headed for my back door.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH - LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST. DEBBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H BUT LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL KEEP THE CENTER OF DEBBY MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM FROM THE CENTER MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. BALD POINT IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 MPH...84 KM/H.

THE LATEST ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB 29.35 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND - TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE : THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD THROUGH APALACHEE BAY...3 TO 5 FT FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL : DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO THE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND WET SOIL CONDITIONS...THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL EXACERBATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST.

TORNADOES: ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY -- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

http://www.emergencyemail.org/newsem...sp?a=2151&z=34

Originally Posted by Jolie Rouge

All the tracks yesterday had it headed towards the Texas Coast and Mexico... now she is headed for my back door.

Just heard the same thing and thought of you! Don't want anyone to get strong storms, but Texas sure wants some of its rain!

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Tropical Storm Debby strengthens off Gulf
Associated Press – 1 hr 41 mins ago.

MIAMI (AP) — A tropical storm warning was issued Sunday for Alabama to the Florida Panhandle as Debby lashed parts of the Gulf Coast with wind and rain. The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Sunday morning that Debby was about 190 miles (310 km) east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. It said the storm warning has now been issued from the Mississippi-Alabama border eastward to the Suwanee River in north Florida. Debby's top sustained winds had increased to about 60 mph (95 kph). The storm was moving toward the northeast at 6 mph (9 kph).

Although a forecast track was still uncertain, the hurricane center said people from Texas to Florida should remain alert to Debby's movement. At least one tornado linked to the storm touched down Saturday in southwest Florida, but no injuries were reported. Heavy squalls pounded parts of that state.

Forecasters said Debby could reach hurricane strength sometime over the next few days. Meanwhile, up to 10 inches of rain were possible along the coast, with isolated amounts possibly reaching 15 inches. It was the first time four tropical storms have been recorded before July 1 during the Atlantic hurricane season since record keeping began in 1851. Alberto was the first storm this year. It formed off the South Carolina coast on May 19, almost two weeks before the hurricane season officially began June 1.

Debby forced the suspension of 8 percent of the region's oil and gas production. The government reported that nine production platforms and one drilling rig were evacuated. The suspended crude production amounts to about 2 percent of U.S production and about 0.1 percent of global production. The reduced production is not expected to impact oil prices unless the storm strengthens and forces more production platforms to close.

A tropical storm warning was also in effect for part of the southeast Louisiana coast. Officials there have been monitoring the weather closely for the past several days. Some low-lying areas close to the coast flood easily in rough weather. Near the mouth of the Mississippi southeast of New Orleans, Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser said officials were making preparations to protect the main highway from tidal flooding.

A tornado touched down in Collier County in southwest Florida and forecasters warned other twisters were possible. Several homes were damaged and tree limbs were down, smashing atop at least two cars, The Naples Daily News reported. "This is quite common with this type of storm," senior hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart with the National Hurricane Center said of the twisters. "They tend to not be very large or long-lived, which can be difficult to detect on radar. So people need to keep an eye on the sky."

Out in the Gulf, Anadarko Petroleum removed all non-essential personnel and expected to close four facilities in the central and eastern Gulf. Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell and Marathon Oil said non-essential personnel were being removed but production was not being affected. ExxonMobil reported that its operations were unaffected.

http://news.yahoo.com/tropical-storm...--finance.html

comments

It is vitally important that you keep abreast of the situation by turning on your television and watching TV reporters in rain slickers stand right next to the ocean and tell you over and over how vitally important it is for everybody to stay away from the ocean.

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Go Debby! Not because I'm some sort of sicko, but because this thing is forecast to head to Texas and that has the potential of kick starting the monsoon which could mean drought relief for Colorado and New Mexico. So far this month we've had a recorded total .06 inches of rain in the fire areas. That translates to - Nothing.

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I hope your wish comes true. We here on the Alabama Gulf Coast wouldn't want any power outages, food shortages, gas lines, rising gas prices, floating bodies, etc. Those little self heating meals (MRE's) are not to be taken lightly, but I'm over them too. Hope you get the rain you need without any of the bad stuff.

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Imagine what will happen if this storm moves further in to the Gulf toward Texas- wait for it...
this Debby could literally "do Dallas" lol...

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Tropical storms bring much needed rain to Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, New Mexico, and Arizona. Lets hope that Debbie doesn't swerve north up the Atlantic coast.

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from now on "evacuate" for me means ROAD TRIP!!! Last time during Ike I stuck around in the sweltering heat with no ac, waiting 5 hours in line for gas or a bag of ice while eating canned goods for a week. NO MORE. Get a hotel rooom for a week away from the coast and PAR-TEY!!! (misspelling intentional, pronounced with a long a on the end). All other misspellings unintentional.

Note to self: Stock up on Little Debby snack cakes in advance of hurricane

Gotta love big families. Greg went to my mom's to mow her grass in advance of the weather... found my big brother Jeff was already there for the same so... knowing Mark & Matt are not home for another week... Greg came and mowed my yard. Big brothers are the best !