War between Russia and Georgia?

Jolie Rouge

Georgia claims Russians have cut country in half
By DAVID NOWAK, Associated Press Writer
45 minutes ago

GORI, Georgia - Russian forces seized several towns and a military base deep in western Georgia on Monday, opening a second front in the fighting. Georgia's president said his country had been effectively cut in half with the capture of the main east-west highway near Gori.

Fighting also raged Monday around Tskhinvali, the capital of the separatist province of South Ossetia. Russian warplanes launched new air raids across Georgia, with at least one sending screaming civilians running for cover.

The reported capture of the key Georgian city of Gori and the towns of Senaki, Zugdidi and Kurga came despite a top Russian general's claim earlier Monday that Russia had no plans to enter Georgian territory. By taking Gori, which sits on Georgia's only east-west highway, Russia can cut off eastern Georgia from the country's western Black Sea coast.

"(Russian forces) came to the central route and cut off connections between western and eastern Georgia," Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili told a national security meeting.

The news agency Interfax, however, cited a Russian Defense Ministry official as denying Gori was captured. Attempts to reach Gori residents by telephone late Monday did not go through.

Security Council head Alexander Lomaia said Monday it was not immediately clear if Russian forces would advance on Tbilisi, the Georgian capital. But the Russian Defense Ministry denied such intentions, the Interfax and RIA-Novosti news agencies said.

At Georgia's request, U.N. Security Council in New York called an emergency session for later Monday — the fifth meeting on the fighting in as many days.

The two-front battlefield was a major escalation in the conflict that blew up late Thursday after a Georgian offensive to regain control of the separatist province of South Ossetia. Even as Saakashvili signed a cease-fire pledge Monday with EU mediators, Russia flexed its military muscle and appeared determined to subdue the small U.S. ally that has been pressing for NATO membership.

On Monday afternoon, Russian troops invaded Georgia from the western separatist province of Abkhazia while most Georgian forces were busy with fighting in the central region around South Ossetia.

Russian armored personnel carriers moved into Senaki, a town 20 miles inland from Georgia's Black Sea port of Poti, Lomaia said. Russian news agencies late Monday cited the Defense Ministry as saying the troops had left Senaki "after liquidating the danger," but did not give details.

Russian forces also moved into Zugdidi, near Abkhazia, and seized police stations, while their Abkhazian allies took control of the nearby village of Kurga, according to witnesses and Georgian officials.

In Zugdidi, an AP reporter saw five or six Russian soldiers posted outside an Interior Ministry building. Several tanks and other armored vehicles were moving through the town but the streets were nearly deserted, with shops, restaurants and banks all shut down.

In the city of Gori, an AP reporter heard artillery fire and Georgian soldiers warned locals to get out because Russian tanks were approaching. Hundreds of terrified residents fled toward Tbilisi using any means of transport they could find. Many stood along the road trying to flag down passing cars.

An APTV film crew saw Georgian tanks and military vehicles speeding along the road from Gori to Tbilisi. Firing began and people ran for cover. A couple of cars could be seen in flames along the side of the road.

Georgia borders the Black Sea between Turkey and Russia and was ruled by Moscow for most of the two centuries preceding the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union. Both provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia have run their own affairs without international recognition since fighting to split from Georgia in the early 1990s — and both have close ties with Moscow.

Georgia began an offensive to regain control over South Ossetia late Thursday with heavy shelling and air strikes that ravaged South Ossetia's provincial capital of Tskhinvali.

The Russia response was swift and overpowering — thousands of troops that shelled the Georgians until they fled Tskhinvali on Sunday, and four days of bombing raids across Georgia.

Yet Georgia's pledge of a cease-fire rang hollow Monday. An AP reporter saw a small group of Georgian fighters open fire on a column of Russian and Ossetian military vehicles outside Tskhinvali, triggering a 30-minute battle. The Russians later said all the Georgians were killed.

Another AP reporter was in the village of Tkviavi, 7 1/2 miles south of Tskhinvali inside Georgia, when a bomb from a Russian Sukhoi warplane struck a house. The walls of neighboring buildings fell as screaming residents ran for cover. Eighteen people were wounded.

Georgian artillery fire was heard coming from fields about 200 yards away from the village, perhaps the bomber's target.

Hundreds of Georgian troops headed north Monday along the road toward Tskhinvali, pocked with tank regiments creeping up the highway into South Ossetia. Hundreds of other soldiers traveled via trucks in the opposite direction, towing light artillery weapons.

President Bush and other Western leaders have sharply criticized Russia's military response as disproportionate and say Russia appears to want the Georgian government overthrown. They have also complained that Russian warplanes — buzzing over Georgia since Friday — have bombed Georgian oil sites and factories far from the conflict zone.

The world's seven largest economic powers urged Russia to accept an immediate cease-fire Monday and agree to international mediation. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her colleagues from the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations spoke by telephone and pledged their support for a negotiated solution to the conflict.

"I've expressed my grave concern about the disproportionate response of Russia and that we strongly condemn the bombing outside of South Ossetia," Bush told NBC Sports.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin criticized the United States for viewing Georgia as the victim, instead of the aggressor, and for airlifting Georgian troops back home from Iraq on Sunday.

"Of course, Saddam Hussein ought to have been hanged for destroying several Shiite villages," Putin said in Moscow. "And the incumbent Georgian leaders who razed ten Ossetian villages at once, who ran elderly people and children with tanks, who burned civilian alive in their sheds — these leaders must be taken under protection."

