A cultural disconnect in Dixie
Mon Feb 7, 2005
By Dan Gilgoff
DURHAM, N.C.--The hundred or so Democratic activists gathered in an auditorium at North Carolina Central University on a January weeknight to meet with state party bigwigs have each been given two paper flags--one green, one red. When someone says something they agree with, attendees are supposed to wave green flags; if they disagree, they wave the red. Plenty of the proposals elicit green flags, like withdrawing from Iraq. Then a member of the state party's executive committee suggests reaching out to NASCAR dads. "We have churches and values," she says, "and we have to make that clear." A wave of red flags ripples across the room. Grumbles activist Don Esterling, 62: "We don't need to be Republican light."
Or maybe they do. In the American South, the ranks of Democratic senators have shrunk from 20 to four since 1980, and the party's presidential ticket has lost every state for the second time in a row. "This is the worst it's been for Democrats here . . . since Reconstruction," says Emory University Prof. Merle Black. And yet a handful of "red" state governors, including North Carolina's Mike Easley, Tennessee's Phil Bredesen, and Virginia's Mark Warner, have proved Democrats can win in the South, partly by irking party activists with NRA endorsements and support for capital punishment. "I'm a former prosecutor, a hunter, love to drive race cars, have very strong religious beliefs," says Easley. "That's everything you'd think of as conservative." But while it's possible for Easley to distance himself from the national party, it's a tougher gambit for presidential hopefuls.
Democrats lost their iron grip on Dixie after spearheading the civil rights bills of the 1960s. The New South's economic boom attracted fiscally conservative northerners, while the political realignment of the region's evangelical Christians hastened the GOP ascendancy. The last few years have seen, for the first time, more southern voters identifying as Republicans than as Democrats or independents. That helps explain why, last fall, five Senate seats vacated by retiring Democrats fell into GOP hands.
Values. But the South's successful Democrats have compensated for liberal stances on social issues like abortion by convincing voters of their personal values. Easley, for example, is pro-choice but talks openly about his faith. "If people see the candidate as a strong believer," says Easley adviser Mac McCorkle, "issues take care of themselves." Former four-term North Carolina Gov. Jim Hunt, a Democrat, says he framed educational initiatives as what God wants : "Too many of our candidates are reluctant to mention God. [Voters] think if you don't talk about it, you must not have those feelings."
Kerry discussed his faith on the campaign trail reluctantly and was perceived in the South as culturally foreign, "a windsurfer and snowboarder," says University of North Carolina Prof. Ferrel Guillory. While Tennessee's Bredesen is, like Kerry, a northeasterner--raised in New York State--he stressed his rural upbringing and trap-shooting prowess on the stump. "They will vote for a Democrat here, but they have to feel good about the person," says Tennessee Democratic Chairman Randy Button.
Even if Democratic Senate and presidential hopefuls learn to connect personally with southern voters, it's unclear if the winning strategies of southern Democratic state officeholders can hold up in national races. Virginia's Warner, for instance, has reined ina spiraling budget deficit and instituted popular education reforms but has been able to duck divisive national issues like the Iraq war. Southern voters want button-down governors who "keep schools open and roads paved," says Guillory, "but see federal officeholders much more ideologically." Which means, in North Carolina, many voters split ballots between Easley and Bush. "[Easley has] done right by education and attracted employers," says Ann Barnhill, 50, a Greenville lawyer who voted for Easley but backed Bush to show wartime military support and because she detects a softening national morality.
Can Democrats produce a nominee in '08 who wins over southerners without bringing on "Republican light" charges from party activists? Easley says recent history isn't reassuring. "Too often, we're cheering the candidate at the convention," he says, "while looking around at one another saying, 'Hmmm . . . he's not gonna do well at home.' "
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