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Dick Morris had the following to say in his New York Post column today:
Quote:
QUOTE: “Clark’s rise is clearly a media-inspired flavor of the week. When Dean graced the front pages of Time and Newsweek, he was similarly honored with a first-place rating. Clark’s surge is not so much a testament to his strength as to the weakness of Bush on the one hand and the Democratic field on the other.
Clark will not wear well. His early gaffes show his inexperience. He would be a bit like a latter-day Dwight D. Eisenhower, except that nobody can quite recall what war it is that he won. The initial enthusiasm for his candidacy really came from Europe, where this general-who-opposes-war is the kind of guy only the elites of Paris can truly love. The only primary he has locked up is Democrats abroad.
But then Bill Clinton picked up the Clark banner and had his staff rally around his fellow Arkansan. Why? Hillary and Bill support confusion, chaos and consternation as their preferred strategy for Democrats in 2004. Determined that nobody but they capture the White House - or even the Democratic Party - the Clintons are opposed to anyone who gains momentum.
In the long run, Dean’s momentum will prove real and Clark’s will be seen as bogus. Dean has amassed a base of grassroots (or cyber-roots) support by tapping into two groups - gays and peaceniks. His message spread among them not as a result of top-down advertising but by the new Internet style of viral, horizontal marketing. Gays and their supporters and anti-war zealots spread the word among themselves that Dean was their man. The result was a genuine outpouring of backing from small donors and local activists.
The Dean candidacy is the first creation of the Internet age. By contrast, Clark’s is perhaps the last of the media-created candidacies. Dean’s support will carry him through the early primaries. He will likely score one-punch knockouts in Iowa of Gephardt, in New Hampshire of Kerry, and in South Carolina of Edwards.” END QUOTE.
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If Morris is correct, the Clintons lose big-time! Also, if he’s right, it will be interesting to see how fast the Clintons jump ship from Wes Clark. And does that mean that Hillary has to get in the race to stop Dean?
Conclusions
It is going to be very interesting to see how this political battle plays out between Clark and the Clintons against Howard Dean. The most recent polls on the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary show Dean ahead, but these were taken before Clark got in the race. New polls should be out in the next week or so when we will know more about Clark’s popularity in these early primaries which will be pivotal.
As for Hillary’s intentions, I wouldn’t make a bet either way at this point. The keys to her decision (assuming there is one) will be: 1) Bush’s approval ratings; and 2) whether Clark can snuff out Dean. Also, keep in mind that the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary is November 21. If she wants to run in the primaries, she needs to file by then. We’ll see.
Bush’s approval ratings seem to have stabilized in the low-to-mid 50s. While they could drift lower, they could also go up. Economic news should be very encouraging for the 3Q; some economists expect the GDP number to be above 5%, maybe even 6%. If true, the media can’t ignore that. Plus, Bush has not begun to campaign yet. When he does, his ratings should go up as well.
One thing is for sure: the battle between Clark and Dean is for the heart and soul of the Democratic party. It will decide, once and for all, whether the Clintons maintain their control of the party, or they fade into the sunset. It may also decide whether Hillary runs for president. Not surprisingly, most Republicans are quietly pulling for Dean.
All the best,
Gary D. Halbert