The U.S. military was flying Georgian troops back home from Iraq and informed the Russians about the flights ahead of time to avoid mishaps, said one military official said Monday on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak about the subject on the record.

Defense Department spokesman Bryan Whitman said Monday morning that U.S. officials expect to have all Georgian troops out of Iraq by the end of the day.

Pentagon officials said Monday that U.S. military was assessing the fighting every day to determine whether less than 100 U.S. trainers should be pulled out of the country.

There had been about 130 trainers, including a few dozen civilian contractors, but the civilians had been scheduled to rotate out of the country and did so over the weekend, Whitman said. The remaining uniformed trainers were moved the weekend to what officials believe is a safer location, he said.

Whitman said he didn't know whether the civilian trainers were among the 170 that the State Department said it had evacuated.

Saakashvili signed a cease-fire pledge Monday proposed by the French and Finnish foreign ministers. The EU envoys headed to Moscow to try to persuade Russia to accept it.

Saakashvili, however, voiced concern that Russia's true goal was to undermine his pro-Western government. "It's all about the independence and democracy of Georgia," he said.

Saakashvili said Russia has sent 20,000 troops and 500 tanks into Georgia. He said Russian warplanes were bombing roads and bridges, destroying radar systems and targeting Tbilisi's civilian airport. One Russian bombing raid struck the Tbilisi airport area only a half-hour before the EU envoys arrived, he said.

Another hit near key Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, which carries Caspian crude to the West. No supply interruptions have been reported.

Abkhazia's separatists declared Sunday they would push Georgian forces out of the northern part of the Kodori Gorge, the only area of Abkhazia still under Georgian control.

Before invading western Georgia, Russia's deputy chief of General Staff Col.-Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn demanded Monday that Georgia disarm its police in Zugdidi, a town just outside Abkhazia. Still he insisted "We are not planning any offensive."

At least 9,000 Russian troops and 350 armored vehicles were in Abkhazia, according to a Russian military commander.

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said more than 2,000 people have been killed in South Ossetia since Friday, most of them Ossetians with Russian passports. The figures could not be independently confirmed, but refugees who fled Tskhinvali over the weekend said hundreds had been killed.

Many found shelter in the Russian province of North Ossetia.

"The Georgians burned all of our homes," said one elderly woman, as she sat on a bench under a tree with three other white-haired survivors. "The Georgians say it is their land. Where is our land, then?"

__________________
Laissez les bon temps rouler! Going to church doesn't make you a Christian any more than standing in a garage makes you a car.** a 4 day work week & sex slaves ~ I say Tyt for PRESIDENT! Not to be taken internally, literally or seriously ....Suki ebaynni IS THAT BETTER ?

Jolie Rouge

Our view on the Georgia-Russia conflict
Guns of August reveal Putin’s larger ambition
Tue Aug 12, 12:22 AM ET

If there were any lingering doubt about who is leading Russia — and crafting its foreign policy — that has been dispelled in recent days. It's Vladimir Putin. Putin is no longer president (he's now prime minister, supposedly concentrating on domestic issues). But he is clearly directing Russia's escalating war with tiny neighbor Georgia.

That's unsettling, because Putin's aim has long been to restore as much of the territory and influence of the former Soviet Union as possible. He has a habit of using deceptive maneuvers from the playbook of the old KGB, the former Soviet intelligence services that trained him.

And so it is with this war, which took an ominous turn Monday with Russian forces attacking deeper into Georgia and President Bush rightly denouncing the "dramatic and brutal escalation." The tenor of this crisis, and the back and forth between Russia and the United States, has the unmistakable feel of the Cold War. Indeed, for those who recall the arms race, the bellicose rhetoric and the distrust that blanketed both countries for decades, the echoes are clear.

That being that case, the U.S. response is critical. The U.S. has limited military and diplomatic options to help its embattled ally, but failure in Georgia will only embolden a Russia that has now shown the world a new willingness to flex its military muscles. The immediate need is to find a way for all sides to calm down and seek a negotiated path back from the brink. International mediators in Moscow are trying to do just that.

The larger problem is that this conflict is about far more than South Ossetia, the breakaway enclave in Georgia that Russia says it is defending from Georgian troops by sending in its own forces. Russians for centuries have fretted about securing what they call their "near abroad," or countries on their perimeter. In the couple of decades since the Soviet Union broke up, they have seen much of that "near abroad" fall into the Western camp. Ukraine had a democratic "orange revolution" and Georgia a "rose revolution" led by pro-Western President Mikhail Saakashvili.

Russia now wants to grab as much as possible back into its sphere of influence. It also wants to prevent the U.S. from using Georgia as a corridor to transport Caspian oil and gas without going through Iran or Russia.

Putin likely wants to topple the provocative Saakashvili and install a more compliant government in Tbilisi. Unfortunately, U.S. and Western powers have limited leverage. European nations depend on Russian energy supplies. Russia is flush with oil and gas money, so international creditors can't put it in a financial squeeze. The West needs Russian help reining in Iran's nuclear ambitions; Russia has a veto on the United Nations Security Council. Even if the U.S. or NATO wanted to send troops to aid Georgia, they are stretched in Iraq and Afghanistan. And, of course, the pre-emptive invasion of Iraq in 2003 makes it harder for the U.S. to claim moral high ground now.

International pressure and outrage without an "or else" are not the strongest gambits, but they need to be played hard in an effort to defuse the immediate crisis. Even that, however, won't remove the broader challenge of a Putin still in charge and dedicated to a Soviet revival.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usatoday/200...LlSYOO6 s0NUE

__________________
Laissez les bon temps rouler! Going to church doesn't make you a Christian any more than standing in a garage makes you a car.** a 4 day work week & sex slaves ~ I say Tyt for PRESIDENT! Not to be taken internally, literally or seriously ....Suki ebaynni IS THAT BETTER ?

Jolie Rouge

Russia defies truce with Georgia; US sending aid
By CHRISTOPHER TORCHIA and MATTI FRIEDMAN
43 minutes ago

OUTSIDE GORI, Georgia - A Russian military convoy defied a cease-fire agreement Wednesday and rolled through a strategically important city in the former Soviet republic of Georgia, which claimed fresh looting and bombing by the Russians and their allies.

President Bush said a massive U.S. aid package was on the way for tens of thousands uprooted in the conflict and demanded Russia "keep its word and act to end this crisis."

"The United States stands with the democratically elected government of Georgia and insists that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia be respected," Bush said sternly in Washington.

One day after the Kremlin and its smaller neighbor agreed to a French-brokered cease-fire to end the dispute over two pro-Russian breakaway territories, the pact appeared fragile at best.

An Associated Press reporter saw dozens of Russian trucks and armored vehicles leaving the city of Gori, some 20 miles south of the separatist region of South Ossetia and home of a key highway that divides Georgia in two, and moving deeper into Georgia.

Soldiers waved at journalists and one jokingly shouted, "Come with us, beauty, we're going to Tbilisi." The convoy roared southeast, toward the Georgian capital, but then turned north and set up camp about an hour's drive away from it.

Georgian officials said the Russians had looted and bombed Gori before they left. Moscow denied the accusation, but it appeared to be on a technicality: A BBC reporter in Gori said Russian tanks were in the streets while their South Ossetian allies seized cars, looted homes and set houses on fire.

As confusion reigned on the first day of the cease-fire agreement, Bush called a Rose Garden speech to express concern about reports the Russians were already breaking it.

He said he was sending Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice first to France and then to Tbilisi to reinforce U.S. efforts to "rally the world in defense of a free Georgia."

For her part, Rice said: "This is not 1968 and the invasion of Czechoslovakia where Russia can threaten a neighbor, occupy a capital, overthrow a government and get away with it. Things have changed."

The president said a huge U.S. aid effort was under way, including American naval forces and C-17 military cargo planes, to get clothes, blankets, medicine and other supplies to refugees. The European Union agreed to consider deploying European peacekeeping monitors to the area.

Besides the hundreds killed since hostilities broke out last week, a United Nations agency estimates 100,000 Georgians may have been uprooted. A spokesman said the U.N. refugee agency was helping evacuate about 1,500 people fleeing the Kodori Gorge in the breakaway province of Abkhazia alone on Wednesday.

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili conducted a blitz of interviews with news outlets at home and abroad and made a series of claims, some of which were disputed as inaccurate or exaggerated.

He said on national television that the U.S. arrival of a military cargo plane with humanitarian aid "means that Georgia's ports and airports will be taken under the control of the U.S. Defense Department."

Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell stressed the United States had no plans to take over Georgian airports or seaports to deliver the aid.

"It is simply not required for us to fulfill our humanitarian mission," he said. "We have no designs on taking control of any Georgian facility."

In a sharp response to Bush's speech, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called Georgia's leadership "a special project of the United States. And we understand that the United States is worried about its project."

Russian news agencies quoted him saying the United States would have to choose "support for a virtual project" and or "real partnership" on issues such as U.S.-Russian cooperation on Iran and other world tension spots.

Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili criticized Western nations for failing to help Georgia, a U.S. ally that has been seeking NATO membership. "In a way," he said, "Russians are fighting a proxy war with the West through us."

The conflict centers on South Ossetia and another region claimed by Georgia that leans Russian, Abkhazia. When Georgia cracked down on South Ossetia on Aug. 7, Russia sent its tanks and troops into the two regions and deeper into Georgia proper.

Georgia, bordering the Black Sea between Turkey and Russia, was ruled by Moscow for most of the two centuries preceding the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union.

Abkhazia lies close to the heart of many Russians. Its coast was a favorite vacation spot in Soviet times and the province is just down the coast from Sochi, the Russian resort that will host the 2014 Olympics.

Russia has distributed passports to most in South Ossetia and Abkhazia and stationed peacekeepers there since the early 1990s. Georgia wants the peacekeepers out, but Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has insisted they stay.

Jeffrey Mankoff, an adjunct fellow for Russian studies at The Council on Foreign Relations, said it was too soon to tell the real intentions behind Russia's push into Georgia.

"On the one hand this could be a way to set up a buffer zone between the separatist regions, and on the other it also seems there is an aspect of disbanding the Georgian military aspects," Mankoff said.

In defiance, a few dozen Abkhazian fighters, some with assault rifles and one with a dagger, planted their red, white and green flag in Georgian territory across the Inguri River.

"This is Abkhazian land," one of them said. Another laughed that Georgians retreating from Abkhazia had received "American training in running away."

The peace plan apparently would allow Georgian forces to return to the positions they held in South Ossetia and Abkhazia before Aug. 7 and clearly requires Russia to leave all parts of Georgia except South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Nevertheless, Georgian Security Council chief Alexander Lomaia said 50 Russian tanks entered Gori on Wednesday morning. Some of the Russian units that later left to camp outside the city were camouflaged with foliage.

The convoy was mainly support vehicles, including ambulances, although there were a few heavy cannons. There were about 100 combat troops and another 100 medics, drivers and other support personnel.

About six miles away from the camp, about 80 well-equipped Georgian soldiers were forming what appeared to be a new front line, armed with pistols, shoulder-launched anti-tank rockets and Kalashnikovs.

Sporadic clashes continued in South Ossetia where Russians responded to Georgian snipers.

In the Black Sea port of Poti, and Georgian television showed boats ablaze in the harbor. Georgia's security chief also said Russian forces targeted three Georgian boats, while Lavrov said Russian troops were nowhere near the city.

For several days, Russian troops held the western town of Zugdidi near Abkhazia, controlling the region's main highway. An AP reporter saw a convoy of 13 Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers in Zugdidi's outskirts Wednesday. Later in the day, Georgian officials said the Russians pulled out of Zugdidi.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko issued a decree Wednesday saying that Russian navy ships deployed to the Georgian coast will need authorization to return to the navy base Russia leases from Ukraine.

The rights group Human Rights Watch said it has witnessed South Ossetian fighters looting ethnic Georgians' houses and has recorded multiple accounts of Georgian militias intimidating ethnic Ossetians. The report was important independent confirmation of the claims by each side in the Russia-Georgia conflict.

Meanwhile, at the Olympics in Beijing, Georgia and Russia clashed in competition for the first time. Georgia rallied to beat Russia in beach volleyball, two sets to one.

"Russia and Georgia are actually friends. People are friends," said the Georgian beach volleyball team leader, Levan Akhtulediani. "I say once again, its better to compete on the field rather than outside the field.

Associated Press writers Christopher Torchia reported from Zugdidi, Georgia, and near the Kodori Gorge; Matti Friedman and Sergei Grits from outside Gori, Georgia; Misha Dzhindzhikhashvili and David Nowak from Tbilisi, Georgia; Vladimir Isachenkov, Jim Heintz, Lynn Berry and Angela Charlton in Moscow; Matthew Lee, Pauline Jelinek and Lolita C. Baldor in Washington; John Heilprin at the United Nations; and Carley Petesch in New York contributed to this report.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/georgia_r....2MPTPZBes0NUE

__________________
Laissez les bon temps rouler! Going to church doesn't make you a Christian any more than standing in a garage makes you a car.** a 4 day work week & sex slaves ~ I say Tyt for PRESIDENT! Not to be taken internally, literally or seriously ....Suki ebaynni IS THAT BETTER ?

ElleGee

This is not going to end well....I can feel it

__________________

Jolie Rouge

Q & A on Georgia
August 12, 2008

Clifford J. Levy, Moscow bureau chief, and James Traub, a contributing writer for The New York Times Magazine, are answering questions from readers about the Russian-Georgian conflict. Questions may be sent to askthetimes@nytimes.com.

Q. I've read your pieces with great interest for many years and appreciate your insight. The Georgia-Russia conflict will be analyzed through many lenses but one I'd like to ask your view about is the vast efforts of the "conflict resolution" community, funded in part by USAID and other bilaterals as well as the United Nations that has brought opposing sides to the table and attempted to bring about "grassroots" conflict resolution, and thus prevent future conflicts. In your opinion are the recent happenings a sign of the failure of the sector to impact "high-politics"? And is this failure due to political and military elites not being adequately integrated into these dialog processes?

— Scott Lang, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina

A. Scott: Conflict resolution works only when the sides want to have their conflicts resolved. The United Nations has engaged in extensive efforts to mediate the conflict in Iraq without having much to show for it — because, in the end, the sides would rather fight than talk. And yes, as you suggest, ultimately such talks must incorporate the decision-makers. For several years now, international NGOs have staged so-called "Track II" talks between Abkhaz and Georgian figures. The talks between civil society folk have gone well, and shown each the concerns of the other. But the talks between government officials have only hardened feelings on both sides. So the net effect has been zero.

This conflict, however, is not between Georgia and South Osssetia or Abkhazia, but between Georgia and Russia. And great powers like Russia rarely show much interest in U.N. or private conflict resolution. They cannot easily be pressured to submit to mediation. The kind of conflict resolution efforts you mention are more likely to succeed between, say, Nigeria and Cameroon.

— James Traub

Is This Different Than Kosovo?

Q. Outside of politics do you see differences between Russia's response to the actions of Georgia in South Ossetia and the United States' battling back of Serbia in Kosovo in 1999?

— Vladimir Sevastyanov

A. Russia makes just this comparison, arguing that Abkhazia and South Ossetia are ethnic enclaves threatened by a violent neighbor, just as the West says that Kosovo was. Georgia conducted very bloody wars with both republics in the early '90s; atrocities were committed on all sides. Georgia's behavior sowed hatred, which is still very much alive, and which the Georgians, in general, refuse to acknowledge. But differences in degree matter.

Slobodan Milosevic is estimated to have killed tens of thousands of Bosnians before he got around to his campaign of ethnic cleansing in Kosovo. The West had every reason to fear that he would not rest until Kosovo was rid of Kosovars. NATO's decision to roll back the Serbian onslaught was thus based on real expectations of the unspeakable.

In South Ossetia, on the other hand, Georgia engaged in shelling that may have been indiscriminate — we don't know yet. It may have been responding to attacks from Ossetian irregulars and from Russians — we don't know yet. But there is no reason to believe that Georgia committed war crimes.

Serbia engaged in a campaign of ethnic cleansing, first against Bosnia, then against Kosovo; what the Serbs did in the Balkans is worse by far than anything the Georgians did in their own neighborhood. Nevertheless, having said that, Georgia never fully reckoned with the strength of nationalist feeling in both areas.


— James Traub

The Costs of a Military Buildup

Q. I read on the Internet that Georgia spends 15 percent of its gross domestic product and 70 percent of its government budget on the military. Is this true? If so, do any other nations spend such a high proportion on the military? Does it make sense for such a poor nation as Georgia to spend this amount on the military? The crux of my question is, does Georgia suffer from the philosophy "if the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail"?

— Gregg Spindler

A. Gregg: I don't know about the statistics. But the fact is that Georgia has gone on a binge of defense spending in the last few years. The Georgians say they had to ratchet up to face the Russian threat. But the Abkhaz, the Ossetians and the Russians themselves view this as a sign of aggression. And the futility of the endeavor is now manifest, for Russia largely pounded Georgia's army. Oddly enough, the economic effect has not been so grave, since Georgia is — or at least has been — enjoying growth of 12 percent a year. The Georgians are not starving themselves to buy weapons. But they are contributing to tensions without doing themselves much good.


— James Traub

Are Reports of Atrocities Credible?

Q. How reliable are reports of atrocities committed by Georgian troops in the South Ossetia capital? The Russians are saying that several thousand civilians have been killed, including women and children being run over by tanks.

— Hudson

A. Hudson: The Russians and the Ossetians have been floating a series of appalling claims since the hostilities began. But are they true? This is a region in which virtually all military acts are denounced as "ethnic cleansing," if not "genocide." Russia has even sought to invoke the doctrine known as "responsibility to protect," arguing that troops invaded Georgia in order to prevent atrocities against Ossetians. Since it seems that Georgia had already withdrawn its troops from Ossetia, this was probably a specious claim.

But the fact that the reports cannot be taken at face value doesn't mean that they're without foundation. Independent eyewitnesses have confirmed that major damage was done in the Ossetian capital of Tshkanvili, perhaps by Georgian artillery. Many civilians may have died. But it will be some while yet before these claims can be confirmed — or, for that matter, before we have an entirely clear idea of how the fighting started.


— James Traub

A Bad Sign for Other Countries?

Q. How likely is it that Russia completely occupies Georgia? And if so, would they do so permanently? This situation does not seem to bode well for other former Soviet-bloc countries. Which one is going to be invaded next?

— Richard Nile

A. Richard: One apparent difference between Putin's Russia and Khrushchev's, or that of Catharine the Great, is that it does not feel a need to actually annex territory in order to exert control. Vladimir V. Putin (and now Dmitri A. Medvedev) use economic threats more often than military action. Here, of course, the Russians used tanks and bombers; but they have stopped short of actual conquest. The goal, apparently, was to terrify Georgia into compliance. And the more Russia is seen to have succeeded, the likelier it is to continue with its aggressive and bullying tactics elsewhere — again, not with bullets and bombs, but with oil and natural gas, or cyber-attacks, or diplomatic provocations. So yes, it bodes badly for Russia's other neighbors — above all, Ukraine.


— James Traub

Can U.S. Afford to Confront Russia?

Q. How does the conflict between Georgia and Russia affect the United States' efforts to work with Russia on issues related to the containment of Iran?

— Dan Spokojny

A. Dan: This is precisely what Bush administration officials are asking themselves right now. Can we afford to confront Russia over Georgia, if we need to bring Russia in line with sanctions on Iran? This is why diplomacy is hard. But these trade-offs often prove self-defeating. If the United States does not confront Russia over Georgia, that will not necessarily translate into help on Iran and other issues — and it might embolden Russia in its increasingly confrontational approach to relations with the West. Europe has generally taken a more accommodating line with Russia; but to what effect? Putin's Russia seems to take a zero-sum approach to diplomacy: You must lose if I am to win. It's not clear that Russia can be cajoled into a more cooperative approach.


— James Traub

__________________
Laissez les bon temps rouler! Going to church doesn't make you a Christian any more than standing in a garage makes you a car.** a 4 day work week & sex slaves ~ I say Tyt for PRESIDENT! Not to be taken internally, literally or seriously ....Suki ebaynni IS THAT BETTER ?

Jolie Rouge

Did U.S. Intelligence Fail?

Q. Do you agree that the apparent failure of U.S. intelligence to anticipate that the Georgians were planning an assault on South Ossetia and that the Russians were in position to intervene very rapidly is a major error? Also how can it be that the United States had not warned Mr. Saakashvili that an assault would lead to a disaster? Finally, what sanctions could the United States apply against Russia other than trivial ones, like canceling joint exercises, since any serious sanctions would just result in the Russians ceasing to cooperate regarding Iran?

— Pat Duignan

A. I’m not sure that you can harshly criticize American intelligence for not predicting exactly when fighting would break out. There have been regular skirmishes in the disputed territory of South Ossetia for months between Georgian troops, fighters loyal to the South Ossetian separatist govenrment and Russian forces. Analysts have long suggested that conflicts over either South Ossetia or Abkhazia might spark a wider war. The question was when. The issue of whether the United States adequately warned Mr. Saakashvili about the perils of engaging the Russians is just as complicated. American diplomats have insisted that while they assured Mr. Saakashvili that the United States was a staunch ally of Georgia, they also made clear that the alliance went only so far. They say they warned him that a war with Russia would be catastrophic. Regarding sanctions, such a move seems very unlikely. Russia is one of the world’s major suppliers of oil and gas, especially to Europe. Washington’s European allies would be in no mood to jeopardize their energy sources. And of course, Iran’s nuclear aspirations loom large here as well. Without Russia’s support in the United Nations Security Council, any action against Iran would be toothless.

— Clifford J. Levy

Georgia's NATO Hopes

Q. Does Russia's recent actions in Georgia mean that the door for Georgia joining NATO has been permamently shut? Furthermore, could their actions expedite the addition of Ukraine, specifically, into NATO? Or would such an action be deemed provocative?

— Alfred Azen

A. This is a very pertinent question. The secretary general of NATO, Jaap de Hoop Scheaffer made a point of stating that the war would not affect Georgia's application for NATO membership. This is almost certainly not true, but it was a message intended for Russia. The real question: Will it affect Georgia's aspiration positively or negatively? Georgia will likely make the case that only NATO can protect it from further Russian depredations. This may be true, but for that very reason this will now inevitably be viewed as an anti-Russian act. Washington and the major European capitals have tried very hard in the past to persuade Russia that NATO is no longer an anti-Russian alliance. More to the point, Russia would be outraged by the decision, and the NATO allies must decide if they are willing to pay the price. But what about the price of complying with Russian wishes in the aftermath of Russian aggression? Is that a signal that the West can afford to send — to Russia, to Georgia and to other nations in the region which seek to pursue an independent foreign policy?


— James Traub

Effects on Russian Oil Markets?

Q. In the background Russia is threatening to use oil and natural gas as a weapon. How much is this a two-edged sword? It would appear that the bulk of all the oil and natural gas Russia sells is going to Western Europe via fixed pipelines (versus via oil tankers out of the Black Sea and Primorsk). If that is the case, then are the Russians setting themselves up for an economic shock if Western Europe decides that they can no longer trust Russia and thus begin as quickly as possible to diversify their importation of energy from other sources; e.g., liquefied natural gas from North Africa, pipelines through Turkey, etc. If Europe stops buying its oil, where else can Russia sell it? After this episode with Georgia, will China want to be tied to Russian oil?

— Norman Oppenheimer

A. As is so often the case when it comes to oil and gas, the question is timing. Europe can certainly decide that it can no longer assume the risk of relying on natural resources from Russia because it fears that its Russian supplies are being used as a weapon in all sorts of geopolitical disputes. Yet how long will it take to diversify? What would happen next winter when tensions flare, Russia retaliates and people in Berlin can’t heat their homes? This is essentially the bind the Europeans find themselves in. And it seems to color their relations with Moscow, often causing them to shy away from confrontation. The Kremlin has from time to time gone out of its way to offer assurances that it will be a reliable partner. Yet at the same time, Europeans can’t help but notice incidents like the one that occurred last month: three days after the Czech Republic signed an agreement with the United States to host a tracking radar for an antiballistic missile system that Russia vehemently opposes, the flow of Russian oil to their country was curbed. At this point at least, the Russians don’t have to worry about finding other places to sell their oil and gas. With prices so high, Russian leaders, like their counterparts in places like Iran and Venezuela, have become emboldened — at least in the short term. In the long term, higher prices and concerns about Russian suppliers could of course put pressure on Europe to embrace new technologies and new sources of energy, just as in America people are now giving up their big cars. But this process takes time.

— Clifford J. Levy

Repercussions of Independence

Q. What would be the repercussions to the interests of the European Union, the United States and NATO of recognizing South Ossetian independence? Are there overwhelmingly important strategic reasons (involving perhaps oil or nuclear arms) that the desire for self-determination on the part of the South Ossetians cannot be respected?

— Mary MacDonald

A. The issue is not really South Ossetia itself, but the precedent it would set. The Russians, for example, continue to express bitterness over American and European support for the independence of Kosovo from Serbia. The Kremlin has often suggested that if the people of Kosovo deserve independence, then so do the people of South Ossetia and the other disputed province in Georgia, Abkhazia. Any time a separatist region receives independence (or even support for independence from major powers), it serves to embolden other regions with similar aspirations. Of course, it could be argued that Russia is not entirely consistent when it comes to this theme. After all, the Kremlin used intense military force to thwart the independence of Chechnya from Russia, even as it has backed the two breakaway Georgian areas.

— Clifford J. Levy

If Georgia Had Been a NATO Member . . .

Q. If, as both George Bush and Mikheil Saaskashvili wished, Georgia had been a member of NATO, would this have been a sufficient, or even a significant deterrent to the Russians? And if they had attacked (South Ossetia and Abkhazia) nonetheless, how likely is it that NATO would have reacted militarily? In light of what has happened, should the United States be more circumspect in promoting NATO membership for countries of the former Soviet bloc?

— Peter Norall

A. If Georgia had been a member of NATO when fighting with Russia broke out, we would be arguably dealing with a far graver crisis now. NATO members are obligated to come to the aid of one another when they are attacked. In other words, the United States and other European powers would technically have been required to take up arms against Russia in defense of Georgia. Would Russia have sent its troops into Georgia had it known that it would have triggered a NATO response? That’s impossible to parse out. Suffice it to say that the Kremlin has expressed strong opposition to NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine. Regarding former Soviet republics, the Baltic states — Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia — are already in NATO. Whether the United States should be more circumspect toward admitting other former Soviet republics depends in part on whether you believe that a) such new members needlessly antagonize Moscow while offering few benefits for the United States or b) NATO helps spread the kind of democratic, Western values that Washington should be supporting. President Bush, who favors membership for Georgia and Ukraine, clearly believes the latter. But the more that Russia gets ringed with NATO members, the more the Kremlin is going to bristle.

— Clifford J. Levy

Is It All About the Oil Pipelines?

Q. Isn't it true that the whole confrontation between Russia and Georgia is about control of the oil pipelines from neighboring Azerbaijan to Black Sea ports?

— Yan Feldman, Marlboro, N.J.

A. Pipelines may have played a role, but I doubt it was a determinative one. There is a lot going on in this conflict: lingering resentment in the Kremlin about Russia’s loss of influence in the 1990s, and a resulting desire to prove that the country is once again a power and can stand up to the West; personal animosity between the Georgian president and the Russian leadership; longstanding territorial disputes; historical relationships between Moscow and the former Soviet republics; ethnic conflicts, and so on. It’s hard to isolate just one factor.

— Clifford J. Levy

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/14/wo...&oref=s login

__________________
Laissez les bon temps rouler! Going to church doesn't make you a Christian any more than standing in a garage makes you a car.** a 4 day work week & sex slaves ~ I say Tyt for PRESIDENT! Not to be taken internally, literally or seriously ....Suki ebaynni IS THAT BETTER ?

Jolie Rouge

Russia: Georgia can 'forget' regaining provinces
By DAVID NOWAK and CHRISTOPHER TORCHIA
38 minutes ago

TBILISI, Georgia - The foreign minister of Russia said Thursday that Georgia could "forget about" getting back its two breakaway provinces, and the former Soviet republic remained on edge as Russia sent tank columns to search out and destroy Georgian military equipment.

Uncertainty about Russia's intentions and back-and-forth charges clouded the conflict two days after Russia and Georgia signaled acceptance of a French-brokered cease-fire, and a week after Georgia's crackdown on the two provinces drew a Russian military response.

Diplomats focused on finalizing a fragile cease-fire between the two nations and clear the way for Russian withdrawal. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was heading Friday for Georgia to press the president to sign the deal.

Georgian officials accused Russia of sending a column of tanks and other armored vehicles toward Kutaisi, the second-largest city in Georgia, then said the convey stopped about 35 miles out. "We have no idea what they're doing there, why the movement, where they're going," Georgian Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze said in a telephone briefing. "One explanation could be they are trying to rattle the civilian population."

The U.S. said a move toward Kutaisi would be a matter of great concern, but two defense officials told The Associated Press the Pentagon did not detect any major movement by Russia troops or tanks. There was no immediate response from Russia itself. "I think the world should think very carefully about what is going on here," Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili said. "We need to stop everything that can be stopped now."

The Russian president met in the Kremlin with the leaders of the provinces, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, a clear sign Moscow could absorb the regions even though the territory is internationally recognized as being within Georgia's borders. And Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov issued a blunt message to Georgia and the world that appeared to challenge President Bush's demand a day earlier that Russia must respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia. "One can forget about any talk about Georgia's territorial integrity because, I believe, it is impossible to persuade South Ossetia and Abkhazia to agree with the logic that they can be forced back into the Georgian state."

The White House said Thursday that the U.S. position was unchanged and dismissed Lavrov's remark as bluster. Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned Russia was in danger of hurting relations with the U.S. "for years to come" but said he did not see "any prospect" for the use of American military force in Georgia.

As the military and diplomatic battles played out, relief planes swooped into Tbilisi with tons of supplies for the estimated 100,000 people uprooted by the fighting. U.S. officials said their two planes carried cots, blankets, medicine and surgical supplies — but the Russians insinuated that the United States, a Georgia ally, might have sent in military aid as well. U.S. officials rejected the claim.

Even as the relief rolled in, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon warned the fighting and lawlessness was keeping it from reaching large parts of Georgia. In some places, relief officials were overwhelmed by the sheer numbers of refugees. "This is too much. It is all too much," said Manana Karelidze, a 50-year-old retired accountant, who said she had waited for days at the Department of Refugees in the Georgian capital for registration and dry pasta. There were hundreds like her.

Russian troops spent the day searching selected cities, forests and fields for military equipment left behind by Georgian forces.

The Georgian ambassador to the United States, H.E. Vasil Sikharulidze, said Russia was employing "scorched-earth" tactics — destroying Georgian commercial and military infrastructure and burning down religious sites beyond the conflict area of South Ossetia. "What defenses does Georgia have? Because of the cease-fire agreement, which Russia has not honored, Georgian troops are being moved to organize a defensive line 10 kilometers (six miles) away from Tbilisi," he said.

Sikharulidze said an attack on Kutaisi would be a "catastrophe,"

On the edge of the strategically important city of Gori, Georgian soldiers pointed their weapons at Russian forces, and explosions and small arms fire broke out in the distance.

Georgia claimed Russians had left the oil port city of Poti, but hours later some forces were still there. Georgia also accused Russia of using short-range missiles in Poti and Gori, showing reporters purported images of shrapnel. There was no immediate response from Russia.

Russian and Georgian troops briefly patrolled Gori, but relations between the two sides broke down and the Georgians left. At least 20 explosions were heard later near Gori, along with small-arms fire.

It was not clear whether it was renewed fighting or the disposal of ordnance from a nearby Georgian military base. Russia said its troops were there to establish contact with the civilian administration and take over abandoned military depots.

Gori, battered by Russian bombing over the week, lies on Georgia's main east-west road only 60 miles west of Tbilisi. AP Television News footage showed Russian troops in and near Gori, and Georgia said it was checking the area for mines.

An AP Television News crew heard explosions at a military base in the western city of Senaki and were told by officials from both Russia and Georgia that the Russians were destroying ordnance. Dozens of Russian armored vehicles and troops later set up for the night under camouflage on the main road from Senaki north to Zugdidi.

The same APTN crew followed Russian troops on the outskirts of Poti as they searched a field and a forest at an old Soviet military base for possible Georgian military equipment.

Georgia's coast guard said Russian troops burned four Georgian patrol boats in Poti on Wednesday, then returned Thursday to loot and destroy the coast guard's radar and other equipment.

Another APTN camera crew saw Russian soldiers and military vehicles parked inside the Georgian government's elegant gated residence in the western town of Zugdidi. Some of the Russian soldiers wore blue peacekeeping helmets, others wore green camouflage helmets, all were heavily armed. Other Russian troops patrolled the city. "We don't want them here. What we need is friendship and good relations with the Russian people," Ygor Gegenava, an elderly Zugdidi resident, told the APTN crew.

In London, BP PLC said it resumed pumping natural gas Thursday through one Georgia pipeline, but two oil pipelines in Georgia remain closed.

The Russian General Prosecutor's office said it had formally opened a genocide probe into Georgian treatment of South Ossetians. Georgia sued Russia in international court, alleging murder, rape and mass expulsions of Georgians in both provinces.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080815/...ZRtI2zFa.s0NUE

__________________
Laissez les bon temps rouler! Going to church doesn't make you a Christian any more than standing in a garage makes you a car.** a 4 day work week & sex slaves ~ I say Tyt for PRESIDENT! Not to be taken internally, literally or seriously ....Suki ebaynni IS THAT BETTER ?

Jolie Rouge

For candidates, Georgia crisis provides a revealing audition
Fri Aug 15, 12:23 AM ET

Hillary Clinton's "3 a.m. phone call" ad in March was widely mocked for melodramatically asking who voters wanted answering the phone in the White House in the middle of the night when serious trouble struck somewhere in the world.

But the ad's scenario sprang to life a week ago when President Bush and the two men running to succeed him all got urgent word — likely sometime early Aug. 8 in the USA — that Russia was invading neighboring Georgia, a former Soviet satellite. It wasn't a direct attack on the United States, but it wasn't far down the urgency scale: Russia's move not only put a staunch U.S. ally in deep peril, it also sent a chilling signal to other Western-leaning nations in the region.

How to react? Prudently, none of the three — Bush, Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama — called for direct U.S. military intervention. Beyond that, their initial responses were revealing tests of their foreign-policy and crisis instincts, and none was completely reassuring:


• Bush, the only one of the three for whom this wasn't an audition, was in Beijing at the Olympics when the invasion occurred and appeared disengaged early on. The immediate White House reaction came from aides.

Bush got sharper and more involved as time wore on, eventually denouncing Russia's "dramatic and brutal escalation" as its forces attacked more broadly in Georgia. He dispatched Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to support diplomatic efforts and announced he'd deploy U.S. troops to deliver humanitarian supplies, a canny way to inject a military presence without threatening combat.

• McCain immediately put the blame squarely on Russia and demanded it "unconditionally cease its military operations and withdraw all forces."

McCain's response grew from his longtime friendship with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and his uncompromising antipathy toward Russia's expansionism. He has mocked Bush for trying to engage former Russian president Vladimir Putin and would rather try to isolate Russia than work with it in world bodies. McCain has a more clear-eyed assessment of Putin's ambitions than Bush does, but the senator's boldness bordering on belligerence undervalues this reality: The U.S. needs Russian help in restraining Iran's nuclear ambitions and in keeping radioactive materials out of the hands of terrorists.

McCain's tendency to speak out can also make him sound unaware; his declaration Wednesday that "in the 21st century, nations don't invade other nations" comically ignored the fact that the U.S. invaded Iraq in 2003, an attack he supported.


• Obama, on his way to a vacation in Hawaii, was more hesitant than McCain at first, mildly calling on both Georgia and Russia "to show restraint and to avoid an escalation to full-scale war." He declared that "all sides should enter into direct talks on behalf of stability in Georgia."

Obama anticipated international calls for a truce and reflected the reality that the confrontation began after Georgian troops attacked Russian-allied separatists in a disputed part of Georgia. But his initial response underplayed the magnitude of Russia's aggression, and Obama later toughened his stance, saying it was "clear" that Russia had "encroached on Georgia's sovereignty."

By week's end, Bush, McCain and Obama had arrived at about the same place. As the situation continues to evolve, what's clear is that most crises last longer than a 3 a.m. phone call, and a president's initial reaction is rarely as important as what he does to deploy the tools of foreign policy over time. By that standard, Bush is on the right track, and the candidates — as befits the tradition that calls for the nation to speak with one voice in a showdown such as this — are appropriately supportive.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usatoday/200...cJ8oEBD078B2YD

__________________
Laissez les bon temps rouler! Going to church doesn't make you a Christian any more than standing in a garage makes you a car.** a 4 day work week & sex slaves ~ I say Tyt for PRESIDENT! Not to be taken internally, literally or seriously ....Suki ebaynni IS THAT BETTER ?

mesue